3 ms·

What will be the effects on betting once the outcomes from the models have been priced in. I suspect odds will get wildly out of balance.

rybosome 4y ago
I was wondering about that as well. Somebody is going to make a killing before they close the loophole, a modern day casino heist.
- NavinF 4y ago
  The abstract talks about predicting 48 frames ahead. Is realtime sports betting even a thing? And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough to enter/exit say a $10,000 position that quickly?
  - csa 4y ago
    > Is realtime sports betting even a thing? Yes. It’s a growth area in sports betting. > And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough to enter/exit say a $10,000 position that quickly? In some sports, sure. Probably not in volleyball. The threat in the field is that some people have a slightly faster access to info than others (3-5 secs for live versus broadcast, iirc). If the result of an algo can push a betting line (e.g., predicting a tying point in a volleyball match), then automated bet placement software/script can make a prediction and get a bet in before the action is seen by bettors who are watching on broadcast. Even without prediction software, this is a very real problem with real time sports betting right now. It seems like functional prediction software can make this knowledge gap larger.
  - traceroute66 4y ago
    > Is realtime sports betting even a thing? And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough I think the question you really need to be asking is .... Is there a house that will let me do this ? The house tends not to like consistent winners.
    - evandijk70 4y ago
      Betfair works like a market - you are not betting against the house, but rather against other bettors. Betfair takes a commission from each matched bet. They would probably allow it - More matched bets means more profit for them.
      - cwilkes 4y ago
        That’s interesting. Do they publish the history of what it costs to place a bet? There’s quite a few variables that go into the pricing: how much you think a team will win by and the payout if you win the bet. So there can be multiple tracks for “I think my team will win by 7 points” and there might be someone willing to pay 2 to one odds on that while another is 3 to 1. Maybe betfair sets the rate? This number has to change over time though, can purchasers of a contract sell that contract later on if the odds or payout changes dramatically? It would also be interesting to see where the “knee” is in those bets. For example winning by at least 7 or at least 8 points in American football should have about the same odds due to the point scheme that has a touchdown plus the extra point at 7 points. Course you could also try and go for two so maybe there is a price difference. Anyway it would be interesting to examine.
      - traceroute66 4y ago
        > Betfair ... They would probably allow it I'm not a lawyer, but out of curiosity I did a quick search through their T&Cs. It seems to be a bit of a grey area. Section 3 ("APIs") sort of allows it in a half-assed wording kind of way: - *"Other than your permitted use of Betfair's endorsed API service (referred to above), the use of programmes or software designed to automatically place bets within certain parameters (i.e., "robot" players) is not permitted on any Games"* Section 18 ("Bots") certainly seems to allow it: - *"18.10 Some customers make use of programs designed to automatically place bets within certain parameters set by them (e.g., to back or lay at a certain price) ("bots"). These bots may be active in any or all Markets at any time and you should not assume that you can place bets on quiet Markets that will not be automatically matched simply because the Market otherwise appears quiet. Additionally, bot users should be aware that bots might be prone to exploitation by other customers. Users of these programs do so entirely at their own risk."* Meanwhile, section 12 ("suspicious betting") seems to be very much against the idea: - 12.1 For the purpose of this clause 12, "suspicious betting" refers to where we have reasonable grounds to believe that a Bet or a number of Bet have been placed in suspicious circumstances. Suspicious betting shall include, but not be limited to: - 12.1.4 where we have reasonable grounds to suspect that a Bet or a string of connected Bets were placed robotically, by automated means, or otherwise than through the Account holder placing each Bet manually via their Account; - 12.1.5 where we reasonably believe that you have used unfair external factors or influences connected with the event(s) the subject of any Bet(s); - 12.2 If we discover or have reason to believe that you have participated in any of the activities described in clause 12.1 (which, as stated in clause 11.2, constitute "Prohibited Activities"), we shall have the rights set out in clause 13. "Rights as set out in clause 13" being "Suspension or Termination of Your Account by Us". Clear as mud, really.
bumby 4y ago
It’s worth noting this article doesn’t predict outcomes, but player roles. It’s not “Team A will win” but “Player B will spike”. And even then, the prediction is only a couple seconds before the event (so you can’t, say, feed it an initial condition and make a bet that a player will get at least X spikes by game’s end). Is there a betting pool for player roles, particularly in a fast paced game like volleyball?

rybosome 4y ago

I was wondering about that as well. Somebody is going to make a killing before they close the loophole, a modern day casino heist.

NavinF 4y ago
The abstract talks about predicting 48 frames ahead. Is realtime sports betting even a thing? And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough to enter/exit say a $10,000 position that quickly?
- csa 4y ago
  > Is realtime sports betting even a thing? Yes. It’s a growth area in sports betting. > And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough to enter/exit say a $10,000 position that quickly? In some sports, sure. Probably not in volleyball. The threat in the field is that some people have a slightly faster access to info than others (3-5 secs for live versus broadcast, iirc). If the result of an algo can push a betting line (e.g., predicting a tying point in a volleyball match), then automated bet placement software/script can make a prediction and get a bet in before the action is seen by bettors who are watching on broadcast. Even without prediction software, this is a very real problem with real time sports betting right now. It seems like functional prediction software can make this knowledge gap larger.
- traceroute66 4y ago
  > Is realtime sports betting even a thing? And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough I think the question you really need to be asking is .... Is there a house that will let me do this ? The house tends not to like consistent winners.
  - evandijk70 4y ago
    Betfair works like a market - you are not betting against the house, but rather against other bettors. Betfair takes a commission from each matched bet. They would probably allow it - More matched bets means more profit for them.
    - cwilkes 4y ago
      That’s interesting. Do they publish the history of what it costs to place a bet? There’s quite a few variables that go into the pricing: how much you think a team will win by and the payout if you win the bet. So there can be multiple tracks for “I think my team will win by 7 points” and there might be someone willing to pay 2 to one odds on that while another is 3 to 1. Maybe betfair sets the rate? This number has to change over time though, can purchasers of a contract sell that contract later on if the odds or payout changes dramatically? It would also be interesting to see where the “knee” is in those bets. For example winning by at least 7 or at least 8 points in American football should have about the same odds due to the point scheme that has a touchdown plus the extra point at 7 points. Course you could also try and go for two so maybe there is a price difference. Anyway it would be interesting to examine.
    - traceroute66 4y ago
      > Betfair ... They would probably allow it I'm not a lawyer, but out of curiosity I did a quick search through their T&Cs. It seems to be a bit of a grey area. Section 3 ("APIs") sort of allows it in a half-assed wording kind of way: - *"Other than your permitted use of Betfair's endorsed API service (referred to above), the use of programmes or software designed to automatically place bets within certain parameters (i.e., "robot" players) is not permitted on any Games"* Section 18 ("Bots") certainly seems to allow it: - *"18.10 Some customers make use of programs designed to automatically place bets within certain parameters set by them (e.g., to back or lay at a certain price) ("bots"). These bots may be active in any or all Markets at any time and you should not assume that you can place bets on quiet Markets that will not be automatically matched simply because the Market otherwise appears quiet. Additionally, bot users should be aware that bots might be prone to exploitation by other customers. Users of these programs do so entirely at their own risk."* Meanwhile, section 12 ("suspicious betting") seems to be very much against the idea: - 12.1 For the purpose of this clause 12, "suspicious betting" refers to where we have reasonable grounds to believe that a Bet or a number of Bet have been placed in suspicious circumstances. Suspicious betting shall include, but not be limited to: - 12.1.4 where we have reasonable grounds to suspect that a Bet or a string of connected Bets were placed robotically, by automated means, or otherwise than through the Account holder placing each Bet manually via their Account; - 12.1.5 where we reasonably believe that you have used unfair external factors or influences connected with the event(s) the subject of any Bet(s); - 12.2 If we discover or have reason to believe that you have participated in any of the activities described in clause 12.1 (which, as stated in clause 11.2, constitute "Prohibited Activities"), we shall have the rights set out in clause 13. "Rights as set out in clause 13" being "Suspension or Termination of Your Account by Us". Clear as mud, really.

bumby 4y ago

It’s worth noting this article doesn’t predict outcomes, but player roles. It’s not “Team A will win” but “Player B will spike”. And even then, the prediction is only a couple seconds before the event (so you can’t, say, feed it an initial condition and make a bet that a player will get at least X spikes by game’s end). Is there a betting pool for player roles, particularly in a fast paced game like volleyball?