3 ms·

> (homicides are up like 60% compared to the pre-BLM days). Where are you getting this statistic? A quick google search doesn’t show any such surge in the murd

> (homicides are up like 60% compared to the pre-BLM days). Where are you getting this statistic? A quick google search doesn’t show any such surge in the murder rate in the United States. 60% is a very large increase. I would expect this stat to have huge ripple effects if it were true.

femiagbabiaka 4y ago
It’s a complete fabrication of course.
- junon 4y ago
  Two mis-informations don't make a truth.
- throwaway894345 4y ago
  According to the FBI, there were 22,900 homicides in 2021 and 14,249 in 2014. If a ~60% increase isn't the right figure, what do you think it is, and how did you arrive at your conclusion?
scifibestfi 4y ago
In some US cities there was a spike, which is probably what they are loosely referring to. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-h...
cjsplat 4y ago
The FBI has a nice analysis front end at https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/home https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/home Here is the murder rate graph - note that the most recent year is flagged as not fully reported yet. https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/shr https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crim... Up 60% isn't far off, depending on when "pre-BLM days" starts, but it takes a big leap to connect it to BLM. Also, if you look at the rate since the early 90's we are doing quite a bit better, so you get to pick your favorite trend line.
throwaway894345 4y ago
The stat has had huge ripple effects, especially in poorer urban communities. Checking the homicide rates on the FBI data explorer shows an increase of 50% which gels with my 60% ballpark figure (rates accounts for population increases in a way my homicide increases figure doesn't). My 60% figure was grabbing the homicide count in 2014 from the FBI UCR (14,249 per https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/murder#:~:text=In%202014%2C%20the%20estimated%20number,from%20the%20number%20in%202005 https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-....) and comparing it with the stats from 2021 (22,900).

femiagbabiaka 4y ago

It’s a complete fabrication of course.

junon 4y ago
Two mis-informations don't make a truth.
throwaway894345 4y ago
According to the FBI, there were 22,900 homicides in 2021 and 14,249 in 2014. If a ~60% increase isn't the right figure, what do you think it is, and how did you arrive at your conclusion?

scifibestfi 4y ago

In some US cities there was a spike, which is probably what they are loosely referring to. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-h...

cjsplat 4y ago

The FBI has a nice analysis front end at https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/home https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/home Here is the murder rate graph - note that the most recent year is flagged as not fully reported yet. https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/shr https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crim... Up 60% isn't far off, depending on when "pre-BLM days" starts, but it takes a big leap to connect it to BLM. Also, if you look at the rate since the early 90's we are doing quite a bit better, so you get to pick your favorite trend line.

throwaway894345 4y ago

The stat has had huge ripple effects, especially in poorer urban communities. Checking the homicide rates on the FBI data explorer shows an increase of 50% which gels with my 60% ballpark figure (rates accounts for population increases in a way my homicide increases figure doesn't). My 60% figure was grabbing the homicide count in 2014 from the FBI UCR (14,249 per https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/murder#:~:text=In%202014%2C%20the%20estimated%20number,from%20the%20number%20in%202005 https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-....) and comparing it with the stats from 2021 (22,900).