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I have friends in Russia who actually believe this. They think Russia is winning and the West is in utter chaos, and will soon fall. I saw advertisements on Rus

I have friends in Russia who actually believe this. They think Russia is winning and the West is in utter chaos, and will soon fall. I saw advertisements on Russian TV showing how Europe is freezing and so on. Meanwhile one fifth of Russian households doesn't even have a toilet. They have a completely different mindset.

shadowgovt 4y ago
As with any war, propaganda is strong. Situated in the United States where I am, I have no doubt Ukraine is doing a bit worse than I think they are, and Russia is doing a bit better. But the thing that nobody can hide behind the propaganda is the fact that the war is still ongoing. Relative to projections before the invasion began, the fact that there is still war in progress is itself, alone, a glaring and unmaskable indicator that this did not go according to plan.
jdthedisciple 4y ago
You don't even sound like you have any idea what's going on inside the EU atm. Do you know that in Italy already a right-wing party just got elected into government? Do you have any idea about rising sympathy for the right-wing AfD in Germany? Do you have any idea about rising energy prices and how they are about to mass destroy businesses? How people are beginning to struggle paying for their energy bills? This oblivious attitude to what's going on is exactly going to be the reason for the downfall of the EU. Why do I never see these types of people address the facts and numbers? All I see is mockery and complete oblivion to reality. Probably the same thing the US did in Afghanistan up until the moment they suddenly had to gtfo.
- shadowgovt 4y ago
  Nah. People knew holding Afghanistan was a cluster from day 1. It's the "graveyard of empires." Just took a long time to get a leader with the guts to do the needful and admit the country couldn't be remote-controlled. National pride is a hell of a thing. Blinds people to reason.
- hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
  I live in the very center of Europe and fortunately not much changed for me - yes, the prices are slightly higher, and electricity and gas quite a bit, but we knew about it from the moment Putin started the war and fortunately it's manageable. Yes, businesses depending on huge energy consumption will need to find a way to deal with it, and it's something that could be good for us in the long run. Just like COVID increased digital transformation, the war accelerated our plans to make us less dependent on fossil fuels.
  - jdthedisciple 4y ago
    > make us less dependent on fossil fuels Sounds good on paper except that it's a complete and absolute pipe dream in reality. Even without the war that transition would've taken at least half a decade if not a decade. Believing that this can now somehow be magically achieved even faster than originally planned despite what's going on is basically the definition of wishful thinking. Also, I have no idea how you live, but I wouldn't be surprised if you have but yourself to feed, live in a small apartment and happen to be among the few with a good income. That's unfortunately not very representative of your average family household.
    - hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
      I think you are being optimistic - I don't believe the transition can happen in a decade, even two seems wishful thinking. But it's about something else: about making sure everybody in our society understands the transition is necessary and they are willing to adapt. This wasn't obvious before the war, with many people or even whole societies preferring the old comfy status quo. As for myself, I have a quite large family, and of course as all human beings we have worries about the future, but nothing really serious happened to us, and our lives are more or less as before. My electricity bill rose by 30% but it's still ridiculously small. I see no any signs of Europe falling despite of what Russian media are actively trying to tell their viewers. Maybe it's to stop emigration, but the ones likely to migrate (=young & talented) know better already. Many of them are staying only because they don't want to leave their older parents.

shadowgovt 4y ago

As with any war, propaganda is strong. Situated in the United States where I am, I have no doubt Ukraine is doing a bit worse than I think they are, and Russia is doing a bit better. But the thing that nobody can hide behind the propaganda is the fact that the war is still ongoing. Relative to projections before the invasion began, the fact that there is still war in progress is itself, alone, a glaring and unmaskable indicator that this did not go according to plan.

jdthedisciple 4y ago

You don't even sound like you have any idea what's going on inside the EU atm. Do you know that in Italy already a right-wing party just got elected into government? Do you have any idea about rising sympathy for the right-wing AfD in Germany? Do you have any idea about rising energy prices and how they are about to mass destroy businesses? How people are beginning to struggle paying for their energy bills? This oblivious attitude to what's going on is exactly going to be the reason for the downfall of the EU. Why do I never see these types of people address the facts and numbers? All I see is mockery and complete oblivion to reality. Probably the same thing the US did in Afghanistan up until the moment they suddenly had to gtfo.

shadowgovt 4y ago
Nah. People knew holding Afghanistan was a cluster from day 1. It's the "graveyard of empires." Just took a long time to get a leader with the guts to do the needful and admit the country couldn't be remote-controlled. National pride is a hell of a thing. Blinds people to reason.
hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
I live in the very center of Europe and fortunately not much changed for me - yes, the prices are slightly higher, and electricity and gas quite a bit, but we knew about it from the moment Putin started the war and fortunately it's manageable. Yes, businesses depending on huge energy consumption will need to find a way to deal with it, and it's something that could be good for us in the long run. Just like COVID increased digital transformation, the war accelerated our plans to make us less dependent on fossil fuels.
- jdthedisciple 4y ago
  > make us less dependent on fossil fuels Sounds good on paper except that it's a complete and absolute pipe dream in reality. Even without the war that transition would've taken at least half a decade if not a decade. Believing that this can now somehow be magically achieved even faster than originally planned despite what's going on is basically the definition of wishful thinking. Also, I have no idea how you live, but I wouldn't be surprised if you have but yourself to feed, live in a small apartment and happen to be among the few with a good income. That's unfortunately not very representative of your average family household.
  - hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
    I think you are being optimistic - I don't believe the transition can happen in a decade, even two seems wishful thinking. But it's about something else: about making sure everybody in our society understands the transition is necessary and they are willing to adapt. This wasn't obvious before the war, with many people or even whole societies preferring the old comfy status quo. As for myself, I have a quite large family, and of course as all human beings we have worries about the future, but nothing really serious happened to us, and our lives are more or less as before. My electricity bill rose by 30% but it's still ridiculously small. I see no any signs of Europe falling despite of what Russian media are actively trying to tell their viewers. Maybe it's to stop emigration, but the ones likely to migrate (=young & talented) know better already. Many of them are staying only because they don't want to leave their older parents.