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I typically do not respond to posts about China partly, because I simply do not believe I know enough about it to comment appropriately. Still, what I do know i

I typically do not respond to posts about China partly, because I simply do not believe I know enough about it to comment appropriately. Still, what I do know is that accurate information about China in general is a lot harder to obtain that information about US. From get go this means that any discussion about demographics, real estate or banking is more speculative than anything else. Worse, it is hard to rely on anecdata, because of how large China's population is and how ( as I learned recently ) un-united China's population is ( when compared to US ). Those two factors alone should make one hesitate with offering any major predictions on its trajectory. I am not automatically saying you are wrong, but with exception of real estate, there is little I can find where somewhat verifiable data seem to support it.

deltasevennine 4y ago
I'm chinese (american born), I have a lot of chinese friends and relatives so I know about a lot of the on the ground anecdotal data. From that anecdotal data, I would say this video perfectly matches what I'm seeing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V30VyMMce9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V30VyMMce9s
- redanddead 4y ago
  I'm not Chinese American, or even American. I'm Canadian. I never understood why people want another country to "collapse". It'd be such a humanitarian tragedy it would go from a quick moment of blind happiness to horror, think of the millions of elderly depending on pensions, already living on the edge. The kids depending on school lunches. Our real enemies are at home, it's the corporations.
  - nivenkos 4y ago
    Americans love war. From Vietnam to Iraq to Ukraine to Taiwan. It's all a spectator sport for them. The USA has never been invaded by a foreign power since 1812.
  - deltasevennine 4y ago
    It's easy to understand. Sports teams. It's the same concept. The US has literally been the best economy for decades. Now a 2nd place contender is rising up, it's natural for people to feel this way and latch on to every negative thing about that country and magnify it. It happens on both sides, the Chinese feel the same way about the US of A too.
origin_path 4y ago
Analysis of electric lights at night observed by satellites normally correlates well with GDP, but in the case of China it doesn't. It indicates that GDP was being over-reported significantly: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296
Phrenzy 4y ago
Here is some demographic info. China's population numbers: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chi...

deltasevennine 4y ago

I'm chinese (american born), I have a lot of chinese friends and relatives so I know about a lot of the on the ground anecdotal data. From that anecdotal data, I would say this video perfectly matches what I'm seeing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V30VyMMce9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V30VyMMce9s

redanddead 4y ago
I'm not Chinese American, or even American. I'm Canadian. I never understood why people want another country to "collapse". It'd be such a humanitarian tragedy it would go from a quick moment of blind happiness to horror, think of the millions of elderly depending on pensions, already living on the edge. The kids depending on school lunches. Our real enemies are at home, it's the corporations.
- nivenkos 4y ago
  Americans love war. From Vietnam to Iraq to Ukraine to Taiwan. It's all a spectator sport for them. The USA has never been invaded by a foreign power since 1812.
- deltasevennine 4y ago
  It's easy to understand. Sports teams. It's the same concept. The US has literally been the best economy for decades. Now a 2nd place contender is rising up, it's natural for people to feel this way and latch on to every negative thing about that country and magnify it. It happens on both sides, the Chinese feel the same way about the US of A too.

origin_path 4y ago

Analysis of electric lights at night observed by satellites normally correlates well with GDP, but in the case of China it doesn't. It indicates that GDP was being over-reported significantly: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296

Phrenzy 4y ago

Here is some demographic info. China's population numbers: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chi...