4 ms·

All depends on the size of the factory. Too small - can't swallow the large pill which is automation (hiring engineers, consultants, very expensive equipment).

All depends on the size of the factory. Too small - can't swallow the large pill which is automation (hiring engineers, consultants, very expensive equipment). But as soon as your payroll hits a certain figure, automation becomes cheaper and bang! small town everybody laid off. And it isn't all that big a number really.

peteradio 4y ago
I don't know if I believe this POV, from what I've seen automation is an enabler to branch into broader product base.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  I agree. Back in 2013 Frey and Osborne published a paper saying that 47% of US workers were threatened with unemployment from automation. Here we are nine years later, and the prime working age employment-to-population ratio is higher than it was then[1], and unemployment is under half the 2013 rate.[2] If automation is happening, it's probably increasing employment. 1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 2. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
  - JoeAltmaier 4y ago
    Sure if 'employment' is slinging burgers. The fact is in America at least, folks have been sliding down the occupation ladder for a generation. Somebody who used to manage a shift at a factory is now selling shoes or a security guard. An office manager becomes a McDonald's manager. And so on and so on. So sure, be comforted by employment statistic, but remember that the govt has been obsessing over them for half a century, and they don't reflect wealth or happiness. Witness the fraction of us that can't afford a house.
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      Good points. Looking at one statistic in isolation is not going to give me a good picture. Thanks for the reminder.
- astrange 4y ago
  Yes, automation causing unemployment is a myth that seems to be related to the "AI is going to eat us" Singularity people. Automation does the opposite, it creates employment. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots-and-lots https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots...
  - JoeAltmaier 4y ago
    Nah. 'Creating jobs' means "this factory doesn't need you or have a career for you, so go work someplace menial instead to put food on the table" Its just a plain fact that manufacturing has a tiny fraction of the people employed that it did a generation or two ago. Blurring that with hopeful 'employment' statistics that ignore what kind of employment, is PollyAnna stuff.
    - astrange 4y ago
      You didn't read the article I linked, unless you think nobody in South Korea works in manufacturing.
      - peteradio 4y ago
        I think he's implying that those jobs aren't for the "regular joe". I again don't agree with him based on my own experience.
nyokodo 4y ago
> bang! small town everybody laid off. The labor shortage is changing this calculus very rapidly. I’m not saying it can’t still happen but it’s much more likely that the factory is lacking people to fill in the wide gaps in the automation possible.
- nine_zeros 4y ago
  This is probably the reason. There was a spike in retirements during covid. But more importantly, the number of retirees by year is above average too: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/january/great-retirement-who-are-retirees https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/january/great...
  - nyokodo 4y ago
    The bulk of the baby boomers have just hit retirement age, we have a much smaller GenX to inadequately replace them on the experienced end, a career-stunted Millennial generation filing in the middle, and an even smaller than GenX Zoomer generation joining the lower ranks. It’s a mess, but if the Millennials catch up and have enough kids then we’ll have a light at the end of the tunnel in 20 years.
    - nine_zeros 4y ago
      > if the Millennials catch up and have enough kids This is a big "if" and as a millenial, I don't see any signs of people wanting to have more than 1 kid. They have struggled throughout our life and don't want to sacrifice more.
  - formerkrogemp 4y ago
    Let's not downplay the deaths due to covid and lack of immigration playing a role. It's almost never just the one thing.

peteradio 4y ago

I don't know if I believe this POV, from what I've seen automation is an enabler to branch into broader product base.

tuatoru 4y ago
I agree. Back in 2013 Frey and Osborne published a paper saying that 47% of US workers were threatened with unemployment from automation. Here we are nine years later, and the prime working age employment-to-population ratio is higher than it was then[1], and unemployment is under half the 2013 rate.[2] If automation is happening, it's probably increasing employment. 1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 2. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- JoeAltmaier 4y ago
  Sure if 'employment' is slinging burgers. The fact is in America at least, folks have been sliding down the occupation ladder for a generation. Somebody who used to manage a shift at a factory is now selling shoes or a security guard. An office manager becomes a McDonald's manager. And so on and so on. So sure, be comforted by employment statistic, but remember that the govt has been obsessing over them for half a century, and they don't reflect wealth or happiness. Witness the fraction of us that can't afford a house.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Good points. Looking at one statistic in isolation is not going to give me a good picture. Thanks for the reminder.
astrange 4y ago
Yes, automation causing unemployment is a myth that seems to be related to the "AI is going to eat us" Singularity people. Automation does the opposite, it creates employment. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots-and-lots https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/american-workers-need-lots...
- JoeAltmaier 4y ago
  Nah. 'Creating jobs' means "this factory doesn't need you or have a career for you, so go work someplace menial instead to put food on the table" Its just a plain fact that manufacturing has a tiny fraction of the people employed that it did a generation or two ago. Blurring that with hopeful 'employment' statistics that ignore what kind of employment, is PollyAnna stuff.
  - astrange 4y ago
    You didn't read the article I linked, unless you think nobody in South Korea works in manufacturing.
    - peteradio 4y ago
      I think he's implying that those jobs aren't for the "regular joe". I again don't agree with him based on my own experience.

nyokodo 4y ago

> bang! small town everybody laid off. The labor shortage is changing this calculus very rapidly. I’m not saying it can’t still happen but it’s much more likely that the factory is lacking people to fill in the wide gaps in the automation possible.

nine_zeros 4y ago
This is probably the reason. There was a spike in retirements during covid. But more importantly, the number of retirees by year is above average too: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/january/great-retirement-who-are-retirees https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/january/great...
- nyokodo 4y ago
  The bulk of the baby boomers have just hit retirement age, we have a much smaller GenX to inadequately replace them on the experienced end, a career-stunted Millennial generation filing in the middle, and an even smaller than GenX Zoomer generation joining the lower ranks. It’s a mess, but if the Millennials catch up and have enough kids then we’ll have a light at the end of the tunnel in 20 years.
  - nine_zeros 4y ago
    > if the Millennials catch up and have enough kids This is a big "if" and as a millenial, I don't see any signs of people wanting to have more than 1 kid. They have struggled throughout our life and don't want to sacrifice more.
- formerkrogemp 4y ago
  Let's not downplay the deaths due to covid and lack of immigration playing a role. It's almost never just the one thing.