4 ms·

I would say "I don't know" and I would be lying if I said anything else. I can tell you I don't have any plans of going on a helicopter ride tomorrow. I can al

I would say "I don't know" and I would be lying if I said anything else. I can tell you I don't have any plans of going on a helicopter ride tomorrow. I can also tell you that I have no idea if the next president will be democrat. What formula do you propose we use to calculate the probability?

kqr 4y ago
And if I proposed a bet where you pay me $10 now and I pay you $40 if there's a Democrat president next election, you wouldn't take the bet because "you don't know?" (This situation could be put in a less abstract way: there's a business opportunity that costs some money to realise but you only reap the benefit in the right political climate.)
- ThomPete 4y ago
  I might take the bet but I would just be guessing or I might work towards trying to find a solution to turn the guess into an explanation. At no time does probability help me with figuring out what the outcome is. I can either explain what will happen or I can't. There is no 50/50. I just don't have the correct explanation i.e. an explanation that is hard to vary.
  - kqr 4y ago
    Can I interpret your taking the bet as an admission that it's a bet that comes with a positive expectation? (In the sense that if you took similar bets very many times, you would end up with an almost sure profit.)
    - ThomPete 4y ago
      No. Just like i dont go to the casino expecting to win.
      - kgwgk 4y ago
        Do you ever take an umbrella with you expecting that it may rain later?
        ThomPete 4y ago
        Yes and often I don't end up using it. It will either rain where I am or it wont. I might as well believe in Thor the Thunder God as a theory for why I will bring an umbrella.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        Every single day it will either rain or it won't. Sometimes you will take an umbrella. Based on what you consider the X of rain. That action of yours will be - you hope - non-causally correlated with reality in the sense that if you take the umbrella very many times, you would end up using it often enough to make it worth it. X is what people call 'probability'. How do you call it? [Thor's will?] Have you noticed any correlation between you taking the umbrella and rain later in the day?
        ThomPete 4y ago
        None of that require probability. Ignorance is still ignorance even if you dress it up to sound scientific. You are just guessing.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        I don't know what does it mean to "require probability". I'd say that it "is probability". The concept that is in our heads, mind you. When you are guessing between the exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes A, B and C in such a way that guess(A)>0, guess(B)>0, guess(C)>0 and guess(A or B or C) = guess(A) + guess(B) + guess(C) = 1 and guess(A or B) = guess(A) + guess(B), guess(A or C) = guess(A) + guess(C), guess(B or C) = guess(B) + guess(C) then guess is a probability measure as defined by Kolmogorov, for example. That's why most people don't see any problem in calling that "probability". You may like the name of "guessing" better but insisting in that it should not be referred to as probability and it doesn't require probability seems an uphill battle.

kqr 4y ago

And if I proposed a bet where you pay me $10 now and I pay you $40 if there's a Democrat president next election, you wouldn't take the bet because "you don't know?" (This situation could be put in a less abstract way: there's a business opportunity that costs some money to realise but you only reap the benefit in the right political climate.)

ThomPete 4y ago
I might take the bet but I would just be guessing or I might work towards trying to find a solution to turn the guess into an explanation. At no time does probability help me with figuring out what the outcome is. I can either explain what will happen or I can't. There is no 50/50. I just don't have the correct explanation i.e. an explanation that is hard to vary.
- kqr 4y ago
  Can I interpret your taking the bet as an admission that it's a bet that comes with a positive expectation? (In the sense that if you took similar bets very many times, you would end up with an almost sure profit.)
  - ThomPete 4y ago
    No. Just like i dont go to the casino expecting to win.
    - kgwgk 4y ago
      Do you ever take an umbrella with you expecting that it may rain later?
      - ThomPete 4y ago
        Yes and often I don't end up using it. It will either rain where I am or it wont. I might as well believe in Thor the Thunder God as a theory for why I will bring an umbrella.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        Every single day it will either rain or it won't. Sometimes you will take an umbrella. Based on what you consider the X of rain. That action of yours will be - you hope - non-causally correlated with reality in the sense that if you take the umbrella very many times, you would end up using it often enough to make it worth it. X is what people call 'probability'. How do you call it? [Thor's will?] Have you noticed any correlation between you taking the umbrella and rain later in the day?
        ThomPete 4y ago
        None of that require probability. Ignorance is still ignorance even if you dress it up to sound scientific. You are just guessing.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        I don't know what does it mean to "require probability". I'd say that it "is probability". The concept that is in our heads, mind you. When you are guessing between the exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes A, B and C in such a way that guess(A)>0, guess(B)>0, guess(C)>0 and guess(A or B or C) = guess(A) + guess(B) + guess(C) = 1 and guess(A or B) = guess(A) + guess(B), guess(A or C) = guess(A) + guess(C), guess(B or C) = guess(B) + guess(C) then guess is a probability measure as defined by Kolmogorov, for example. That's why most people don't see any problem in calling that "probability". You may like the name of "guessing" better but insisting in that it should not be referred to as probability and it doesn't require probability seems an uphill battle.