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The article is wrong. You should still play if there's positive expectancy and the money you spent won't be missed (i.e. you won't be ruined.) See https://quan
by fny 4y ago
The article is wrong. You should still play if there's positive expectancy and the money you spent won't be missed (i.e. you won't be ruined.)
See https://quantwolf.com/doc/powerball/powerball.html https://quantwolf.com/doc/powerball/powerball.html
- Semaphor 4y agoMy reading is different, it’s more "together with the kelly criterion or a weaker version of it, you can say it doesn’t matter if you do". This is still "eh maybe I’ll be lucky" and not "it’s mathematically sensible" because > What it means is that you would have to play the game for thousands of years with the jackpot being greater than 117 million each time in order to realize a positive expected return.
- okintheory 4y agoIf any expected value matters, it's utility, not wealth. If you think utility is linear in wealth, you need to check Jeff Bezos' instagram more.