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I disagree. I mean this wasn't a perfect UBI experiment, but there are some core assumptions baked in to the arguments I used to make that are clearly flawed.

I disagree. I mean this wasn't a perfect UBI experiment, but there are some core assumptions baked in to the arguments I used to make that are clearly flawed. In particular it was as close as you're ever going to get to being "universal". For obvious reasons, every other experiment I've ever seen made or proposed was not, and I think that's a pretty significant aspect to the idea.

woodruffw 4y ago
The flaw isn't just in the fact that it wasn't universal (I didn't receive money, for example). It's also in the fact that most (nearly all?) of the people receiving money were receiving it in lieu of income, and in fact were disabled from obtaining income. Tack that onto a snarled global supply chain, and it's very difficult to pull meaningful outcomes from the noise: did people increase luxury and discretionary purchases just because they could, or were they influenced by an early glut of staple food purchases? Did people increase discretionary spending to entertain children and compensate for a lack of time spent outdoors and socializing? Did they purchase more expensive foodgoods for similar reasons? I am not a particular proponent of UBI. But I don't think we (meaning us laypeople on HN) are going to be able, from our vantage point, to draw a useful conclusion from the last 30 months' economic activity. It's simply too weird.
- adastra22 4y ago
  You could have received money, if you quit your job.
  - woodruffw 4y ago
    Right. Which is among the reasons why it isn’t UBI, and is an adjacent factor for why it’s a poor proxy for UBI research.
    - adastra22 4y ago
      Except so many people did do exactly that. UBI enthusiasts are saying people won’t quit their jobs etc. if it isn’t universal and forever. But they did.
      - woodruffw 4y ago
        I don't know what a "UBI enthusiast" is, but I'm not it. I'm not aware of anybody who claims that people won't quit their jobs if you (1) make them stay indoors and (2) give them money, and (3) invert the economy (justifiably!) for 6 months. The claim that UBI advocates make is that UBI, when actually applied, is just a negative income tax. Alaska has one, and it doesn't make people quit their jobs.

woodruffw 4y ago

The flaw isn't just in the fact that it wasn't universal (I didn't receive money, for example). It's also in the fact that most (nearly all?) of the people receiving money were receiving it in lieu of income, and in fact were disabled from obtaining income. Tack that onto a snarled global supply chain, and it's very difficult to pull meaningful outcomes from the noise: did people increase luxury and discretionary purchases just because they could, or were they influenced by an early glut of staple food purchases? Did people increase discretionary spending to entertain children and compensate for a lack of time spent outdoors and socializing? Did they purchase more expensive foodgoods for similar reasons? I am not a particular proponent of UBI. But I don't think we (meaning us laypeople on HN) are going to be able, from our vantage point, to draw a useful conclusion from the last 30 months' economic activity. It's simply too weird.

adastra22 4y ago
You could have received money, if you quit your job.
- woodruffw 4y ago
  Right. Which is among the reasons why it isn’t UBI, and is an adjacent factor for why it’s a poor proxy for UBI research.
  - adastra22 4y ago
    Except so many people did do exactly that. UBI enthusiasts are saying people won’t quit their jobs etc. if it isn’t universal and forever. But they did.
    - woodruffw 4y ago
      I don't know what a "UBI enthusiast" is, but I'm not it. I'm not aware of anybody who claims that people won't quit their jobs if you (1) make them stay indoors and (2) give them money, and (3) invert the economy (justifiably!) for 6 months. The claim that UBI advocates make is that UBI, when actually applied, is just a negative income tax. Alaska has one, and it doesn't make people quit their jobs.