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"markets will most likely recover over the long term, historically speaking" tell that to the Nikkei index. At this point you'll have been waiting 40 years fo
by ekelsen 4y ago
"markets will most likely recover over the long term, historically speaking"
tell that to the Nikkei index. At this point you'll have been waiting 40 years for the recovery.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical...
- kqr 4y agoA different take on the same thing: the best models we have of the risk-free returns of equity markets are unbiased random walks, or martingales. Whatever value the index is at now is the best guess at what value it will be in the future, at least when absolute polynomial loss is the error function.
- mypastself 4y agoDoes this statement hold true when accounting for total returns, including dividends?
- cloudking 4y agoFair point, my comment is centered around the US markets, I should have clarified that.
- postsantum 4y agoSo.. an interpolation based on a sample size of 1
- thevagrant 4y agoIt's down to strategy. If you bought once, all in 1990 and did nothing and waited, then maybe that's a problem.
- UncleMeat 4y agoThis is something of "the exception that proves the rule." Literally everybody brings up this specific index as the example. And further, it saw a ridiculous growth prior to its collapse. A regular investor still made out like a bandit. The only people who got crushed were hypothetical investors who put all of their money in right at the top.