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How many hours per day does a wind tower have to be working and during which lifetime to be able to pay up for all that steel, copper, aluminum, and a couple of

How many hours per day does a wind tower have to be working and during which lifetime to be able to pay up for all that steel, copper, aluminum, and a couple of rare earth metals, with their prices currently rising, and to offset the environmental impact of collecting and producing such materials? Is their a study that answers these questions?

spywaregorilla 4y ago
Typically less than one year. > to pay up for all that steel, copper, aluminum, and a couple of rare earth metals, This sentence obfuscates that we're just talking about the dollar price here. Which is easily calculated > offset the environmental impact of collecting and producing such materials? Harder to decisively calculate but seems unlikely to be an actual issue; and trivial when compared to the opportunity cost of generating the same energy with fossil fuels.
- JanSt 4y ago
  One year? With ROCE like that these things would be build everywhere and GE wouldn‘t downsize. Do you have a source for those numbers?
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    People are trying build green power like crazy. But it's not like you can just create a power generation facility anywhere you want. It has to hook into the transmission system. Because this is somewhat hard to organize, you need a certain scale of investment to do it. You also of course need an area with enough wind and demand for the energy. And land you can use. On shore wind is not as cost effective as solar or off shore wind either.
    - JanSt 4y ago
      While this is true I‘d still like to see a source. Those numbers are hard to believe. I‘d guess it would take at least 5 years to recover $-costs, which is still good
      - spywaregorilla 4y ago
        Apologies my answer was not well stated. The less than one year referred to the energy payback period. The capital recoup time with some back of the envelope math would probably be more like 10 years. No direct answers but you can back out some timelines from these https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-08/offshore_wind_market_report_2022.pdf https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-08/offshore_... https://weatherguardwind.com/how-much-does-wind-turbine-cost-worth-it/ https://weatherguardwind.com/how-much-does-wind-turbine-cost...
  - pwinnski 4y ago
    > GE wouldn't downsize. "GE’s renewables segment is going to generate between $15 billion and $16 billion in revenue this year, and onshore wind will make up the vast majority, roughly 70%." The returns are fine and growing, but GE is restructuring, and as the article points out, facing stiff competition and supply chain issues as well. Apparently they think losing 20% of their staff will help, and it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with how long it takes a new tower to become profitable.
  - bluGill 4y ago
    GE is not the only builder. Siemens for example is a big company that is building a lot of wind turbines.
  - anttisalmela 4y ago
    Finland is having a boom, 70% increase in built wind power last year and 70% this year so far, and I checked the projects completed or completing this year. Most are Vestas and Nordex, some GE, and few outliers (Siemens, Eventus, Cypress one project each).
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    > With ROCE like that There are several businesses in the chain. The manufacturer (GE), and sometimes component manufacturers, the project lead/developer, financiers, insurers, the engineering lead, and sometimes specialists, the subcontractors who do the physical work. And probably more. It's not uncommon for some of these to be financially stressed at times in PV. Not the financiers, though. Jérôme Guillet has a series on financing offshore wind[1]. On-shore is along the same lines; I'm sure you can adjust. 1.https://wfo-global.org/financing-offshore-wind-part-1/ https://wfo-global.org/financing-offshore-wind-part-1/
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
hannob 4y ago
If you are honestly interested in an answer (which I doubt) here are some studies linked for the carbon impact payback: https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is-the-carbon-payback-period-for-a-wind-turbine/ https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is... It's around 6 to 9 months.
- Ligma123 4y ago
  Thank you for the link.
pipeline_peak 4y ago
1000 flocks of seagulls edit: HN not being able to take a joke as usual.
- EFreethought 4y ago
  That joke was so bad, I ran. I ran so far away.
burkaman 4y ago
I don't know about the financial aspect, but there are many studies on the lifecycle emissions of a wind turbine that you can look up. How much CO2 a turbine offsets depends a lot on the grid it's connected to, so there's no single number for "time-to-carbon-negative". However, remember that all power plants have materials, and wind has the second-lowest lifecycle emissions of all renewable technologies (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/80580.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/80580.pdf), and of course is orders of magnitude better than non-renewables.
danans 4y ago
> How many hours per day does a wind tower have to be working You are asking about the capacity factor, but that's governed more by when wind is available, and is about 40-50% for onshore wind. > and during which lifetime to be able to pay up This is the payback time and there are several to consider. For the embodied greenhouse gases of the wind turbine, about 5.3 months on average: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6686152/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6686152/ > for all that steel, copper, aluminum, and a couple of rare earth metals About 6-7 years for the economic payback of capital costs (not counting the unaccounted avoided $ externalities of displaced fossil fuels). https://www.semprius.com/how-long-does-it-take-a-wind-turbine-to-pay-for-itself/ https://www.semprius.com/how-long-does-it-take-a-wind-turbin... Turbines last about 20 years.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  >> all that steel, copper, aluminum, and a couple of rare earth metals > About 6-7 years for the economic payback of capital costs (not counting the unaccounted avoided $ externalities of displaced fossil fuels). Presumably, all that steal and other material is still around in 20 years to be resold? How much do materials like these depreciate over 20 years? I'd guess in REAL terms not even 50%.
  - danans 4y ago
    > How much do materials like these depreciate over 20 years? I'd guess in REAL terms not even 50%. Historically (since 1975) metals have appreciated about 5x after inflation. Here is the 50 year price of scrap steel futures: https://www.investing.com/commodities/steel-scrap-historical-data https://www.investing.com/commodities/steel-scrap-historical... Stuff like composites for the turbine blades don't have a clear recycling/resale story yet, although there have be recent attempts to grind them down and turn them into other useful things: https://cen.acs.org/environment/recycling/companies-recycle-wind-turbine-blades/100/i27#:~:text=Fluffy%20fiberglass%20(left)%20recovered%20from,%2C%20and%20sporting%2Dgoods%20industries https://cen.acs.org/environment/recycling/companies-recycle-....
jseutter 4y ago
The payback period has been dropping over time and is now under a year, in some cases well under a year. This depends on many things including where it is placed, size of the tower and time of year. Links to articles that reference the studies: - https://www.windpowerengineering.com/wind-turbine-carbon-payback-times-shorter-than-expected-finds-new-study/ https://www.windpowerengineering.com/wind-turbine-carbon-pay... - https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is-the-carbon-payback-period-for-a-wind-turbine/ https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is... Wind can compete favorably with solar on price when you have the right conditions, which are both starting to beat traditional sources of power. It is hitting the point where you would select either wind or solar for price, when ignoring the desire for stable output. One current issue for wind power is what to do with the waste. The blades erode over time and need to be replaced, but mostly consists of fiberglass. It's not a huge problem, but each advancement in technology brings a new set of problems to be dealt with. Still, I'd rather deal with fiberglass than nuclear waste.
briffle 4y ago
I would imagine much less time than a huge power plant, with its much more steel, copper, aluminum, concrete, etc. Don't forget the extraction process for coal, gas, or clear cutting entire valleys to make damns. You are comparing wind power to 'nothing'. You need to compare it to the alternatives.
Karellen 4y ago
How long does a coal or natural gas plant have to be operating to offset the environmental impact of collecting and producing its construction materials? ...
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Not just the plant, in the case of fossil fuels' physical environmental impact. The wells, refining plant, and pipelines for gas, and the mines, railways, and ash disposal pits for coal. And the river intakes, detention ponds and so on needed for steam and cooling water.

spywaregorilla 4y ago

Typically less than one year. > to pay up for all that steel, copper, aluminum, and a couple of rare earth metals, This sentence obfuscates that we're just talking about the dollar price here. Which is easily calculated > offset the environmental impact of collecting and producing such materials? Harder to decisively calculate but seems unlikely to be an actual issue; and trivial when compared to the opportunity cost of generating the same energy with fossil fuels.

JanSt 4y ago
One year? With ROCE like that these things would be build everywhere and GE wouldn‘t downsize. Do you have a source for those numbers?
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  People are trying build green power like crazy. But it's not like you can just create a power generation facility anywhere you want. It has to hook into the transmission system. Because this is somewhat hard to organize, you need a certain scale of investment to do it. You also of course need an area with enough wind and demand for the energy. And land you can use. On shore wind is not as cost effective as solar or off shore wind either.
  - JanSt 4y ago
    While this is true I‘d still like to see a source. Those numbers are hard to believe. I‘d guess it would take at least 5 years to recover $-costs, which is still good
    - spywaregorilla 4y ago
      Apologies my answer was not well stated. The less than one year referred to the energy payback period. The capital recoup time with some back of the envelope math would probably be more like 10 years. No direct answers but you can back out some timelines from these https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-08/offshore_wind_market_report_2022.pdf https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-08/offshore_... https://weatherguardwind.com/how-much-does-wind-turbine-cost-worth-it/ https://weatherguardwind.com/how-much-does-wind-turbine-cost...
- pwinnski 4y ago
  > GE wouldn't downsize. "GE’s renewables segment is going to generate between $15 billion and $16 billion in revenue this year, and onshore wind will make up the vast majority, roughly 70%." The returns are fine and growing, but GE is restructuring, and as the article points out, facing stiff competition and supply chain issues as well. Apparently they think losing 20% of their staff will help, and it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with how long it takes a new tower to become profitable.
- bluGill 4y ago
  GE is not the only builder. Siemens for example is a big company that is building a lot of wind turbines.
- anttisalmela 4y ago
  Finland is having a boom, 70% increase in built wind power last year and 70% this year so far, and I checked the projects completed or completing this year. Most are Vestas and Nordex, some GE, and few outliers (Siemens, Eventus, Cypress one project each).
- tuatoru 4y ago
  > With ROCE like that There are several businesses in the chain. The manufacturer (GE), and sometimes component manufacturers, the project lead/developer, financiers, insurers, the engineering lead, and sometimes specialists, the subcontractors who do the physical work. And probably more. It's not uncommon for some of these to be financially stressed at times in PV. Not the financiers, though. Jérôme Guillet has a series on financing offshore wind[1]. On-shore is along the same lines; I'm sure you can adjust. 1.https://wfo-global.org/financing-offshore-wind-part-1/ https://wfo-global.org/financing-offshore-wind-part-1/

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

hannob 4y ago

If you are honestly interested in an answer (which I doubt) here are some studies linked for the carbon impact payback: https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is-the-carbon-payback-period-for-a-wind-turbine/ https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is... It's around 6 to 9 months.

Ligma123 4y ago
Thank you for the link.

pipeline_peak 4y ago

1000 flocks of seagulls edit: HN not being able to take a joke as usual.

EFreethought 4y ago
That joke was so bad, I ran. I ran so far away.

burkaman 4y ago

I don't know about the financial aspect, but there are many studies on the lifecycle emissions of a wind turbine that you can look up. How much CO2 a turbine offsets depends a lot on the grid it's connected to, so there's no single number for "time-to-carbon-negative". However, remember that all power plants have materials, and wind has the second-lowest lifecycle emissions of all renewable technologies (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/80580.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/80580.pdf), and of course is orders of magnitude better than non-renewables.

danans 4y ago

> How many hours per day does a wind tower have to be working You are asking about the capacity factor, but that's governed more by when wind is available, and is about 40-50% for onshore wind. > and during which lifetime to be able to pay up This is the payback time and there are several to consider. For the embodied greenhouse gases of the wind turbine, about 5.3 months on average: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6686152/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6686152/ > for all that steel, copper, aluminum, and a couple of rare earth metals About 6-7 years for the economic payback of capital costs (not counting the unaccounted avoided $ externalities of displaced fossil fuels). https://www.semprius.com/how-long-does-it-take-a-wind-turbine-to-pay-for-itself/ https://www.semprius.com/how-long-does-it-take-a-wind-turbin... Turbines last about 20 years.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
>> all that steel, copper, aluminum, and a couple of rare earth metals > About 6-7 years for the economic payback of capital costs (not counting the unaccounted avoided $ externalities of displaced fossil fuels). Presumably, all that steal and other material is still around in 20 years to be resold? How much do materials like these depreciate over 20 years? I'd guess in REAL terms not even 50%.
- danans 4y ago
  > How much do materials like these depreciate over 20 years? I'd guess in REAL terms not even 50%. Historically (since 1975) metals have appreciated about 5x after inflation. Here is the 50 year price of scrap steel futures: https://www.investing.com/commodities/steel-scrap-historical-data https://www.investing.com/commodities/steel-scrap-historical... Stuff like composites for the turbine blades don't have a clear recycling/resale story yet, although there have be recent attempts to grind them down and turn them into other useful things: https://cen.acs.org/environment/recycling/companies-recycle-wind-turbine-blades/100/i27#:~:text=Fluffy%20fiberglass%20(left)%20recovered%20from,%2C%20and%20sporting%2Dgoods%20industries https://cen.acs.org/environment/recycling/companies-recycle-....

jseutter 4y ago

The payback period has been dropping over time and is now under a year, in some cases well under a year. This depends on many things including where it is placed, size of the tower and time of year. Links to articles that reference the studies: - https://www.windpowerengineering.com/wind-turbine-carbon-payback-times-shorter-than-expected-finds-new-study/ https://www.windpowerengineering.com/wind-turbine-carbon-pay... - https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is-the-carbon-payback-period-for-a-wind-turbine/ https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is... Wind can compete favorably with solar on price when you have the right conditions, which are both starting to beat traditional sources of power. It is hitting the point where you would select either wind or solar for price, when ignoring the desire for stable output. One current issue for wind power is what to do with the waste. The blades erode over time and need to be replaced, but mostly consists of fiberglass. It's not a huge problem, but each advancement in technology brings a new set of problems to be dealt with. Still, I'd rather deal with fiberglass than nuclear waste.

briffle 4y ago

I would imagine much less time than a huge power plant, with its much more steel, copper, aluminum, concrete, etc. Don't forget the extraction process for coal, gas, or clear cutting entire valleys to make damns. You are comparing wind power to 'nothing'. You need to compare it to the alternatives.

Karellen 4y ago

How long does a coal or natural gas plant have to be operating to offset the environmental impact of collecting and producing its construction materials? ...

tuatoru 4y ago
Not just the plant, in the case of fossil fuels' physical environmental impact. The wells, refining plant, and pipelines for gas, and the mines, railways, and ash disposal pits for coal. And the river intakes, detention ponds and so on needed for steam and cooling water.