> it should be obvious to Fed board members, no? What? Take a look at the dot plots of FRB expected rate surveys and compare them to actual rates. These people

> it should be obvious to Fed board members, no? What? Take a look at the dot plots of FRB expected rate surveys and compare them to actual rates. These people have substantially less predictive capacity than a monkey throwing darts. No, it should not be "obvious" that people who are consistently wrong will miraculously start being right. They really do believe their own bullshit.