There are a lot of very smart folks who are trying to predict what the fed will do when something breaks. Their opinions are all over the map. In addition to

There are a lot of very smart folks who are trying to predict what the fed will do when something breaks. Their opinions are all over the map. In addition to that uncertainty, you have the uncertainty in the market's reaction. If the fed does 'pivot' (whatever that means, because to some folks it means rate cuts, to others QE, and to some just a rate hike and/or QT pause earlier than expected) the market may see it as bullish or may react negatively because it is a signal that things are very unwell in the economy. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm pretty sure there is precedent for greater pain in equities after rates have peaked.