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There is no probability whether the next card in the deck is an ace. It either is or it isn't.

by kgwgk 4y ago

ThomPete 4y ago
There is a probability, it can be described based on what cards have already been dealt. It does not change whether that specific card is an ace or not. So yes we agree.
- kgwgk 4y ago
  Do we also agree that - even if you don’t - other people are able to conceive a probability that the next card in the deck is an ace, a probability that I was born on a Saturday, a probability that Germany wins the World Cup, etc.?
  - ThomPete 4y ago
    It's not the discussion whether people can conceive all sorts of things. The discussion is about its relationship to reality.
    - kgwgk 4y ago
      I’m pretty sure you can as well! If you can pick Brazil or Morocco to win $1000 in case the one you choose wins the World Cup which one do you pick? Why? Are you really indifferent between them because you cannot conceive how saying that one is more likely to win than the other could have any relationship to reality?
      - ThomPete 4y ago
        Again if i cant explain who will win, I am simply guessing.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        There is nothing in the mathematical definition of probability that prevents you from applying the formalism to “guessing”. The axiomatic definition of probability is about consistency - not about explanations. Whatever your definition of probability is it seems too restrictive. You may have another name for the “this is more likely than that” statements and the related reasoning processes essential in science, technology and survival in the world. Many people call that “probability” and sucessfully apply probability theory to reason about those things.
        ThomPete 4y ago
        You are missing the point. There is no causal connection between what i describe the probability of X to be and the probability of X. You can say it's 50/50 I can say it's 20/80 none of that have any effect on the outcome. I can either explain the outcome or I cant and adding probability doesn't change that. Again we are not talking about ex. a deck of cards where there is a set number of cards. We are talking about open ended systems like reality.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        You’re missing the bigger point that both 50/50 and 80/20 are valid probability assignments as far as the mathematical theory of probability is concerned. If we were talking about a deck of cards there would be no causal connection between the probability you assign to the next card in the deck and the next card in the deck. Note that for the deck of cards different people can also have different probability assignments! Maybe you saw the first 26 cards as they were dealt face up, I saw them plus the card at the bottom of the deck, someone else has just arrived and has seen only the latest card dealt. Each of us will calculate different probabilities for the next card but all of them are unrelated to reality where the next card in the deck is fixed but unknown to us. Can any of us “explain the outcome”?
        ThomPete 4y ago
        Mathematical theory has no causal effect on reality either. So no I am not missing some bigger point. I might as well make a metaphysical claim like. Thor will make x happen. It's a metaphysical claim.

There is no probability whether the next card in the deck is an ace. It either is or it isn't.

by kgwgk 4y ago

There is no probability whether the next card in the deck is an ace. It either is or it isn't.

There is a probability, it can be described based on what cards have already been dealt. It does not change whether that specific card is an ace or not. So yes we agree.

kgwgk 4y ago
Do we also agree that - even if you don’t - other people are able to conceive a probability that the next card in the deck is an ace, a probability that I was born on a Saturday, a probability that Germany wins the World Cup, etc.?
- ThomPete 4y ago
  It's not the discussion whether people can conceive all sorts of things. The discussion is about its relationship to reality.
  - kgwgk 4y ago
    I’m pretty sure you can as well! If you can pick Brazil or Morocco to win $1000 in case the one you choose wins the World Cup which one do you pick? Why? Are you really indifferent between them because you cannot conceive how saying that one is more likely to win than the other could have any relationship to reality?
    - ThomPete 4y ago
      Again if i cant explain who will win, I am simply guessing.
      - kgwgk 4y ago
        There is nothing in the mathematical definition of probability that prevents you from applying the formalism to “guessing”. The axiomatic definition of probability is about consistency - not about explanations. Whatever your definition of probability is it seems too restrictive. You may have another name for the “this is more likely than that” statements and the related reasoning processes essential in science, technology and survival in the world. Many people call that “probability” and sucessfully apply probability theory to reason about those things.
        ThomPete 4y ago
        You are missing the point. There is no causal connection between what i describe the probability of X to be and the probability of X. You can say it's 50/50 I can say it's 20/80 none of that have any effect on the outcome. I can either explain the outcome or I cant and adding probability doesn't change that. Again we are not talking about ex. a deck of cards where there is a set number of cards. We are talking about open ended systems like reality.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        You’re missing the bigger point that both 50/50 and 80/20 are valid probability assignments as far as the mathematical theory of probability is concerned. If we were talking about a deck of cards there would be no causal connection between the probability you assign to the next card in the deck and the next card in the deck. Note that for the deck of cards different people can also have different probability assignments! Maybe you saw the first 26 cards as they were dealt face up, I saw them plus the card at the bottom of the deck, someone else has just arrived and has seen only the latest card dealt. Each of us will calculate different probabilities for the next card but all of them are unrelated to reality where the next card in the deck is fixed but unknown to us. Can any of us “explain the outcome”?
        ThomPete 4y ago
        Mathematical theory has no causal effect on reality either. So no I am not missing some bigger point. I might as well make a metaphysical claim like. Thor will make x happen. It's a metaphysical claim.