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Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
- leereeves 4y agoFire is a natural part of the forest lifecycle. We shouldn't try to end it, we should build our housing and infrastructure to minimize the effects of fire on us.
- btilly 4y agoThere are fires, and there are megafires. They are NOT the same. The Western landscapes are evolved for regular normal fires. But decades of fire suppression have left us with a massive amount of fuel, so now fires come with a heat and size that the landscape is not evolved to handle. So, for example, trees with thick bark designed to survive fires, instead succumb to the intense heat and burn. Yes, we need to get back to having regular fires. But we also need to end the artificially created danger of megafires.
- ROTMetro 4y agoI remember when we had the huge wildfires in the Santa Cruz mountains in the 80s, and they said if they did the same practices afterwards as they had prior, there would be similar fires in 40 years. I don't live there anymore, but what are the fire prospects in the Santa Cruz mountains? It's about exactly the time those forestry guys said fires would become a thing again as I am pretty sure nothing was changed, and that even worse more risky housing was added.
- billclerico 4y agoThere was an enormous & destructive lightning fire in the Santa Cruz mountains in 2020 called the CZU complex: https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/08/16/two-years-later-czu-fire-recovery-continues-in-santa-cruz-mountains/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/08/16/two-years-later-czu-f...
- abathur 4y agoI was looking at the California Wildfire History Map (https://projects.capradio.org/california-fire-history/#9.62/37.1149/-122.2958 https://projects.capradio.org/california-fire-history/#9.62/...) a while back and remember noting that the CZU fire was the first recorded burn for most of the affected area. I am not sure how complete the map is, but I suspect that the GP means the fires (such as the 1985 Lexington fire) further east mapped in red? Of those, I think I only see two meaningfully overlapped by newer fires (2009 and 2016 Loma fires overlapping 1985 Lexington, 2020 Park within the footprint of the 1985 Finley fire). Edit: looks like the Finley/Park fires are technically just east of the mountain range, at least per http://www.scmbc.org/map-of-bioregion http://www.scmbc.org/map-of-bioregion.
- toss1 4y agoNO First, we are not the only players here, and second, the more care we take to keep the natural cycle as normal as possible, the better the natural system will take care of us. Megafires are an entirely different kind of fire, and merely expecting and avoiding them is insufficient. Managing the forest a little bit, and using controlled fires both almost eliminates the danger of megafires, and reduces the damage of fires on the ecosystem and on the human systems. Just one paragraph in the article encapsulates that nicely. Please re-think your human-centric approach to problems with nature. At least read this one paragraph. >>In Southern Oregon in 2021, when the massive Bootleg Fire reached a 30,000-acre nature preserve managed by the Nature Conservancy, flames were shooting 200 feet in the air. But when the fire got to an area that had been carefully managed, it suddenly changed. The flames dropped down and moved more slowly. For years, researchers in the area had been testing different “treatments” for the forest, thinning out trees in some areas and conducting prescribed burns. When the fire came through, it demonstrated what worked: In photos taken a few months after the fire, trees were still alive in the area that had been both thinned and treated with controlled burns. Across a road, in an untreated area, nearly everything had burned. (When a fire is so extreme, it can also sterilize the soil in some cases, making it hard for any new trees to grow back.)
- DoingIsLearning 4y ago> Fire is a natural part of the forest lifecycle. Apart from ecosystems with Eucalyptus trees, I can't think of another environment where fire is a natural part of the forest lifecycle.
- PeterStuer 4y agoI guess it takes a lifetime of wisdom to truly realize companies will never 'end' anything, as their whole existence depends on the thing happening at least enough to keep selling the cure.
- adamrezich 4y agowait so you're telling me that every political organization that claims to be fighting against e.g. discrimination and inequality is actually wholly dependent on the existence of e.g. discrimination and inequality in order to continue functioning, such that they'll never put an end to the thing that gives them reason to exist in the first place?
- jjulius 4y agoOP said: >I guess it takes a lifetime of wisdom to truly realize companies will never 'end' anything... You said: >wait so you're telling me that every political organization... A company is fundamentally different from a political organization, especially in the context of this conversation.
- adamrezich 4y agohow so? do political organizations differ from corporations in that they somehow don't have an inherent need to perpetuate their own existence, so as to keep people employed?
- TOGoS 4y agoThey are somewhat analogous, though. Not to mention intertwined. What keeps our dominant political parties running? Money from big business. Where do they get their money? By selling stuff. All the better for their profits if they can externalize costs. Which the politicians they bought will be reluctant to do anything about.
- theptip 4y agoThis is a shallow take. Even on its face it’s wrong. Ending mega-fires would be an ongoing expenditure, since you constantly monitor and manage smaller fires to achieve that. Plenty of juicy government dollars to sustain vendors in that space indefinitely.
- wongarsu 4y agoI think the article (unintentionally) makes a better argument that these companies are trying to create megafires? It presents a bunch of startups, most about detecting forest fires earlier, coordinating faster fire department responses, preventing ignition sources, etc. Then it goes on to explain how Megafires are largely caused by a buildup of fuel because we extinguish every small fire and prevented people from doing what we now call prescribed burns. Of course any tool can be used for good or evil, but aren't most of the described startups more likely to make the situation worse, giving people more tools to prevent fires until so much fuel builds up that an uncontrollable fire develops?
- billclerico 4y agoMost experts agree that 3 things are required to end megafires: Landscape management, community resilience and fast & aggressive suppression. It's a layered approach - similar to infosec models. No one layer is an effective solution. Some of the examples in the article are focused on suppression (since that is a bit easier to grasp) - but there are some really exciting examples that exist outside of that. BurnBot, for example, is a robotic device that helps make fuel management more efficient. Overstory uses satellite imagery to help utilities prioritize line trimming and avoid ignitions. Disclaimer: I am mentioned in the article as a Firetech investor
- mistrial9 4y agofiretech has been heavy on the 'suppression' here in California. Its step-children include aggressive surveillance, controlling the movement of people whether they own property or not, increase in fines and legal entanglements for those in fire-prone areas, and I would argue a fertile breeding ground for secretive behind-closed-doors deals regarding public information and public budgets. ref: https://www.amazon.com/Scorched-Worth-Destruction-Government-Corruption/dp/159403981X/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8 https://www.amazon.com/Scorched-Worth-Destruction-Government... so what to do? Please support and develop public information within the spirit of the Law. California and the US has 'default to public' government data for hundreds of relevant layers. Please do not support "my keys, my data" portal gatekeeping by spatial information handlers for public data. Be explicit about the difference between 'public by default' layers and commercial value added layers. Please do not encourage "onboard AI for drones" without checks and balances for the content and filtering. Please build clear bounds between civilian matters and uniformed services matters -- "we are the Army Corps and we have this handled; please move along" is not an acceptable stance in 2022. The tragic and catastrophic fires in the Western USA and elsewhere in the past five years are a very large challenge. Let's combine forces and synergize, defeat gatekeeping that is so common in government contracting, and 'secret by default' information handling (e.g. 30x30) so common in the armed forces. Together we are stronger.
- soperj 4y agoAre they advocating for intentional burns? Because if not they're doing it wrong.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- criddell 4y agoYes they are. It's a good article and not very long. If you are interested in this stuff I recommend reading it.
- ElijahLynn 4y agoYes, the article does advocate for intentional burns and is educational to the public about it.
- ElijahLynn 4y agoSuch a beautiful article and really covers the root of the issue. I know we skim a lot of articles but this one really deserves to be read in full. The issue being that natural fires have been suppressed for so long that when they do burn there is so much fuel available that they get way hotter than is natural and end up sterilizing the soil so nothing grows for years. Prescribed burns and thinning are the answer to prevention. Let nature happen, and even encourage it so it can be controlled.
- 0xbadcafebee 4y agoThe problem is that we don't allow stuff to burn naturally, so the answer is we should mess with nature even more. Amazing how humans just can't let anything alone. In 100 years the whole planet will just be one giant bonsai.
- falcolas 4y agoWe often can't, without displacing humans and damaging property.
- cbtacy 4y agoSo you're saying that protecting property is more important than a sensible fire policy?
- falcolas 4y agoI’m saying that the solution wont be a simple one dimensional solution that makes for a great soundbite. Because damage to private property does need to be considered in any governmental policy.
- eagsalazar2 4y agoIf in 100 years the earth is a giant bonsai... wow, that sounds like a pretty amazing outcome given the other very likely alternatives. Honestly, it seems pretty unlikely that given the enormous human population and our incredible appetite to consume, that the earth will survive in any state we'd be happy with, without some pretty aggressive management.
- billclerico 4y agoOne thing I find frustrating in the discussion of wildfire is that it frequently dumbs down to one thing vs another, usually "We must treat the landscape with thinning and prescribed fire" vs "We need better firefighting resources and equipment". This is a false choice and we need both. The principle of Defense in Depth in infosec is illustrative. No one would debate whether or not you need secure passwords vs role-based permissions. You obviously need both and they reinforce each other. The same is true in fire. To end megafires, we need: 1) Landscape Management 2) Community Resilience 3) Fast & aggressive suppression Better technology can help play a role at all three levels.
- hadlock 4y agoI'm curious, with such giant swathes of forest being burnt off annually, and large contiguous chunks being burnt up, leaving only smaller contiguous areas; 1) given the average size of a megafire, how many more megafires can happen (assuming regrowth to current fuel levels takes 50 years) 2) what is the largest megafire that could still happen, given the forested area unburnt for at least 50 years The chronicle has a map somewhere that lists all the wildfires that have happened in the last 30-40 years, at a casual glance it is looking like any forest areas that haven't burnt yet, are getting increasingly smaller. According to the USDA california has about 101 million acres of forest[1], and the august complex (2020) alone burnt 1 million acres, almost 1%, dixie fire was also almost 1%. The next 18 largest fires burnt another 5% (4.7%) [2]. Since 2001 We've burnt up 22% of all the forests in california [3] 7% in ~12 years seems like a lot, but it takes a long time to grow that much fuel, also the space in between those burnt spaces is going to be increasingly smaller and smaller, or at least so it would seem. [1] https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsm8_037652.htm https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsm8_037652.h... [2] https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/4jandlhh/top20_acres.pdf https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/4jandlhh/top20_acres.pdf [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_wildfires#Area_burned_per_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_wildfires#A...
- billclerico 4y agoI think it's a false assumption that when something burns in a high severity fire, it returns to a healthy state afterwards. Historically, natural fire was low severity because it was high frequency, burning through once a decade (or even more frequently). This left large trees and soil intact, and so dense regrowth was limited, since there was still shade. With high severity fire, two things can happen. Trees can be totally wiped out (called a stand-replacing fire) which causes extremely dense, brushy regrowth (prone to another high severity fire). Or in really bad conditions, the soil can be damage so no regrowth happens, causing strange moonscape-like forests that are completely dead. This affects watersheds, causes mudslides, etc. Neither is good. If we could burn large swaths of landscape with low severity fire, that would be a huge step in the right direction but is extremely difficult. We are treating only a small fraction of the acreage in that manner. Note: This varies from landscape to landscape but is directionally correct. For example, in some climates, stand-replacing fires are healthy and normal. But in most climates, bad.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- cbtacy 4y agoFor those who are (truly) interested in the topic, bothered to read this whole article, and want to know more - the seminal work on the subject is https://megafirebook.com/ https://megafirebook.com/
- Brusco_RF 4y agoThis is a peeve of mine that I see absolutely everywhere, none of our recent fires hold a candle (so to speak) to what was going on before humans started managing forests. Take a look at this chart from the UN[1], specifically pre-1960. I guarantee every chart of wildfires you'll see on a major news site will begin after 1960. Typically they want to push the narrative that climate change is causing wildfires when in fact wildfires have everything to do with forest management and nothing to do with climate change. They are of course also ignoring the fact that climate models predict a _wetter_ planet, not a drier one, if current trends continue. [1] https://www.fao.org/3/ai412e/ai412e09.jpg https://www.fao.org/3/ai412e/ai412e09.jpg
- cassepipe 4y agoWait, I thought most of the mega fires had been caused by un/badly maintained electrical infrastructure?
- bitxbitxbitcoin 4y agoBetteridge’s law of headlines…
- josefresco 4y agoBetter headline: These companies are trying to end megafires