4 ms·

Yes probability have its place for ex error correction in closed systems. But you can't predict the future with it. That's what I am trying to get at.

kqr 4y ago
So what general method of predicting the future are you using that's better? Try to avoid the opt-out "I don't predict the future unless I have perfect explanations of everything" because I know you don't -- no-one does.
- ThomPete 4y ago
  I use the same one as you. I conjecture based on my ability to explain why I think x will happen or wont happen. No amount of putting percentages on X changes X. It either happens or doesn't.
  - kqr 4y ago
    So if I asked you whether you found it more likely that you'll ride a helicopter tomorrow, or that a Democrat will be elected president in the next US presidential election, what would be your answer and why?
    - ThomPete 4y ago
      I would say "I don't know" and I would be lying if I said anything else. I can tell you I don't have any plans of going on a helicopter ride tomorrow. I can also tell you that I have no idea if the next president will be democrat. What formula do you propose we use to calculate the probability?
      - kqr 4y ago
        And if I proposed a bet where you pay me $10 now and I pay you $40 if there's a Democrat president next election, you wouldn't take the bet because "you don't know?" (This situation could be put in a less abstract way: there's a business opportunity that costs some money to realise but you only reap the benefit in the right political climate.)
        ThomPete 4y ago
        I might take the bet but I would just be guessing or I might work towards trying to find a solution to turn the guess into an explanation. At no time does probability help me with figuring out what the outcome is. I can either explain what will happen or I can't. There is no 50/50. I just don't have the correct explanation i.e. an explanation that is hard to vary.
        kqr 4y ago
        Can I interpret your taking the bet as an admission that it's a bet that comes with a positive expectation? (In the sense that if you took similar bets very many times, you would end up with an almost sure profit.)
        ThomPete 4y ago
        No. Just like i dont go to the casino expecting to win.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        Do you ever take an umbrella with you expecting that it may rain later?
        ThomPete 4y ago
        Yes and often I don't end up using it. It will either rain where I am or it wont. I might as well believe in Thor the Thunder God as a theory for why I will bring an umbrella.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        Every single day it will either rain or it won't. Sometimes you will take an umbrella. Based on what you consider the X of rain. That action of yours will be - you hope - non-causally correlated with reality in the sense that if you take the umbrella very many times, you would end up using it often enough to make it worth it. X is what people call 'probability'. How do you call it? [Thor's will?] Have you noticed any correlation between you taking the umbrella and rain later in the day?

kqr 4y ago

So what general method of predicting the future are you using that's better? Try to avoid the opt-out "I don't predict the future unless I have perfect explanations of everything" because I know you don't -- no-one does.

ThomPete 4y ago
I use the same one as you. I conjecture based on my ability to explain why I think x will happen or wont happen. No amount of putting percentages on X changes X. It either happens or doesn't.
- kqr 4y ago
  So if I asked you whether you found it more likely that you'll ride a helicopter tomorrow, or that a Democrat will be elected president in the next US presidential election, what would be your answer and why?
  - ThomPete 4y ago
    I would say "I don't know" and I would be lying if I said anything else. I can tell you I don't have any plans of going on a helicopter ride tomorrow. I can also tell you that I have no idea if the next president will be democrat. What formula do you propose we use to calculate the probability?
    - kqr 4y ago
      And if I proposed a bet where you pay me $10 now and I pay you $40 if there's a Democrat president next election, you wouldn't take the bet because "you don't know?" (This situation could be put in a less abstract way: there's a business opportunity that costs some money to realise but you only reap the benefit in the right political climate.)
      - ThomPete 4y ago
        I might take the bet but I would just be guessing or I might work towards trying to find a solution to turn the guess into an explanation. At no time does probability help me with figuring out what the outcome is. I can either explain what will happen or I can't. There is no 50/50. I just don't have the correct explanation i.e. an explanation that is hard to vary.
        kqr 4y ago
        Can I interpret your taking the bet as an admission that it's a bet that comes with a positive expectation? (In the sense that if you took similar bets very many times, you would end up with an almost sure profit.)
        ThomPete 4y ago
        No. Just like i dont go to the casino expecting to win.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        Do you ever take an umbrella with you expecting that it may rain later?
        ThomPete 4y ago
        Yes and often I don't end up using it. It will either rain where I am or it wont. I might as well believe in Thor the Thunder God as a theory for why I will bring an umbrella.
        kgwgk 4y ago
        Every single day it will either rain or it won't. Sometimes you will take an umbrella. Based on what you consider the X of rain. That action of yours will be - you hope - non-causally correlated with reality in the sense that if you take the umbrella very many times, you would end up using it often enough to make it worth it. X is what people call 'probability'. How do you call it? [Thor's will?] Have you noticed any correlation between you taking the umbrella and rain later in the day?