I have always been sceptical about AI; I majored in it in the AI winter of the 90s. But now that I am back to it in the past years, I am getting more positive.

I have always been sceptical about AI; I majored in it in the AI winter of the 90s. But now that I am back to it in the past years, I am getting more positive. This now feels not a case of being happy but a case of that this will happen anyway, like so many progress just happened and trampled over jobs and did create other jobs and still people shortage. Things like copilot are now not far from replacing bad programmers; I myself have 100s of lines written a day, in my style, by copilot. I know what prompts work and that’s the hard part, but it is really impressive what it comes up with and correctly ‘guesses’. Politically, keeping the gains of this not flowing to a few companies or individuals should be a priority; as has been proven (and been said by Carmack), AI is trivial after invention and will be cloned by open source in days/weeks; then trained sets is key to making sure we all benefit. This needs to remain the case to make sure society works imho. But yeah, soon is 10 years for many things I feel now and 100+ (infinite) years for others. I observe that things that are copilot for me now, are things that millions of programmers cannot even come up with and those need to do something else. And that’s close. The talented people is further away because of ‘understanding’; statistical pattern matching is maybe (we don’t know) something different than understanding; when we manage to use temporal flow and so, conversational prompts, which a lot of people are researching and developing now, it will get really interesting. So far it seems inevitable… until the next AI winter.