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Yes and often I don't end up using it. It will either rain where I am or it wont. I might as well believe in Thor the Thunder God as a theory for why I will bri

Yes and often I don't end up using it. It will either rain where I am or it wont. I might as well believe in Thor the Thunder God as a theory for why I will bring an umbrella.

kgwgk 4y ago
Every single day it will either rain or it won't. Sometimes you will take an umbrella. Based on what you consider the X of rain. That action of yours will be - you hope - non-causally correlated with reality in the sense that if you take the umbrella very many times, you would end up using it often enough to make it worth it. X is what people call 'probability'. How do you call it? [Thor's will?] Have you noticed any correlation between you taking the umbrella and rain later in the day?
- ThomPete 4y ago
  None of that require probability. Ignorance is still ignorance even if you dress it up to sound scientific. You are just guessing.
  - kgwgk 4y ago
    I don't know what does it mean to "require probability". I'd say that it "is probability". The concept that is in our heads, mind you. When you are guessing between the exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes A, B and C in such a way that guess(A)>0, guess(B)>0, guess(C)>0 and guess(A or B or C) = guess(A) + guess(B) + guess(C) = 1 and guess(A or B) = guess(A) + guess(B), guess(A or C) = guess(A) + guess(C), guess(B or C) = guess(B) + guess(C) then guess is a probability measure as defined by Kolmogorov, for example. That's why most people don't see any problem in calling that "probability". You may like the name of "guessing" better but insisting in that it should not be referred to as probability and it doesn't require probability seems an uphill battle.
    - ThomPete 4y ago
      Fighting for better modes of explanation is always an uphill battle. The point is that there is no difference between saying. It either happens or it don't. And then There is a 40% chance is happens. The 40% is not based on anything of consequence to the discussion at hand. Why use something that is completely separated from what it purports to make claims about? This is not just unscientific it's an anti-scientific approach.
      - kgwgk 4y ago
        If you see no difference between saying "it either rains or it doesn't" and saying that some days it's more likely to rain than other days I wonder why would you ever decide take an umbrella with you in case it rains later. But that's fine! This line of discussion seems exhausted.
        ThomPete 4y ago
        You are missing the point completely. You don't make a probabilistic calculation based on some formula to figure out whether you bring your umbrella with you or not. You just guess, sometime based on past experience. Sometime you are right, sometimes you are wrong. But you are always just guessing and no formula will allow you to end up with whatever probability you calculate.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        Please correct me if I'm wrong. I may have misunderstood you. You say that: A) there is no difference between saying "It either happens or it doesn't" and "There is a 40% chance it happens" and, I assume, you also say that: B) there is no difference between saying "It either happens or it doesn't" and "There is a 60% chance it happens" So - unless you also have your own ideas of how logic works - you will also say that: C) there is no difference between saying "There is a 40% chance it happens" and "There is a 60% chance it happens" If there is no difference how could it be based on past experience or whatever? --- But maybe you didn't mean that and you recognize that saying that the probability is 60% means saying that it's more probable than when it's said that the probability is 40%. It's clear that you don't like people using the word probability. However, the fact is that this use is completely in line with the mathematical definition of probability and with the meaning and etymology of "probable" (likely, reasonable, plausible, having more evidence for than against).

Yes and often I don't end up using it. It will either rain where I am or it wont. I might as well believe in Thor the Thunder God as a theory for why I will bring an umbrella.

kgwgk 4y ago

Every single day it will either rain or it won't. Sometimes you will take an umbrella. Based on what you consider the X of rain. That action of yours will be - you hope - non-causally correlated with reality in the sense that if you take the umbrella very many times, you would end up using it often enough to make it worth it. X is what people call 'probability'. How do you call it? [Thor's will?] Have you noticed any correlation between you taking the umbrella and rain later in the day?

ThomPete 4y ago
None of that require probability. Ignorance is still ignorance even if you dress it up to sound scientific. You are just guessing.
- kgwgk 4y ago
  I don't know what does it mean to "require probability". I'd say that it "is probability". The concept that is in our heads, mind you. When you are guessing between the exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes A, B and C in such a way that guess(A)>0, guess(B)>0, guess(C)>0 and guess(A or B or C) = guess(A) + guess(B) + guess(C) = 1 and guess(A or B) = guess(A) + guess(B), guess(A or C) = guess(A) + guess(C), guess(B or C) = guess(B) + guess(C) then guess is a probability measure as defined by Kolmogorov, for example. That's why most people don't see any problem in calling that "probability". You may like the name of "guessing" better but insisting in that it should not be referred to as probability and it doesn't require probability seems an uphill battle.
  - ThomPete 4y ago
    Fighting for better modes of explanation is always an uphill battle. The point is that there is no difference between saying. It either happens or it don't. And then There is a 40% chance is happens. The 40% is not based on anything of consequence to the discussion at hand. Why use something that is completely separated from what it purports to make claims about? This is not just unscientific it's an anti-scientific approach.
    - kgwgk 4y ago
      If you see no difference between saying "it either rains or it doesn't" and saying that some days it's more likely to rain than other days I wonder why would you ever decide take an umbrella with you in case it rains later. But that's fine! This line of discussion seems exhausted.
      - ThomPete 4y ago
        You are missing the point completely. You don't make a probabilistic calculation based on some formula to figure out whether you bring your umbrella with you or not. You just guess, sometime based on past experience. Sometime you are right, sometimes you are wrong. But you are always just guessing and no formula will allow you to end up with whatever probability you calculate.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        Please correct me if I'm wrong. I may have misunderstood you. You say that: A) there is no difference between saying "It either happens or it doesn't" and "There is a 40% chance it happens" and, I assume, you also say that: B) there is no difference between saying "It either happens or it doesn't" and "There is a 60% chance it happens" So - unless you also have your own ideas of how logic works - you will also say that: C) there is no difference between saying "There is a 40% chance it happens" and "There is a 60% chance it happens" If there is no difference how could it be based on past experience or whatever? --- But maybe you didn't mean that and you recognize that saying that the probability is 60% means saying that it's more probable than when it's said that the probability is 40%. It's clear that you don't like people using the word probability. However, the fact is that this use is completely in line with the mathematical definition of probability and with the meaning and etymology of "probable" (likely, reasonable, plausible, having more evidence for than against).