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NATO and the US will likely not respond if Putin uses a small nuke in Ukraine. There’s too much to lose. They’ll just let it happen, as they should. Which is ob

NATO and the US will likely not respond if Putin uses a small nuke in Ukraine. There’s too much to lose. They’ll just let it happen, as they should. Which is obviously terrible and devastating for Ukrainians, but probably best for the rest of the world. Hopefully other Russian leaders are aware of the risk though, and would actively disobey Putin if he gave the call to use nukes

_kbh_ 4y ago
> NATO and the US will likely not respond if Putin uses a small nuke in Ukraine. There’s too much to lose. They’ll just let it happen, as they should. Which is obviously terrible and devastating for Ukrainians, but probably best for the rest of the world. It's actually the opposite, everyone should be hoping that someone delivers a devastating strike against the Russians for using any size of nuke in Ukraine. Unless you want to live in a world where every country is actively trying to get nuclear weapons you should as well. Any lacklustre response to a use of a nuke will lead to nuclear proliferation going wild as every country in the world looks to actively acquire nuclear weapons for defence.
- gpderetta 4y ago
  I think that the nuclear proliferation cat is out of the box. I wouldn't be surprised if even European countries are already looking to acquire nuclear capabilities.
  - inawarminister 4y ago
    Yeah, North Korea survived with their nukes, Libya failed after Gaddafi gave up theirs. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-gaddafi-had-the-bomb_b_846820 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-gaddafi-had-the-bomb_b_846... A very good article.
cm2187 4y ago
My bet is no direct military intervention but a dramatic ramp up in weapon supply to Ukraine, including long range weapons. The other thing that will likely happen is the loss of support from India and China, which are already a lukewarm support. Another consequence I think will be the end of non proliferation. Everyone will want to have nukes if it is now used as an offensive weapon against non nuclear countries. That includes Taiwan. Which is why I think it is incredibly unlikely. Lots of threats, but they won't do it. Even chemical weapons would be a stretch.
boring_twenties 4y ago
I doubt they would let it happen as it's the worst of all options -- it guarantees more and more nuclear blackmail in the immediate future, not least from Putin himself.
gilbetron 4y ago
If setting off a nuke goes unanswered, Putin will not stop at one. Europe knows that, China knows that, the US knows that, the whole world knows that.

_kbh_ 4y ago

> NATO and the US will likely not respond if Putin uses a small nuke in Ukraine. There’s too much to lose. They’ll just let it happen, as they should. Which is obviously terrible and devastating for Ukrainians, but probably best for the rest of the world. It's actually the opposite, everyone should be hoping that someone delivers a devastating strike against the Russians for using any size of nuke in Ukraine. Unless you want to live in a world where every country is actively trying to get nuclear weapons you should as well. Any lacklustre response to a use of a nuke will lead to nuclear proliferation going wild as every country in the world looks to actively acquire nuclear weapons for defence.

gpderetta 4y ago
I think that the nuclear proliferation cat is out of the box. I wouldn't be surprised if even European countries are already looking to acquire nuclear capabilities.
- inawarminister 4y ago
  Yeah, North Korea survived with their nukes, Libya failed after Gaddafi gave up theirs. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-gaddafi-had-the-bomb_b_846820 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-gaddafi-had-the-bomb_b_846... A very good article.

cm2187 4y ago

My bet is no direct military intervention but a dramatic ramp up in weapon supply to Ukraine, including long range weapons. The other thing that will likely happen is the loss of support from India and China, which are already a lukewarm support. Another consequence I think will be the end of non proliferation. Everyone will want to have nukes if it is now used as an offensive weapon against non nuclear countries. That includes Taiwan. Which is why I think it is incredibly unlikely. Lots of threats, but they won't do it. Even chemical weapons would be a stretch.

boring_twenties 4y ago

I doubt they would let it happen as it's the worst of all options -- it guarantees more and more nuclear blackmail in the immediate future, not least from Putin himself.

gilbetron 4y ago

If setting off a nuke goes unanswered, Putin will not stop at one. Europe knows that, China knows that, the US knows that, the whole world knows that.