4 ms·
The prerequisite is really "can print their own money AND can borrow, at a scale commensurate with their GDP, in that currency" The theory goes that a country
by bodyfour 15y ago
The prerequisite is really "can print their own money AND can borrow, at a scale commensurate with their GDP, in that currency"
The theory goes that a country like US/UK/Japan/etc always has the capability of paying their $/£/¥/etc debts (modulo political idiocy like the US debt ceiling standoff). Of course it might be painful from an inflation standpoint, but that would always be better than a default. Therefore the interest-rate relates to the risk of inflation making the repayment less valuable, not the risk of a literal default.
Since individual eurozone members don't have that privilege, their interest rates are high leading to a potential death spiral (risk of non-payment -> rates go higher -> debt more expensive -> risk is now higher) The theory behind the "eurobond" solution is that since the ECB can print euros it would remove the default risk so in theory interest rates would be limited to inflation risk.
You make a good point about the business climate numbers though. I don't see how a guaranteed-in-common Eurobond is ever going to fly with economies like Greece in the mix. Italy probably has some hope of reform if they want it badly enough, but it would be a big step for them.
- Atropos 15y agoI do understand the debt spiral argument. However if you look at eurostat public debt graphs (http://goo.gl/XX9f5 http://goo.gl/XX9f5) it seems to me that Italy,Spain,Finland "Debt to GDP" all went down from 1995 to 2008, of course then the financial crisis drove it way up. If I recall correctly it is always reported that Italy now has the highest borrowing costs since the introduction of the euro zone, but that it had even higher debt + interest rates in lira areas... However Greece is a totally different graph, it seems that the Euro gave access to cheap credit for the first time and they took as much as they could get. Or some of the former numbers are fake, who knows. I guess there are two problems: 1) Current interest rates are unsustainably high 2) Unsustainable public policies... Eurobonds would probably solve 1) but increase the danger that 2) doesn't get addressed.