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> In reality it either is or it isn't. If you have good explanations like we do in physics you don't need probability. You mean good explanations and observati
by kqr 4y ago
> In reality it either is or it isn't. If you have good explanations like we do in physics you don't need probability.
You mean good explanations and observations? You're absolutely right in that if you are able to observe all the relevant information with no noise, you don't need probability. But there are a lot of systems where you can't noiselessly observe what you want – this is where probability is important.
- ThomPete 4y agoYes probability have its place for ex error correction in closed systems. But you can't predict the future with it. That's what I am trying to get at.
- kqr 4y agoSo what general method of predicting the future are you using that's better? Try to avoid the opt-out "I don't predict the future unless I have perfect explanations of everything" because I know you don't -- no-one does.
- ThomPete 4y agoI use the same one as you. I conjecture based on my ability to explain why I think x will happen or wont happen. No amount of putting percentages on X changes X. It either happens or doesn't.
- kqr 4y agoSo if I asked you whether you found it more likely that you'll ride a helicopter tomorrow, or that a Democrat will be elected president in the next US presidential election, what would be your answer and why?
- ThomPete 4y agoI would say "I don't know" and I would be lying if I said anything else. I can tell you I don't have any plans of going on a helicopter ride tomorrow. I can also tell you that I have no idea if the next president will be democrat. What formula do you propose we use to calculate the probability?
- kqr 4y agoAnd if I proposed a bet where you pay me $10 now and I pay you $40 if there's a Democrat president next election, you wouldn't take the bet because "you don't know?" (This situation could be put in a less abstract way: there's a business opportunity that costs some money to realise but you only reap the benefit in the right political climate.)
- ThomPete 4y agoI might take the bet but I would just be guessing or I might work towards trying to find a solution to turn the guess into an explanation. At no time does probability help me with figuring out what the outcome is. I can either explain what will happen or I can't. There is no 50/50. I just don't have the correct explanation i.e. an explanation that is hard to vary.
- kqr 4y agoCan I interpret your taking the bet as an admission that it's a bet that comes with a positive expectation? (In the sense that if you took similar bets very many times, you would end up with an almost sure profit.)