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My take is that companies hired like crazy during the pandemic and these people will be junior employees who have larger overhead, smaller output. Problem with

My take is that companies hired like crazy during the pandemic and these people will be junior employees who have larger overhead, smaller output. Problem with tech right now is that it 1. Failing to justify valuations that were reached during the pandemic. Which come crashing down when interest rates starts rising. So many got caught with unsustainable budgets and commitments 2. Mass quitting that happened during the pandemic which was plugged frivolously by mass^2 hiring. I don't think tech companies are going anywhere before getting their lost employees back. My thesis is, layoffs will impact new/young hires and newly created units/departments

zero_shift 4y ago
Absolutely. Trainee staff are not efficient (by definition) and provide a low ratio of productivity to investment. However, so long as your new hires have net positive impact, it's worth having them if gross velocity can expand your share of a growing market. The market has been ripe for about a decade now, thanks to quantitative easing and cheap capital propping up consumer spend. In addition those low interest rates make it inexpensive to borrow money and hire that army of developers. Coming into a more cautious market, however, where things are more expensive, the balance shifts more towards spend control and getting value for money. Which is why I think junior hiring will slow down for a few years: more experienced staff are more productive relative to their incomes, and they probably won't be promoted out of IC as quickly as they used to due to businesses slowing down. I think the age of retraining in tech as a no-brainer is behind us now. To be honest I think that was happening already as the junior market became saturated. New entrants might have to spend more cycles applying for jobs; coding bootcamps may shutter.

zero_shift 4y ago

Absolutely. Trainee staff are not efficient (by definition) and provide a low ratio of productivity to investment. However, so long as your new hires have net positive impact, it's worth having them if gross velocity can expand your share of a growing market. The market has been ripe for about a decade now, thanks to quantitative easing and cheap capital propping up consumer spend. In addition those low interest rates make it inexpensive to borrow money and hire that army of developers. Coming into a more cautious market, however, where things are more expensive, the balance shifts more towards spend control and getting value for money. Which is why I think junior hiring will slow down for a few years: more experienced staff are more productive relative to their incomes, and they probably won't be promoted out of IC as quickly as they used to due to businesses slowing down. I think the age of retraining in tech as a no-brainer is behind us now. To be honest I think that was happening already as the junior market became saturated. New entrants might have to spend more cycles applying for jobs; coding bootcamps may shutter.