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I'm Russian living in Russia and it feels like that since 2/24. Now almost 90% are concerned about the events in the Ukraine [0]. Personally, in February I was

by gdy 4y ago

I'm Russian living in Russia and it feels like that since 2/24. Now almost 90% are concerned about the events in the Ukraine [0]. Personally, in February I was concerned about loss of lives, mostly Ukrainian, political repressions and Russian economy, today the economy looks okeyish, but with all the Western help to the Ukraine, it looks like it's only the question of time when Putin turns to tactical nukes. [0] https://www.levada.ru/2022/09/29/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-sentyabr-2022-goda/ https://www.levada.ru/2022/09/29/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-sentyab...

rnk 4y ago
If he uses a nuke, even a small tactical nuke, nato and the US will respond with overwhelming conventional forces, destroying some significant Russian military assets. The world will be on a precipice of doom. I don't see how it will stop. Russia is too weak, their only response is more nukes, and then it's over for all of us.
- revolutukr 4y ago
  [dead]
- californical 4y ago
  NATO and the US will likely not respond if Putin uses a small nuke in Ukraine. There’s too much to lose. They’ll just let it happen, as they should. Which is obviously terrible and devastating for Ukrainians, but probably best for the rest of the world. Hopefully other Russian leaders are aware of the risk though, and would actively disobey Putin if he gave the call to use nukes
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    > NATO and the US will likely not respond if Putin uses a small nuke in Ukraine. There’s too much to lose. They’ll just let it happen, as they should. Which is obviously terrible and devastating for Ukrainians, but probably best for the rest of the world. It's actually the opposite, everyone should be hoping that someone delivers a devastating strike against the Russians for using any size of nuke in Ukraine. Unless you want to live in a world where every country is actively trying to get nuclear weapons you should as well. Any lacklustre response to a use of a nuke will lead to nuclear proliferation going wild as every country in the world looks to actively acquire nuclear weapons for defence.
    - gpderetta 4y ago
      I think that the nuclear proliferation cat is out of the box. I wouldn't be surprised if even European countries are already looking to acquire nuclear capabilities.
      - inawarminister 4y ago
        Yeah, North Korea survived with their nukes, Libya failed after Gaddafi gave up theirs. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-gaddafi-had-the-bomb_b_846820 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-gaddafi-had-the-bomb_b_846... A very good article.
  - cm2187 4y ago
    My bet is no direct military intervention but a dramatic ramp up in weapon supply to Ukraine, including long range weapons. The other thing that will likely happen is the loss of support from India and China, which are already a lukewarm support. Another consequence I think will be the end of non proliferation. Everyone will want to have nukes if it is now used as an offensive weapon against non nuclear countries. That includes Taiwan. Which is why I think it is incredibly unlikely. Lots of threats, but they won't do it. Even chemical weapons would be a stretch.
  - boring_twenties 4y ago
    I doubt they would let it happen as it's the worst of all options -- it guarantees more and more nuclear blackmail in the immediate future, not least from Putin himself.
  - gilbetron 4y ago
    If setting off a nuke goes unanswered, Putin will not stop at one. Europe knows that, China knows that, the US knows that, the whole world knows that.

by gdy 4y ago

rnk 4y ago

If he uses a nuke, even a small tactical nuke, nato and the US will respond with overwhelming conventional forces, destroying some significant Russian military assets. The world will be on a precipice of doom. I don't see how it will stop. Russia is too weak, their only response is more nukes, and then it's over for all of us.

revolutukr 4y ago
[dead]
californical 4y ago
NATO and the US will likely not respond if Putin uses a small nuke in Ukraine. There’s too much to lose. They’ll just let it happen, as they should. Which is obviously terrible and devastating for Ukrainians, but probably best for the rest of the world. Hopefully other Russian leaders are aware of the risk though, and would actively disobey Putin if he gave the call to use nukes
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  > NATO and the US will likely not respond if Putin uses a small nuke in Ukraine. There’s too much to lose. They’ll just let it happen, as they should. Which is obviously terrible and devastating for Ukrainians, but probably best for the rest of the world. It's actually the opposite, everyone should be hoping that someone delivers a devastating strike against the Russians for using any size of nuke in Ukraine. Unless you want to live in a world where every country is actively trying to get nuclear weapons you should as well. Any lacklustre response to a use of a nuke will lead to nuclear proliferation going wild as every country in the world looks to actively acquire nuclear weapons for defence.
  - gpderetta 4y ago
    I think that the nuclear proliferation cat is out of the box. I wouldn't be surprised if even European countries are already looking to acquire nuclear capabilities.
    - inawarminister 4y ago
      Yeah, North Korea survived with their nukes, Libya failed after Gaddafi gave up theirs. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-gaddafi-had-the-bomb_b_846820 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/if-gaddafi-had-the-bomb_b_846... A very good article.
- cm2187 4y ago
  My bet is no direct military intervention but a dramatic ramp up in weapon supply to Ukraine, including long range weapons. The other thing that will likely happen is the loss of support from India and China, which are already a lukewarm support. Another consequence I think will be the end of non proliferation. Everyone will want to have nukes if it is now used as an offensive weapon against non nuclear countries. That includes Taiwan. Which is why I think it is incredibly unlikely. Lots of threats, but they won't do it. Even chemical weapons would be a stretch.
- boring_twenties 4y ago
  I doubt they would let it happen as it's the worst of all options -- it guarantees more and more nuclear blackmail in the immediate future, not least from Putin himself.
- gilbetron 4y ago
  If setting off a nuke goes unanswered, Putin will not stop at one. Europe knows that, China knows that, the US knows that, the whole world knows that.