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> and the attacks of September 11th Were they predicted by the yield curve inversion? Amazing. Those bond traders really know what they're doing.
by geysersam 4y ago
> and the attacks of September 11th
Were they predicted by the yield curve inversion? Amazing. Those bond traders really know what they're doing.
- angrycontrarian 4y agoBelieve it or not, the bond market predicted covid months in advance with another yield curve inversion.
- geysersam 4y agoHow do we know there's a casual connection? Sure, the yield cure was inverted, but if you asked an economist about that in late 2019 they could have given you plenty of reasons for that, but Covid would not have been one of them.
- BigBubbleButt 4y agoBelieve it or not, there were some traders that seemed to predict 9/11. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/503645#metadata_info_tab_contents https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/503645#metadata_info_ta...
- geysersam 4y agoI believe they seemed to predict 9/11.
- BigBubbleButt 4y agoThe point of the paper is they had inside information, so they did predict it.
- geysersam 4y agoBin Ladin might have traded before the attack, it's possible. But that has nothing to do with the yield curve inversion as indicator of approchong economic downturn.
- roenxi 4y agoI suspect there is a lot of heavy sarcasm in this thread, but just in case people following along can't read it ... the 9/11 attacks probably didn't have any particular economic effect at all. The already-going-to-happen economic impacts were blamed on 9/11 and the US government's unhinged overreaction to 9/11 was possibly motivated in part by the signalling in the bond market.
- PedroBatista 4y agoJust like the high inflation caused by the war in Ukraine, not the trillions of moneys printed over a decade.
- quickthrower2 4y agoThe printed money is funnelled to assets “not inflation”, the war affects bread and butter (literally) “inflation”.
- PedroBatista 4y agoI mean.. at a loss for words.. Agree to disagree I guess.
- quickthrower2 4y agoRead my “ as fingers in the air…
- hnuser847 4y agoThe 12-month inflation rate was already 8% prior to the invasion in Ukraine. Gas prices nearly doubled between March 2020 and February 2022. Blaming inflation on the war in Ukraine only makes sense if you ignore the previous two years.
- sangnoir 4y ago> Gas prices nearly doubled between March 2020 and February 2022. The months you selected are pretty much peak lockdown vs peak recovery, and are a reflection of demand for gas, not an oracle of some deep economic truth. Franky, I'm surprised the gas price difference is so small, considering the US economy shut down in March of 2020.