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> An ARM based design would make sense, except unlike Apple they'd have to buy a license. License is the least of it. Apple released their first custom chip i

> An ARM based design would make sense, except unlike Apple they'd have to buy a license. License is the least of it. Apple released their first custom chip in 2013. And spent several years before that designing it. So, it took Apple up to 15 years to get to where they are now with M1. Even if AMD and Intel start now, and are twice as fast at developing new CPUs, they will need 6-7 years to reach parity with 2022 Apple in... 2028

mkl 4y ago
That doesn't make sense to me. Apple was starting from scratch (well, from PA Semi, which made Power not ARM), but Intel and AMD have been designing high-performance CPUs for decades, and already changed architecture (to AMD64) successfully. On top of that, both have experience with ARM processors.
- dmitriid 4y ago
  It takes around 4 to 6 years to design a new processor even if you have experience with it. A new competitive processor in an area where all you have is "some experience"... Well, I wouldn't hold my breath. If (and that's a big if) AMD and Intel started looking into ARM seriously after Apple unveiled M1, I wouldn't expect any ARM processor out of them earlier than 2025-2026. Funnily enough I'd expect Amazon to perform better in this space (Graviton has been in deployment since 2019, three years ago, and is now in its third iteration).
  - fmajid 4y ago
    I would only take it seriously if Intel tasked this to its scrappy Israeli R&D, which saved the company from Itanic and Netburst irrelevance.
  - formerly_proven 4y ago
    AMD had K12 (Zen for AArch64)
    - dmitriid 4y ago
      Never released. They did have an Opteron A1100 which was 3 years later than its orginal announcement date (released in 2017, announced for 2014)... and somehow I couldn't even find proper overview of its performance. So AMD hasn't had much in the ARM department in the past 5-7 years.
      - snvzz 4y ago
        But we don't know what they have unless they announce it. My guess is that they kept an ARM Zen frontend working, internally. And they probably have a RISC-V frontend now, alongside many other projects. They are large enough to do so. When they perceive they can launch a successful product, they do so. Otherwise, we never know of these efforts.
bumblebritches5 4y ago

mkl 4y ago

That doesn't make sense to me. Apple was starting from scratch (well, from PA Semi, which made Power not ARM), but Intel and AMD have been designing high-performance CPUs for decades, and already changed architecture (to AMD64) successfully. On top of that, both have experience with ARM processors.

dmitriid 4y ago
It takes around 4 to 6 years to design a new processor even if you have experience with it. A new competitive processor in an area where all you have is "some experience"... Well, I wouldn't hold my breath. If (and that's a big if) AMD and Intel started looking into ARM seriously after Apple unveiled M1, I wouldn't expect any ARM processor out of them earlier than 2025-2026. Funnily enough I'd expect Amazon to perform better in this space (Graviton has been in deployment since 2019, three years ago, and is now in its third iteration).
- fmajid 4y ago
  I would only take it seriously if Intel tasked this to its scrappy Israeli R&D, which saved the company from Itanic and Netburst irrelevance.
- formerly_proven 4y ago
  AMD had K12 (Zen for AArch64)
  - dmitriid 4y ago
    Never released. They did have an Opteron A1100 which was 3 years later than its orginal announcement date (released in 2017, announced for 2014)... and somehow I couldn't even find proper overview of its performance. So AMD hasn't had much in the ARM department in the past 5-7 years.
    - snvzz 4y ago
      But we don't know what they have unless they announce it. My guess is that they kept an ARM Zen frontend working, internally. And they probably have a RISC-V frontend now, alongside many other projects. They are large enough to do so. When they perceive they can launch a successful product, they do so. Otherwise, we never know of these efforts.

bumblebritches5 4y ago