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Can you name the cities that actually defunded the police? Blaming post-COVID crime trends on BLM is just lazy interpretation of data. Most of what you’re sayin

Can you name the cities that actually defunded the police? Blaming post-COVID crime trends on BLM is just lazy interpretation of data. Most of what you’re saying here is blatantly wrong, there is no post-2014 crime surge, in fact crime was much worse in the decade before and has been oscillating around a mean since: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/crime-trends-1990-2016 https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/crim.... Why lie when the data is public? EDIT: even more, unfiltered data directly from the FBI crime DB: https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/cri... It is impossible to see 2014 as anything but a deviation from the mean rather than some bizarre starting point for BLM ruining the country when you look at the data for more than 5 minutes. As for your proposed solutions, every single drop of funding sent to police departments goes towards their further militarization. There are many small rural towns with tanks now. Anti poverty programs have never been popular in the U.S. No neighborhood wants to host the abuse prevention or mental health centers. So where do we go?

throwaway894345 4y ago
Criminologists disagree with you. Not only did homicides increase following 2014, criminologists believe it is caused by BLM protests. > For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. Now, the St Louis criminologist says, a deeper analysis of the increase in homicides in 2015 has convinced him that “some version” of the Ferguson effect may be real. > “These aren’t flukes or blips, this is a real increase,” he said. “It was worrisome. We need to figure out why it happened.” > All 10 cities that saw sudden increases in homicide had large African American populations, he said. While it’s not clear what drove the increases, he said, he believes there is some connection between high-profile protests over police killings of unarmed black men, a further breakdown in black citizens’ trust of the police, and an increase in community violence. > “The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his “leading hypothesis”. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-effect-real-researcher-richard-rosenfield-second-thoughts https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-eff... I have more links, but I don't have time at the moment to dig them up.
- femiagbabiaka 4y ago
  A single criminologist whose work has mostly focused on his own cities crime is now being used to establish that "criminologists disagree." You would have a great career in TV journalism! You're taking a data source that is already known and acknowledged to be flawed by the publisher, cherrypicking years that seem significant to you, and using it to draw conclusions about trends across the country when the data set itself acknowledges that individual cities and even blocks within those cities skews data all the time. Again, it's lazy data analysis.
  - throwaway894345 4y ago
    I'm not sure what you're talking about, Rosenfeld is far from the only researcher observing this phenomenon. Here's Vox on Travis Campbell's research: > Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests. Source: https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crime-ferguson-effects-murder https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim... Here's Harvard's Roland Fryer and Tanaya Devi > We estimate that these [police shooting protests] caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these [police shooting protests] increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%. Source: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w273... Note that these are both nationwide studies. I'm not sure what you mean by "cherrypicking years that seem significant to me", but yeah, looking at policing and crime before and after BLM protests seems pretty germane to understanding the effect those protests have on policing and crime. > you're taking a data source that is already known and acknowledged to be flawed by the publisher I think it's more likely that crime researchers better understand the limits of crime data sources than you do, and they probably aren't as lazy as you propose. But by all means, publish your rebuttal (and please link it here so I can read it)! > You would have a great career in TV journalism! Tragically, I have a face for radio. :/

throwaway894345 4y ago

Criminologists disagree with you. Not only did homicides increase following 2014, criminologists believe it is caused by BLM protests. > For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. Now, the St Louis criminologist says, a deeper analysis of the increase in homicides in 2015 has convinced him that “some version” of the Ferguson effect may be real. > “These aren’t flukes or blips, this is a real increase,” he said. “It was worrisome. We need to figure out why it happened.” > All 10 cities that saw sudden increases in homicide had large African American populations, he said. While it’s not clear what drove the increases, he said, he believes there is some connection between high-profile protests over police killings of unarmed black men, a further breakdown in black citizens’ trust of the police, and an increase in community violence. > “The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his “leading hypothesis”. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-effect-real-researcher-richard-rosenfield-second-thoughts https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-eff... I have more links, but I don't have time at the moment to dig them up.

femiagbabiaka 4y ago
A single criminologist whose work has mostly focused on his own cities crime is now being used to establish that "criminologists disagree." You would have a great career in TV journalism! You're taking a data source that is already known and acknowledged to be flawed by the publisher, cherrypicking years that seem significant to you, and using it to draw conclusions about trends across the country when the data set itself acknowledges that individual cities and even blocks within those cities skews data all the time. Again, it's lazy data analysis.
- throwaway894345 4y ago
  I'm not sure what you're talking about, Rosenfeld is far from the only researcher observing this phenomenon. Here's Vox on Travis Campbell's research: > Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests. Source: https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crime-ferguson-effects-murder https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim... Here's Harvard's Roland Fryer and Tanaya Devi > We estimate that these [police shooting protests] caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these [police shooting protests] increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%. Source: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w273... Note that these are both nationwide studies. I'm not sure what you mean by "cherrypicking years that seem significant to me", but yeah, looking at policing and crime before and after BLM protests seems pretty germane to understanding the effect those protests have on policing and crime. > you're taking a data source that is already known and acknowledged to be flawed by the publisher I think it's more likely that crime researchers better understand the limits of crime data sources than you do, and they probably aren't as lazy as you propose. But by all means, publish your rebuttal (and please link it here so I can read it)! > You would have a great career in TV journalism! Tragically, I have a face for radio. :/