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A single criminologist whose work has mostly focused on his own cities crime is now being used to establish that "criminologists disagree." You would have a gre

A single criminologist whose work has mostly focused on his own cities crime is now being used to establish that "criminologists disagree." You would have a great career in TV journalism! You're taking a data source that is already known and acknowledged to be flawed by the publisher, cherrypicking years that seem significant to you, and using it to draw conclusions about trends across the country when the data set itself acknowledges that individual cities and even blocks within those cities skews data all the time. Again, it's lazy data analysis.

throwaway894345 4y ago
I'm not sure what you're talking about, Rosenfeld is far from the only researcher observing this phenomenon. Here's Vox on Travis Campbell's research: > Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests. Source: https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crime-ferguson-effects-murder https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim... Here's Harvard's Roland Fryer and Tanaya Devi > We estimate that these [police shooting protests] caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these [police shooting protests] increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%. Source: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w273... Note that these are both nationwide studies. I'm not sure what you mean by "cherrypicking years that seem significant to me", but yeah, looking at policing and crime before and after BLM protests seems pretty germane to understanding the effect those protests have on policing and crime. > you're taking a data source that is already known and acknowledged to be flawed by the publisher I think it's more likely that crime researchers better understand the limits of crime data sources than you do, and they probably aren't as lazy as you propose. But by all means, publish your rebuttal (and please link it here so I can read it)! > You would have a great career in TV journalism! Tragically, I have a face for radio. :/

throwaway894345 4y ago

I'm not sure what you're talking about, Rosenfeld is far from the only researcher observing this phenomenon. Here's Vox on Travis Campbell's research: > Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests. Source: https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crime-ferguson-effects-murder https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim... Here's Harvard's Roland Fryer and Tanaya Devi > We estimate that these [police shooting protests] caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these [police shooting protests] increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%. Source: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w273... Note that these are both nationwide studies. I'm not sure what you mean by "cherrypicking years that seem significant to me", but yeah, looking at policing and crime before and after BLM protests seems pretty germane to understanding the effect those protests have on policing and crime. > you're taking a data source that is already known and acknowledged to be flawed by the publisher I think it's more likely that crime researchers better understand the limits of crime data sources than you do, and they probably aren't as lazy as you propose. But by all means, publish your rebuttal (and please link it here so I can read it)! > You would have a great career in TV journalism! Tragically, I have a face for radio. :/