The wildcard in all this is that per transistor prices haven't been dropping each node since 20nm. They eventually go down as yields improve but we don't get th

The wildcard in all this is that per transistor prices haven't been dropping each node since 20nm. They eventually go down as yields improve but we don't get that instant "way more transistors for a small increase in wafer price" like we did before 20nm. Meanwhile Nvidia is soaking none of this in their margins since they don't have to. I think AMD is going to somewhat come to the rescue because chiplets are going to get way more out of each wafer compared to the absolute massive dies that Nvidia fabs but we're not returning to $800 cards in the penultimate slot like before. A lot of people are probably about to get disappointed.