5 ms·

The Expanse is one of the TV series that I was thinking of actually when I wrote that comment. It'd be too long to write down here but I feel like while The Exp

The Expanse is one of the TV series that I was thinking of actually when I wrote that comment. It'd be too long to write down here but I feel like while The Expanse got many things right it also portrayed all sorts of fundamental things that were completely off. For example even in the first season things that are fundamentally off that result in very different futures: * The idea that we would actively intentionally re-create the situation of MAD in another context. MAD was an accident of historical happenstance and now that we know about it, we wouldn't try to re-create it. * The idea that a magical new engine would suddenly appear that made many of the things in the tv series possible. * The idea that Earth will for some reason simultaneously become a massive welfare state, yet still somehow have solar-system spanning power. * The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor rights and labor safety (the ice asteroid mining scene).

samatman 4y ago
It sounds like fiction isn't your style, basically. It would be a boring landscape if all the predictions which went into every science-fiction story were the ones you happen to like. Add them up, you get Star Trek. That's great: but we already have Star Trek.
- motoxpro 4y ago
  Agree, 100%. I storytelling without the imagination is a story that doesn't change your perspective in any way.
kiba 4y ago
Utopia makes for very boring television. Dystopian megacorporations make the future interesting to watch. There's a reason why there's a Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting time."
- Joeboy 4y ago
  > Utopia makes for very boring television. The original Channel 4 version was brilliant (although the subject matter didn't age well, or maybe aged a bit too well). Didn't see the US remake but heard it was a dud. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJnN3WMwDsk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJnN3WMwDsk
- thaumasiotes 4y ago
  > There's a reason why there's a Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting time." This cannot be true, because there is no such curse.
  - Anthony-G 4y ago
    Another myth busted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_ti...
- mlindner 4y ago
  Dystopia is just as lacking in creativity as Utopia. You can have very interesting things happening even when overall society is getting better. For example: A TV series showing civilization winning against some form of evil is plenty interesting and has been done many times, despite it not being dystopian. Right now it's become "popular" to have things go badly or to have a set standard start of things going badly. This is a mental disease of movie writers in the modern era.
- Broken_Hippo 4y ago
  Utopia doesn't mean that there are no more challenges, it just means they are different. You can have space travel in a utopia - same with time travel. There are lots of ways to get into dangerous situations. The drama is just centered around different things than it is with dystopias.
A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
It is possible that I am biased, because I watched Expanse and ( apart from being annoyed by how it quickly it became a relationship show ) I absolutely bought into the premise including the points you listed: * The idea that we would actively intentionally re-create the situation of MAD in another context. MAD was an accident of historical happenstance and now that we know about it, we wouldn't try to re-create it. If there is one thing that best predicts how individual human will behave, it is how they have behaved in the past. It is sad, but that is the reality. Similarly, as a species, once we know, a certain set of actions are an option, there will be people who will aim for that set of actions. If a creation of blackholes becomes possible, you can rest assured, MAD will almost instantly will be recreated throughout the known human biome. I personally think you give humanity way too much credit than it deserves. * The idea that a magical new engine would suddenly appear that made many of the things in the tv series possible. Hmm, not exactly magically, but most of recent technological wonders sped up developments in other areas significantly to the point, where ( naturally with exception of fusion which is always 20 years away ) we sometimes see developments in ways that could not be imagined before ( Operation Warp speed and resulting vaccine come to mind ) save for science fiction's like Rainbow's End, where a line between development and production is.. ridiculously short. I think in the span of human existence, suddenly likely needs to be limited by definition somehow. * The idea that Earth will for some reason simultaneously become a massive welfare state, yet still somehow have solar-system spanning power. I don't want to be that guy, but not to search very far Soviet Russia was just such a state ( with the tech allowed to it at the time ). I am not sure how this is a contradiction. Each society governs its own priorities. * The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor rights and labor safety (the ice asteroid mining scene). I can't even.. We can just barely force corporations to maintain labor rights now with some semblance of control since we have them physically operating and we can summon the representative in court and enforce compliance. And even then, those controls are eroded via various means. Is it really that difficult to imagine 'when cats away' scenario?
- tremon 4y ago
  we wouldn't try to re-create it Some people argue that we've already recreated it: https://consilienceproject.org/its-a-mad-information-war/ https://consilienceproject.org/its-a-mad-information-war/ > While the 2016 U.S. election was a watershed in computational propaganda, the same phenomenon has basically swept the planet, beginning as early as 2010.[..] We posit that this frontier leads toward mutually assured destruction, like all frontiers of arms races in weapons technologies.
haswell 4y ago
Addressing your points: 1. Is it recreation, or just maintaining the status quo? Once MAD exists, I don’t think it ever stops existing. Space creates an opportunity to escape MAD thus intrinsically a threat. It’s not hard to imagine MAD proliferating as humanity proliferates. It may seem obvious that this is the wrong path, but it’s not obvious that major world players see things the same way. 2. I think books and shows tend to be made about periods of time that involve extraordinary discoveries because the time prior to this is not particularly interesting and there wouldn’t be anything to tell a space story about. This show also sets out to show the relatively near future and early stages of space exploration which means it must necessarily come on the heels of some major breakthrough. 3. Why do the two have to be mutually exclusive? Is this too far off from current reality? 4. Look at the current climate towards human rights and the trend towards losing them worldwide. Recent major decisions by the US Supreme Court also come to mind. That old behaviors would re-emerge in environments subject to less oversight seems pretty plausible. Obviously everyone has personal preferences, but $0.02.
pehtis 4y ago
About your first point, MAD was actually developed by John von Neumann and there is nothing accidental about it. 'He also "moved heaven and earth" to bring MAD about.' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann#Mutual_assured_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann#Mutual_assure...
- gridspy 4y ago
  Yes, but in response to the soviet threat. > [The Soviets] believed that whoever had superiority in these weapons would take over the world, without necessarily using them. He was afraid of a "missile gap" and took several more steps to achieve his goal of keeping up with the Soviets (This is an except from the parent's wikipedia link)
klyrs 4y ago
> The idea that a magical new engine would suddenly appear that made many of the things in the tv series possible. Assuming you're talking about the Epstein Drive and not the protomolecule... it didn't suddenly appear, it was invented. And, surprisingly enough, it's way closer to realistic than most scifi. http://toughsf.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-expanses-epstein-drive.html?m=1 http://toughsf.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-expanses-epstein-dri... > The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor rights and labor safety (the ice asteroid mining scene). What labor laws cover the asteroid belt today? Or, closer to home, the moon? If an earthly nation claims some territory out there its own and seeks to enforce the law, that's one thing. But what if a private company sends workers out there in unclaimed space? Humanity hasn't had access to such a lawless frontier in centuries, but we've got a lot of ugly history to look back on. Civil rights are not won by optimists, they're won through bloody and protracted fights. Look no further than Apple to see that companies in today's economy are still fully on board with slavery and sweatshops, and Apple is one of the "good guys" known for holding vendors' feet to the fire over human rights abuses.
Izkata 4y ago
> The idea that we would actively intentionally re-create the situation of MAD in another context. MAD was an accident of historical happenstance and now that we know about it, we wouldn't try to re-create it. I haven't seen The Expanse, but "try" doesn't seem to come into it: We are very close to that situation right now with NATO and Russia.
lozenge 4y ago
"The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor rights and labor safety" Our economy has always relied on people lacking labor rights or safety. From serfdom, to colonialism, to slavery, to police fighting strikes, to banana republics (governments overthrown for not trading on the US terms), and today hundreds of millions work in unsafe conditions or as child labor for coffee, chocolate, diamonds, precious metals, clothing, in recycling, etc. But that doesn't make good TV, so it's asteroid mining and there's no kids on screen. As for the idea the human race has transcended past MAD... that's just wishful thinking on your part! I could equally say capitalism was due to historical happenstance and wouldn't be invented today. It would have about as much evidence.
OkayPhysicist 4y ago
I've got to disagree with a couple of your examples: * MAD has proven an extremely effective tool for maintaining (relative) peace. It's almost certainly the only reason for the Russian Federation remaining an ongoing concern, and it's been the primary motivator for the continued existence of NATO, which is itself a stabilizing force. If you're a state that wishes to maintain independence, super weapons are a proven approach. * In the US, we're currently watching a backslide of all sorts of gains made over the last century. History is far from monotonic, and taking progress for granted is a surefire recipe for losing it. In the case of a full-blown regime change, it would not at all be a given that basic things like labor rights were upheld.

samatman 4y ago

It sounds like fiction isn't your style, basically. It would be a boring landscape if all the predictions which went into every science-fiction story were the ones you happen to like. Add them up, you get Star Trek. That's great: but we already have Star Trek.

motoxpro 4y ago
Agree, 100%. I storytelling without the imagination is a story that doesn't change your perspective in any way.

kiba 4y ago

Utopia makes for very boring television. Dystopian megacorporations make the future interesting to watch. There's a reason why there's a Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting time."

Joeboy 4y ago
> Utopia makes for very boring television. The original Channel 4 version was brilliant (although the subject matter didn't age well, or maybe aged a bit too well). Didn't see the US remake but heard it was a dud. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJnN3WMwDsk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJnN3WMwDsk
thaumasiotes 4y ago
> There's a reason why there's a Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting time." This cannot be true, because there is no such curse.
- Anthony-G 4y ago
  Another myth busted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_ti...
mlindner 4y ago
Dystopia is just as lacking in creativity as Utopia. You can have very interesting things happening even when overall society is getting better. For example: A TV series showing civilization winning against some form of evil is plenty interesting and has been done many times, despite it not being dystopian. Right now it's become "popular" to have things go badly or to have a set standard start of things going badly. This is a mental disease of movie writers in the modern era.
Broken_Hippo 4y ago
Utopia doesn't mean that there are no more challenges, it just means they are different. You can have space travel in a utopia - same with time travel. There are lots of ways to get into dangerous situations. The drama is just centered around different things than it is with dystopias.

A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago

It is possible that I am biased, because I watched Expanse and ( apart from being annoyed by how it quickly it became a relationship show ) I absolutely bought into the premise including the points you listed: * The idea that we would actively intentionally re-create the situation of MAD in another context. MAD was an accident of historical happenstance and now that we know about it, we wouldn't try to re-create it. If there is one thing that best predicts how individual human will behave, it is how they have behaved in the past. It is sad, but that is the reality. Similarly, as a species, once we know, a certain set of actions are an option, there will be people who will aim for that set of actions. If a creation of blackholes becomes possible, you can rest assured, MAD will almost instantly will be recreated throughout the known human biome. I personally think you give humanity way too much credit than it deserves. * The idea that a magical new engine would suddenly appear that made many of the things in the tv series possible. Hmm, not exactly magically, but most of recent technological wonders sped up developments in other areas significantly to the point, where ( naturally with exception of fusion which is always 20 years away ) we sometimes see developments in ways that could not be imagined before ( Operation Warp speed and resulting vaccine come to mind ) save for science fiction's like Rainbow's End, where a line between development and production is.. ridiculously short. I think in the span of human existence, suddenly likely needs to be limited by definition somehow. * The idea that Earth will for some reason simultaneously become a massive welfare state, yet still somehow have solar-system spanning power. I don't want to be that guy, but not to search very far Soviet Russia was just such a state ( with the tech allowed to it at the time ). I am not sure how this is a contradiction. Each society governs its own priorities. * The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor rights and labor safety (the ice asteroid mining scene). I can't even.. We can just barely force corporations to maintain labor rights now with some semblance of control since we have them physically operating and we can summon the representative in court and enforce compliance. And even then, those controls are eroded via various means. Is it really that difficult to imagine 'when cats away' scenario?

tremon 4y ago
we wouldn't try to re-create it Some people argue that we've already recreated it: https://consilienceproject.org/its-a-mad-information-war/ https://consilienceproject.org/its-a-mad-information-war/ > While the 2016 U.S. election was a watershed in computational propaganda, the same phenomenon has basically swept the planet, beginning as early as 2010.[..] We posit that this frontier leads toward mutually assured destruction, like all frontiers of arms races in weapons technologies.

haswell 4y ago

Addressing your points: 1. Is it recreation, or just maintaining the status quo? Once MAD exists, I don’t think it ever stops existing. Space creates an opportunity to escape MAD thus intrinsically a threat. It’s not hard to imagine MAD proliferating as humanity proliferates. It may seem obvious that this is the wrong path, but it’s not obvious that major world players see things the same way. 2. I think books and shows tend to be made about periods of time that involve extraordinary discoveries because the time prior to this is not particularly interesting and there wouldn’t be anything to tell a space story about. This show also sets out to show the relatively near future and early stages of space exploration which means it must necessarily come on the heels of some major breakthrough. 3. Why do the two have to be mutually exclusive? Is this too far off from current reality? 4. Look at the current climate towards human rights and the trend towards losing them worldwide. Recent major decisions by the US Supreme Court also come to mind. That old behaviors would re-emerge in environments subject to less oversight seems pretty plausible. Obviously everyone has personal preferences, but $0.02.

pehtis 4y ago

About your first point, MAD was actually developed by John von Neumann and there is nothing accidental about it. 'He also "moved heaven and earth" to bring MAD about.' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann#Mutual_assured_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann#Mutual_assure...

gridspy 4y ago
Yes, but in response to the soviet threat. > [The Soviets] believed that whoever had superiority in these weapons would take over the world, without necessarily using them. He was afraid of a "missile gap" and took several more steps to achieve his goal of keeping up with the Soviets (This is an except from the parent's wikipedia link)

klyrs 4y ago

> The idea that a magical new engine would suddenly appear that made many of the things in the tv series possible. Assuming you're talking about the Epstein Drive and not the protomolecule... it didn't suddenly appear, it was invented. And, surprisingly enough, it's way closer to realistic than most scifi. http://toughsf.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-expanses-epstein-drive.html?m=1 http://toughsf.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-expanses-epstein-dri... > The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor rights and labor safety (the ice asteroid mining scene). What labor laws cover the asteroid belt today? Or, closer to home, the moon? If an earthly nation claims some territory out there its own and seeks to enforce the law, that's one thing. But what if a private company sends workers out there in unclaimed space? Humanity hasn't had access to such a lawless frontier in centuries, but we've got a lot of ugly history to look back on. Civil rights are not won by optimists, they're won through bloody and protracted fights. Look no further than Apple to see that companies in today's economy are still fully on board with slavery and sweatshops, and Apple is one of the "good guys" known for holding vendors' feet to the fire over human rights abuses.

Izkata 4y ago

> The idea that we would actively intentionally re-create the situation of MAD in another context. MAD was an accident of historical happenstance and now that we know about it, we wouldn't try to re-create it. I haven't seen The Expanse, but "try" doesn't seem to come into it: We are very close to that situation right now with NATO and Russia.

lozenge 4y ago

"The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor rights and labor safety" Our economy has always relied on people lacking labor rights or safety. From serfdom, to colonialism, to slavery, to police fighting strikes, to banana republics (governments overthrown for not trading on the US terms), and today hundreds of millions work in unsafe conditions or as child labor for coffee, chocolate, diamonds, precious metals, clothing, in recycling, etc. But that doesn't make good TV, so it's asteroid mining and there's no kids on screen. As for the idea the human race has transcended past MAD... that's just wishful thinking on your part! I could equally say capitalism was due to historical happenstance and wouldn't be invented today. It would have about as much evidence.

OkayPhysicist 4y ago

I've got to disagree with a couple of your examples: * MAD has proven an extremely effective tool for maintaining (relative) peace. It's almost certainly the only reason for the Russian Federation remaining an ongoing concern, and it's been the primary motivator for the continued existence of NATO, which is itself a stabilizing force. If you're a state that wishes to maintain independence, super weapons are a proven approach. * In the US, we're currently watching a backslide of all sorts of gains made over the last century. History is far from monotonic, and taking progress for granted is a surefire recipe for losing it. In the case of a full-blown regime change, it would not at all be a given that basic things like labor rights were upheld.