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I have lived in Scotland for the past twenty years. A few years ago, we had by far the worst snow I have ever seen here. I live in a coastal area that usually d

I have lived in Scotland for the past twenty years. A few years ago, we had by far the worst snow I have ever seen here. I live in a coastal area that usually doesn't get snow, we had 12ft high drifts and everything shut down for a few days (iirc, it was 2018). There has been no noticeable difference in the frequency of snow either (it usually doesn't snow at all now, and is usually worst in late January/February...I don't know what people think Scotland is, we have a ski slope and in the 90s it was often not open in winter because there was no snow, the weather here is fairly temperate). Attributing one thing to climate change is difficult.

pjc50 4y ago
"The beast from the east"? I remember that, for a few days shops weren't being supplied with fresh food. > Attributing one thing to climate change is difficult. Yes. A pattern of things, on the other hand ...
- bequanna 4y ago
  > Yes. A pattern of things, on the other hand ... Is it a real pattern? Or maybe just a simple feedback loop caused by click-bait journalism and confirmation bias.
iso1631 4y ago
One mild winter is not sign of climate change, and one harsh winter is not sign of climate change. However when a snow free Scotland changes from being once every 50 years to every other year, that's a strong correlation with climate change.
- skippyboxedhero 4y ago
  It hasn't. That is what I am saying. People think it snows all the time here, it doesn't. I have lived here for 20 years, my parents lived here for decades before, the weather is largely the same (the UK has been getting warmer for about a century and a half, so the Thames used to freeze over but that stopped a long time before climate change started). This doesn't mean that climate change is or is not happening: Scotland is a tiny country surrounded by water, so the weather here tends to be unusual. In Edinburgh, for example, it will never snow in Leith but you go up to the Braids (maybe ten miles away), and there will be six foot deep drifts. Because the country is so small and so much is close to the coast, the weather is unusual.
  - pessimizer 4y ago
    > It hasn't. That is what I am saying. So you're saying that you think that they are lying, and falsifying weather information? Do you think they came up with this plan 300 years ago when they started recording? This is a report about a thing that is happening. You can see it as a sign of something else, you can see it as not necessarily a sign of something else. To refuse to see it at all, however, is concerning.
    - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
      I am glad you are concerned about me. You come across as a very sensitive person, suggesting (for some reason that is unclear to me, but presumably clear to a very intuitive person like yourself) that I believe there is a 300-yr old conspiracy theory to falsify weather "information"? I don't think I actually mentioned anything about the article, I mentioned no views about climate change at all, no-one asked. All I pointed out was that the guy saying Scotland was suddenly "snow-free" had obviously not been to Scotland. Because it doesn't actually snow here very often, people just think it does. Take a deep breath. Not everything is an anti-climate change conspiracy.
  - tenthirtyam 4y ago
    Could it be the Thames-freezing-over event was part of the "little ice age"? i.e. a blip in an otherwise (at the time) more stable climate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
    - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
      Yes, it was part of the Little Ice Age. People actually used to skate and hold markets on the Thames, it was frozen solid (the last such market was held in the early 19th century, and the last full freeze was in the early 1960s). Thoroughly confusing for climate-change deniers ofc (and climate-change truthers it seems). But, as I said, it really stopped happening in the mid-19th century.
  - NomDePlum 4y ago
- bumblebritches5 4y ago
titzer 4y ago
What if I told you that people suck at statistics and that temperatures have this weird thing called "variance"--meaning the average can increase and yet you still get outliers that are memorable, in both directions, and thus your cognitive biases don't give you an accurate picture of change?
- christophilus 4y ago
  I’d tell you that you should read a book called “How to Win Friends and Influence People” so that you could make your important point in a way that would possibly be received, rather than with an arrogant sarcasm that has the opposite effect.
- skippyboxedhero 4y ago
  And what if I told you that I studied statistics at university (my UG is in economic history) and that your cognitive bias about the statistics knowledge of people you don't know isn't interesting to anyone but you. If you read more closely (perhaps spend less time reading statistics textbooks, and more time working on your comprehension), you will also notice that I mentioned specifically that there has been no noticeable change in frequency over the time that I lived here. You may think you are an expert on stats and cognitive biases of people you have never met...are you also an expert on the local weather conditions of central Scotland? My guy, no-one asked, next time you are thinking about doing this, stop. Write it down in your feelings journal, your views are significantly less interesting than you think.
avgcorrection 4y ago
Of course Scotland has a mild climate in places where people live, probably comparable to coastal Norway. However, the article discusses Scotland being snow-free even in the mountains where it is rare that the snow melts all the way.
- skippyboxedhero 4y ago
  Right, and my issue is that people are exceedingly eager to read their own opinions into random events. This man goes up a hill and looks around for snow, apparently they have been doing this for 300 years...are you aware that the UK doesn't have weather statistics that old? I would think that the evidence for climate change is reasonably strong given the statistics showing temperatures are changing and the science explaining how this is happening...unfortunately, there is a large contingent of humanity who insist on reading climate change in every event. I have a guy, presumably from the US, who is informing me with great authority about what the weather is like near my house...okay, can't believe I am such a dirty climate change denier for observing that this guy's totally unscientific musings aren't useful (if you didn't know the BBC churns out stories like this all day, every day...man falls over? Climate change. Man coughs loudly in doctor's surgery? Climate change again).
photochemsyn 4y ago
It's not 'one thing', it's a series of measurements over time. > "Since the late 1970's there has been a significant reduction in the average number of days with snow lying, based on a sample of climatological stations at altitudes between 100m and 400m. The average rate of change has been 12 days per decade, which has been associated with changes in mean temperature during the winter months. The average number of days with snow lying across Scotland as a whole during the winter (November to April) is reduced by 9 days for every 1.0oC increase in mean temperature." That's from a paper published in 2000, which is useful to look at because it makes projections for avg time periods (30-yr means) centered on 2020, 2050, and 2080. These projections from 2000 are kind of interesting. We don't seem to be in the absolute worst-case projection (current snow loss in the Alps appears to be 77%, not 100%, for example [1]): > "Whetton et al. (1996) have used GCM’s to simulate changes in snow cover in the Australian Alps using a mass balance approach (snowfall less ablation). They conclude that in a worst-case scenario, all snow will have disappeared from the Alps by the 2020’s. Barringer (1996) translates snow cover into altitude of snowlines which, under a best case scenario, retreat upwards at the rate of 10m per decade, rising to 52m per decade in a worst case scenario. Hantel et al. (2000) translate incremental temperature changes into numbers of snow days which, at lower altitudes, would mean a reduction of 31 days in winter and 42 days in spring for a temperature increase of 1oC." [0] CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING PATTERNS OF SNOWFALL IN SCOTLAND J Harrison, S Winterbottom - 2000 [1] https://news.yahoo.com/alps-getting-greener-thats-not-184713146.html https://news.yahoo.com/alps-getting-greener-thats-not-184713... What (if anything) to do about this reality is a matter of debate, but there's no mistake that steady global warming is taking place, fairly in line with projections dating back several decades at least.
NomDePlum 4y ago
I have lived in Scotland over 50 years being born here. There has been a noticeable change in climate over that time period which would make me more likely to agree with the data being presented here is meaningful.
2muchcoffeeman 4y ago
>Attributing one thing to climate change is difficult. This title is pretty terrible when you consider the article. The Sphinx, in the Cairngorms, which is historically the longest-lasting patch of snow in the UK, has melted. The Sphinx, on remote Braeriach, a 1,296m (4,252ft) Munro, has melted away more frequently in the last 18 years. According to records, it previously melted fully in 1933, 1959, 1996, 2003, 2006, 2017, 2018, 2021 and now 2022. Before 1933, it is thought to have last melted completely in the 1700s. The Scottish Mountaineering Club began noting the fortunes of the patch in the 1840s and more recently scientists and ecologists have gathered information. It's really about the longest lasting patch of snow in Scotland melting. I guess that is where they get "Scotland is snow free". And the mountaineering club has been making observations since 1840. So this is really around 180 years of observations. All the melts since they started observations occurred in the last 89 years and the period between melts has been getting shorter and shorter. If that's not data, what is it?

pjc50 4y ago

"The beast from the east"? I remember that, for a few days shops weren't being supplied with fresh food. > Attributing one thing to climate change is difficult. Yes. A pattern of things, on the other hand ...

bequanna 4y ago
> Yes. A pattern of things, on the other hand ... Is it a real pattern? Or maybe just a simple feedback loop caused by click-bait journalism and confirmation bias.

iso1631 4y ago

One mild winter is not sign of climate change, and one harsh winter is not sign of climate change. However when a snow free Scotland changes from being once every 50 years to every other year, that's a strong correlation with climate change.

skippyboxedhero 4y ago
It hasn't. That is what I am saying. People think it snows all the time here, it doesn't. I have lived here for 20 years, my parents lived here for decades before, the weather is largely the same (the UK has been getting warmer for about a century and a half, so the Thames used to freeze over but that stopped a long time before climate change started). This doesn't mean that climate change is or is not happening: Scotland is a tiny country surrounded by water, so the weather here tends to be unusual. In Edinburgh, for example, it will never snow in Leith but you go up to the Braids (maybe ten miles away), and there will be six foot deep drifts. Because the country is so small and so much is close to the coast, the weather is unusual.
- pessimizer 4y ago
  > It hasn't. That is what I am saying. So you're saying that you think that they are lying, and falsifying weather information? Do you think they came up with this plan 300 years ago when they started recording? This is a report about a thing that is happening. You can see it as a sign of something else, you can see it as not necessarily a sign of something else. To refuse to see it at all, however, is concerning.
  - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
    I am glad you are concerned about me. You come across as a very sensitive person, suggesting (for some reason that is unclear to me, but presumably clear to a very intuitive person like yourself) that I believe there is a 300-yr old conspiracy theory to falsify weather "information"? I don't think I actually mentioned anything about the article, I mentioned no views about climate change at all, no-one asked. All I pointed out was that the guy saying Scotland was suddenly "snow-free" had obviously not been to Scotland. Because it doesn't actually snow here very often, people just think it does. Take a deep breath. Not everything is an anti-climate change conspiracy.
- tenthirtyam 4y ago
  Could it be the Thames-freezing-over event was part of the "little ice age"? i.e. a blip in an otherwise (at the time) more stable climate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
  - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
    Yes, it was part of the Little Ice Age. People actually used to skate and hold markets on the Thames, it was frozen solid (the last such market was held in the early 19th century, and the last full freeze was in the early 1960s). Thoroughly confusing for climate-change deniers ofc (and climate-change truthers it seems). But, as I said, it really stopped happening in the mid-19th century.
- NomDePlum 4y ago
bumblebritches5 4y ago

titzer 4y ago

What if I told you that people suck at statistics and that temperatures have this weird thing called "variance"--meaning the average can increase and yet you still get outliers that are memorable, in both directions, and thus your cognitive biases don't give you an accurate picture of change?

christophilus 4y ago
I’d tell you that you should read a book called “How to Win Friends and Influence People” so that you could make your important point in a way that would possibly be received, rather than with an arrogant sarcasm that has the opposite effect.
skippyboxedhero 4y ago
And what if I told you that I studied statistics at university (my UG is in economic history) and that your cognitive bias about the statistics knowledge of people you don't know isn't interesting to anyone but you. If you read more closely (perhaps spend less time reading statistics textbooks, and more time working on your comprehension), you will also notice that I mentioned specifically that there has been no noticeable change in frequency over the time that I lived here. You may think you are an expert on stats and cognitive biases of people you have never met...are you also an expert on the local weather conditions of central Scotland? My guy, no-one asked, next time you are thinking about doing this, stop. Write it down in your feelings journal, your views are significantly less interesting than you think.

avgcorrection 4y ago

Of course Scotland has a mild climate in places where people live, probably comparable to coastal Norway. However, the article discusses Scotland being snow-free even in the mountains where it is rare that the snow melts all the way.

skippyboxedhero 4y ago
Right, and my issue is that people are exceedingly eager to read their own opinions into random events. This man goes up a hill and looks around for snow, apparently they have been doing this for 300 years...are you aware that the UK doesn't have weather statistics that old? I would think that the evidence for climate change is reasonably strong given the statistics showing temperatures are changing and the science explaining how this is happening...unfortunately, there is a large contingent of humanity who insist on reading climate change in every event. I have a guy, presumably from the US, who is informing me with great authority about what the weather is like near my house...okay, can't believe I am such a dirty climate change denier for observing that this guy's totally unscientific musings aren't useful (if you didn't know the BBC churns out stories like this all day, every day...man falls over? Climate change. Man coughs loudly in doctor's surgery? Climate change again).

photochemsyn 4y ago

It's not 'one thing', it's a series of measurements over time. > "Since the late 1970's there has been a significant reduction in the average number of days with snow lying, based on a sample of climatological stations at altitudes between 100m and 400m. The average rate of change has been 12 days per decade, which has been associated with changes in mean temperature during the winter months. The average number of days with snow lying across Scotland as a whole during the winter (November to April) is reduced by 9 days for every 1.0oC increase in mean temperature." That's from a paper published in 2000, which is useful to look at because it makes projections for avg time periods (30-yr means) centered on 2020, 2050, and 2080. These projections from 2000 are kind of interesting. We don't seem to be in the absolute worst-case projection (current snow loss in the Alps appears to be 77%, not 100%, for example [1]): > "Whetton et al. (1996) have used GCM’s to simulate changes in snow cover in the Australian Alps using a mass balance approach (snowfall less ablation). They conclude that in a worst-case scenario, all snow will have disappeared from the Alps by the 2020’s. Barringer (1996) translates snow cover into altitude of snowlines which, under a best case scenario, retreat upwards at the rate of 10m per decade, rising to 52m per decade in a worst case scenario. Hantel et al. (2000) translate incremental temperature changes into numbers of snow days which, at lower altitudes, would mean a reduction of 31 days in winter and 42 days in spring for a temperature increase of 1oC." [0] CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING PATTERNS OF SNOWFALL IN SCOTLAND J Harrison, S Winterbottom - 2000 [1] https://news.yahoo.com/alps-getting-greener-thats-not-184713146.html https://news.yahoo.com/alps-getting-greener-thats-not-184713... What (if anything) to do about this reality is a matter of debate, but there's no mistake that steady global warming is taking place, fairly in line with projections dating back several decades at least.

NomDePlum 4y ago

I have lived in Scotland over 50 years being born here. There has been a noticeable change in climate over that time period which would make me more likely to agree with the data being presented here is meaningful.

2muchcoffeeman 4y ago

>Attributing one thing to climate change is difficult. This title is pretty terrible when you consider the article. The Sphinx, in the Cairngorms, which is historically the longest-lasting patch of snow in the UK, has melted. The Sphinx, on remote Braeriach, a 1,296m (4,252ft) Munro, has melted away more frequently in the last 18 years. According to records, it previously melted fully in 1933, 1959, 1996, 2003, 2006, 2017, 2018, 2021 and now 2022. Before 1933, it is thought to have last melted completely in the 1700s. The Scottish Mountaineering Club began noting the fortunes of the patch in the 1840s and more recently scientists and ecologists have gathered information. It's really about the longest lasting patch of snow in Scotland melting. I guess that is where they get "Scotland is snow free". And the mountaineering club has been making observations since 1840. So this is really around 180 years of observations. All the melts since they started observations occurred in the last 89 years and the period between melts has been getting shorter and shorter. If that's not data, what is it?