As I said, I really don't have much insight into virology, but I also get a lot of what I'd classify as "god of the gaps"[0] type feelings when people start tal

As I said, I really don't have much insight into virology, but I also get a lot of what I'd classify as "god of the gaps"[0] type feelings when people start talking about gaps in the documented evolutionary record of the virus. I suspect there was not much interest in studying the evolution of corona viruses in raccoon dogs of the Wuhan region prior to 2020, so if there's a spotty history of all the variations that it went through, I'm not really surprised. > but I don't see why "there are different theories that could be glossed as 'lab leak'" is any sort of evidence that the total probability of all the theories that could be glossed as such is lower (relative to the situation where there is exactly one theory) I didn't say that to mean that I think a spectrum of lab leak theories changes the odds of whether or not it is true; what I'm saying is that I don't know that there is a coherent story of what the "lab leak theory" is supposed to mean; I've seen many different ones. And without a single coherent theory, it just looks like anomaly hunting to me, which is a feature of grand conspiracy theories. And yes, without a singular theory of a lab leak, I don't understand the goals of those pushing them, but seeking a coherent, understandable explanation for complex and capricious natural phenomena seems like a natural human feature, and perhaps an adaptation to allow us to cognitively process the world around us; it also seems to me like the basis for religion. > I mean, I could say the same thing of the converse - it seems like most people on the natural origin side just want it to be false for some reason; I certainly see some of this, and some of it is I'm sure a backfire response to the people pushing the lab leak thing, or perhaps the wilder versions of the lab leak theory. But for myself, the natural origin just seems... natural. Viruses have existed since presumably the dawn of life and been with us and adapted along with us since long before we were homo sapiens, and this is most likely just another one. As for what would I consider sufficient evidence of a lab leak? Again I don't know much about viruses, so as far as genomic/molecular analysis, a group of well respected authorities in the field who had reason to believe of an artificial tampering would be a nice start, but that will always be tough for me to interrogate and understand, and I have a hard time believing it could be truly definitive. Much better would be human evidence - notes from the lab, scientists espousing their role in the leak, etc... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_of_the_gaps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_of_the_gaps