3 ms·
Probably, but predicting anything is different, and getting good at it requires a willingness to examine where you went wrong in the past, and make adjustments.
by rossdavidh 4y ago
Probably, but predicting anything is different, and getting good at it requires a willingness to examine where you went wrong in the past, and make adjustments. Like anything, it takes practice. Given that we haven't ever (yet?) had a nuclear armageddon, any estimate of how close we are to it is based on very little data and quite a lot of emotion and politics.
- dane-pgp 4y agoFor what it's worth, people have tried to use the minimal data we have to make a reasonable estimate of the probability of a nuclear war. > Keep in mind that the following are annualized probabilities. For a child born today (say 75 year life expectancy) these probabilities (.0117) suggest that the chance of a nuclear war in their lifetime is nearly 60%, (1-(1-.0117)^75). At an annualized probability of .009 which is the probability from accident analysis it’s approximately 50%. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/07/what-is-the-probability-of-a-nuclear-war.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/07/wh...