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Probability exist as a concept in our heads just like god and math does. Probability can be used to say something about closed systems like a game of poker usi

Probability exist as a concept in our heads just like god and math does. Probability can be used to say something about closed systems like a game of poker using a deck of cards. If 4 aces have been used I know that there will be no more aces dealt. I can explain why there won't be another ace. And even if magically there was one, we can explain that someone cheated or an extra card was accidentally in the deck. If 3 aces have been dealt and there are 10 cards left there is statistically a 10% chance of me getting an ace, however I have no way of knowing. The card has already been dealt and I will either get it or I wont. If I play 10 games will I be getting it 1 time? if I play 100 will i be getting i 10 times? I have no way of knowing. Now if I learn how to read you and know that you blink more often if you get an ace then I have found an explanation for why I might fold. Not based on statistics but because I can read you. I might still be wrong but I have an explanatory model not based on statistics to play against you, one which I might have to adjust if it turned out to be wrong (ex. you know I know so you change behavior) but at least it's providing me with something more tangible (you give clues I might be able to learn how to interpret) With the probability it's purely based on blind belief, not substantiated by reality. Now a deck of card is isolated and not really consequential to society. But now apply this to open systems economics, weather, climate, elections etc. and you will start to see the problems with assuming there is casual connection when you end up turning that into policy.

kgwgk 4y ago
Probability exists as a concept in our heads just like god, math, frequencies, cosmological models and quantum field theory. I can accept that. What I don't quite understand is how restricted your concept of "physics" is. Can physics explain that if you put together a glass of hot water and a glass of cold ethanol you end up with a warm mixture of water and ethanol? If the answer is "no" that's fine! Maybe physics cannot explain much for you. If the answer is "yes", I wonder how can you do statistical mechanics without dealing with probabilistic concepts.
- ThomPete 4y ago
  Any theory that is explainable and hard to vary does not need probability. Can you explain how probability is used in statistical mechanics in a way to contradict what I am saying? P.S. Thanks for being a sport and talk about this in a truly respectful way. If you want to understand where I am coming from, I can really recommend David Deutsch talk about probability here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzSE4Hoxbc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzSE4Hoxbc It was a big awakening for me once I realized not only where probability theory came from (not physics) and how engrained it is in our thinking.
  - kgwgk 4y ago
    The thing is that I'm not sure of what you are saying. Can physics explain that if you put together a glass of water and a glass of ethanol you end up with a mixture of water and ethanol? Do you agree that it's possible - but unlikely - that they don't mix? For other comments of yours it seems that your conclusion would be "I have no way of knowing. It depends on the positions and velocities of each of the molecules and they will either mix or they won't." I really would appreciate having a clear answer to the question "Can physics explain that if you put together a glass of water and a glass of ethanol you end up with a mixture of water and ethanol?". Don't be shy to answer "no" if that's your idea of physics!
    - ThomPete 4y ago
      I am not sure I understand the question. "Can physics explain that if you put together a glass of water and a glass of ethanol you end up with a mixture of water and ethanol?" Wouldn't that be chemistry (an emergent property of physics)? But yes we can explain if it happens and how it happens, if we have a theory for it that have been tested. If not we will do trial an error/experiments and see what happens.
      - kgwgk 4y ago
        I don't understand the answer. (Assuming it's "yes".) What is the explanation of why they will mix? Does it involve probabilities? Why didn't you say "I have no way of knowing. It depends on the positions and velocities of each of the molecules and they will either mix or they won't." (By the way, if I had asked about a container of neon and a container of helium would you have also claimed that asking whether they will mix is a chemistry question?)

kgwgk 4y ago

Probability exists as a concept in our heads just like god, math, frequencies, cosmological models and quantum field theory. I can accept that. What I don't quite understand is how restricted your concept of "physics" is. Can physics explain that if you put together a glass of hot water and a glass of cold ethanol you end up with a warm mixture of water and ethanol? If the answer is "no" that's fine! Maybe physics cannot explain much for you. If the answer is "yes", I wonder how can you do statistical mechanics without dealing with probabilistic concepts.

ThomPete 4y ago
Any theory that is explainable and hard to vary does not need probability. Can you explain how probability is used in statistical mechanics in a way to contradict what I am saying? P.S. Thanks for being a sport and talk about this in a truly respectful way. If you want to understand where I am coming from, I can really recommend David Deutsch talk about probability here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzSE4Hoxbc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzSE4Hoxbc It was a big awakening for me once I realized not only where probability theory came from (not physics) and how engrained it is in our thinking.
- kgwgk 4y ago
  The thing is that I'm not sure of what you are saying. Can physics explain that if you put together a glass of water and a glass of ethanol you end up with a mixture of water and ethanol? Do you agree that it's possible - but unlikely - that they don't mix? For other comments of yours it seems that your conclusion would be "I have no way of knowing. It depends on the positions and velocities of each of the molecules and they will either mix or they won't." I really would appreciate having a clear answer to the question "Can physics explain that if you put together a glass of water and a glass of ethanol you end up with a mixture of water and ethanol?". Don't be shy to answer "no" if that's your idea of physics!
  - ThomPete 4y ago
    I am not sure I understand the question. "Can physics explain that if you put together a glass of water and a glass of ethanol you end up with a mixture of water and ethanol?" Wouldn't that be chemistry (an emergent property of physics)? But yes we can explain if it happens and how it happens, if we have a theory for it that have been tested. If not we will do trial an error/experiments and see what happens.
    - kgwgk 4y ago
      I don't understand the answer. (Assuming it's "yes".) What is the explanation of why they will mix? Does it involve probabilities? Why didn't you say "I have no way of knowing. It depends on the positions and velocities of each of the molecules and they will either mix or they won't." (By the way, if I had asked about a container of neon and a container of helium would you have also claimed that asking whether they will mix is a chemistry question?)