This particular problem is easily solved with PERT charts [1] since making a baby is an atomic (blocking) task with time estimates ranging from 23 to 40 weeks.

This particular problem is easily solved with PERT charts [1] since making a baby is an atomic (blocking) task with time estimates ranging from 23 to 40 weeks. It can be combined with evidence-based scheduling[2] to collect historical data and then run Monte Carlo simulations. Of course, this is only useful at the initial stage of a new greenfield project. For me, the more useful part is the dependency graph between tasks (actually mini-projects). Estimates are for managers. And even then they can be multiplied by 3 and still be wrong - i.e. it's guesstimation. For general feature delivery work, a Shape Up[3] appetite (the amount of time we want to spend on a project, not an estimate) will work better. This is a fixed time budget - a variable scope. -- [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_... [2] https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2007/10/26/evidence-based-scheduling/ https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2007/10/26/evidence-based-sch... [3] https://basecamp.com/shapeup/1.2-chapter-03 https://basecamp.com/shapeup/1.2-chapter-03