3 ms·

I don't know if I believe this POV, from what I've seen automation is an enabler to branch into broader product base.

tuatoru 4y ago
I agree. Back in 2013 Frey and Osborne published a paper saying that 47% of US workers were threatened with unemployment from automation. Here we are nine years later, and the prime working age employment-to-population ratio is higher than it was then[1], and unemployment is under half the 2013 rate.[2] If automation is happening, it's probably increasing employment. 1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 2. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- JoeAltmaier 4y ago
  Sure if 'employment' is slinging burgers. The fact is in America at least, folks have been sliding down the occupation ladder for a generation. Somebody who used to manage a shift at a factory is now selling shoes or a security guard. An office manager becomes a McDonald's manager. And so on and so on. So sure, be comforted by employment statistic, but remember that the govt has been obsessing over them for half a century, and they don't reflect wealth or happiness. Witness the fraction of us that can't afford a house.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Good points. Looking at one statistic in isolation is not going to give me a good picture. Thanks for the reminder.
astrange 4y ago
Yes, automation causing unemployment is a myth that seems to be related to the "AI is going to eat us" Singularity people. Automation does the opposite, it creates employment. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots-and-lots https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots...
- JoeAltmaier 4y ago
  Nah. 'Creating jobs' means "this factory doesn't need you or have a career for you, so go work someplace menial instead to put food on the table" Its just a plain fact that manufacturing has a tiny fraction of the people employed that it did a generation or two ago. Blurring that with hopeful 'employment' statistics that ignore what kind of employment, is PollyAnna stuff.
  - astrange 4y ago
    You didn't read the article I linked, unless you think nobody in South Korea works in manufacturing.
    - peteradio 4y ago
      I think he's implying that those jobs aren't for the "regular joe". I again don't agree with him based on my own experience.

I agree. Back in 2013 Frey and Osborne published a paper saying that 47% of US workers were threatened with unemployment from automation. Here we are nine years later, and the prime working age employment-to-population ratio is higher than it was then[1], and unemployment is under half the 2013 rate.[2] If automation is happening, it's probably increasing employment. 1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 2. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

JoeAltmaier 4y ago
Sure if 'employment' is slinging burgers. The fact is in America at least, folks have been sliding down the occupation ladder for a generation. Somebody who used to manage a shift at a factory is now selling shoes or a security guard. An office manager becomes a McDonald's manager. And so on and so on. So sure, be comforted by employment statistic, but remember that the govt has been obsessing over them for half a century, and they don't reflect wealth or happiness. Witness the fraction of us that can't afford a house.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Good points. Looking at one statistic in isolation is not going to give me a good picture. Thanks for the reminder.

astrange 4y ago

Yes, automation causing unemployment is a myth that seems to be related to the "AI is going to eat us" Singularity people. Automation does the opposite, it creates employment. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots-and-lots https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots...

JoeAltmaier 4y ago
Nah. 'Creating jobs' means "this factory doesn't need you or have a career for you, so go work someplace menial instead to put food on the table" Its just a plain fact that manufacturing has a tiny fraction of the people employed that it did a generation or two ago. Blurring that with hopeful 'employment' statistics that ignore what kind of employment, is PollyAnna stuff.
- astrange 4y ago
  You didn't read the article I linked, unless you think nobody in South Korea works in manufacturing.
  - peteradio 4y ago
    I think he's implying that those jobs aren't for the "regular joe". I again don't agree with him based on my own experience.