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Trying to understand in my head * Is Tesla so far ahead of competition that they are all trying to copy their playbook a decade after? * In a supply constrain

Trying to understand in my head * Is Tesla so far ahead of competition that they are all trying to copy their playbook a decade after? * In a supply constrained environment, can GM pull this off being a late mover? * GM may have current administration advantage for at least 2 more years over Tesla & foreign companies. * Are there any late mover advantages GM has here? * GM is without question a much cheaper investment than TSLA when looking at P/E ratio.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
I think the key argument, which is not acknowledged in the article, is that the recent Inflation Reduction Act has quite dramatically improved the unit economics of producing solar panels and batteries to the point of it literally being more economical to manufacture things in the US. It would be a sensible area to invest in regardless of Tesla if you think you have the capability to play in that space.
- nebula8804 4y ago
  Any risk of WTO lawsuits? I know the Korean and Japanese auto companies are considering suing due to some advantages that the incumbent auto manufacturers have in the bill. I suspect there will be carve outs for every foreign company that complains.
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    No idea, but interesting question. I would guess not on the issue of solar panels as that's too distant. Maybe an argument could be made for the batteries? I don't know the bill in sufficient detail.
maxsilver 4y ago
> Is Tesla so far ahead of competition that they are all trying to copy their playbook a decade after? I'm not sure Tesla is "far ahead" of the competition, so much as they announce stuff earlier and attract more hype and fanfare. (Compare Cybertruck to the Silverado EV, for example -- Tesla was years earlier in announcement and parties, but only a few months off from each other in likely actual ship date. Similarly, Tesla has been announcing/mentioning the 'Model 3' as their 'affordable family car' as far back as like 2008, but the Bolt EV actually shipped in late 2016, and the comparable Tesla Model 3 didn't ship until mid 2017). In terms of "why enter the energy business", it's an easy "nearly freebie" line of business if your building EV's already. (Like how Starbucks slowly added food to their menu, as McDonalds slowly added fancy coffees). Nissan, for example, launched the Leaf EV in 2010, and has been dabbling in home energy since at least 2015 or so. > Are there any late mover advantages GM has here? GM has a fleet of support infrastructure in place, as well as trustworthy guarantees on replacement parts and service. Tesla historically has done the opposite, preferring a more Apple-like proprietary parts and vertically-integrated labour network. That difference may not matter much on consumer electronics, but when your buying 10+yr long vehicles or bolting things to your house with 20+ yr lifespan expectations, it may factor in a lot more.
hnburnsy 4y ago
yeah, GM is currently knocking it out of the park with its BEVs... "Sales data indicates that GM is nowhere near its ambitious production goal of making tens of thousands of Hummer EVs. The company sold 371 units of the Hummer EV Pickup in the U.S. in the first half of 2022. On June 30, 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported that GM was making just about 12 units a day. A GM spokesman said that the deliveries could grow to thousands later in 2022." And how about that Bolt recall which cost GM an estimated $1 B.
- hnburnsy 4y ago
  More color... BEVs sold by GM through 2022 Q3... 36 Lyriqs 782 Hummers 22,012 Bolts For comparison Tesla sold around 32,000 Model S in 2014.

spywaregorilla 4y ago

I think the key argument, which is not acknowledged in the article, is that the recent Inflation Reduction Act has quite dramatically improved the unit economics of producing solar panels and batteries to the point of it literally being more economical to manufacture things in the US. It would be a sensible area to invest in regardless of Tesla if you think you have the capability to play in that space.

nebula8804 4y ago
Any risk of WTO lawsuits? I know the Korean and Japanese auto companies are considering suing due to some advantages that the incumbent auto manufacturers have in the bill. I suspect there will be carve outs for every foreign company that complains.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  No idea, but interesting question. I would guess not on the issue of solar panels as that's too distant. Maybe an argument could be made for the batteries? I don't know the bill in sufficient detail.

maxsilver 4y ago

> Is Tesla so far ahead of competition that they are all trying to copy their playbook a decade after? I'm not sure Tesla is "far ahead" of the competition, so much as they announce stuff earlier and attract more hype and fanfare. (Compare Cybertruck to the Silverado EV, for example -- Tesla was years earlier in announcement and parties, but only a few months off from each other in likely actual ship date. Similarly, Tesla has been announcing/mentioning the 'Model 3' as their 'affordable family car' as far back as like 2008, but the Bolt EV actually shipped in late 2016, and the comparable Tesla Model 3 didn't ship until mid 2017). In terms of "why enter the energy business", it's an easy "nearly freebie" line of business if your building EV's already. (Like how Starbucks slowly added food to their menu, as McDonalds slowly added fancy coffees). Nissan, for example, launched the Leaf EV in 2010, and has been dabbling in home energy since at least 2015 or so. > Are there any late mover advantages GM has here? GM has a fleet of support infrastructure in place, as well as trustworthy guarantees on replacement parts and service. Tesla historically has done the opposite, preferring a more Apple-like proprietary parts and vertically-integrated labour network. That difference may not matter much on consumer electronics, but when your buying 10+yr long vehicles or bolting things to your house with 20+ yr lifespan expectations, it may factor in a lot more.

hnburnsy 4y ago

yeah, GM is currently knocking it out of the park with its BEVs... "Sales data indicates that GM is nowhere near its ambitious production goal of making tens of thousands of Hummer EVs. The company sold 371 units of the Hummer EV Pickup in the U.S. in the first half of 2022. On June 30, 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported that GM was making just about 12 units a day. A GM spokesman said that the deliveries could grow to thousands later in 2022." And how about that Bolt recall which cost GM an estimated $1 B.

hnburnsy 4y ago
More color... BEVs sold by GM through 2022 Q3... 36 Lyriqs 782 Hummers 22,012 Bolts For comparison Tesla sold around 32,000 Model S in 2014.