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> 10 years ago people said nuclear power plants take 10 years More like they said five, then ten after five years ahf passed. >Battery technology isn’t on an

> 10 years ago people said nuclear power plants take 10 years More like they said five, then ten after five years ahf passed. >Battery technology isn’t on any kind of exponential curve. Thats simply false, and a weird thing to fabricate. The very idea discredits the rest of a person's assessment of tech. https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323 https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323 > I get that no one likes to admit they were wrong, This is some extremely strong projection. J'accuse

melling 4y ago
Where do you see an exponential curve? The article doesn’t discuss any exponential decrease for a reason. And most of the “dramatic drop” looks like it happened in the first 10 years Time is running out.
- deleted 4y ago
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- erikmolin 4y ago
  Ok, here's one with a log scale so you can clearly see the exponential trend line https://spectrum.ieee.org/chart-behind-the-three-decade-collapse-of-lithium-ion-battery-costs https://spectrum.ieee.org/chart-behind-the-three-decade-coll...
  - melling 4y ago
    “Between 1991 and 2018, the average price of the batteries that power mobile phones, fuel electric cars, and underpin green energy storage fell more than thirtyfold” THIRTY FOLD ISNT EXPONENTIAL. Please reevaluate the plan. It likely contains a lot of optimism and a few required miracles
    - evilsetg 4y ago
      > THIRTY FOLD ISNT EXPONENTIAL. A * exp(b * t) = A / 30 => b = - log( 30 ) / t As far as I can see a thirty fold decrease does fit into any exponential curve if you have the right rate constants or times, so I don't really get what you mean with that.
- epistasis 4y ago
  The data is right there, it's on an exponential cost decrease. Very weird to be pointed directly at the data and deny that it says exactly what it says. You say that "nobody likes to be proven wrong" but I in fact do like to be proven wrong. The "nobody" appears to only apply to yourself.

melling 4y ago

Where do you see an exponential curve? The article doesn’t discuss any exponential decrease for a reason. And most of the “dramatic drop” looks like it happened in the first 10 years Time is running out.

deleted 4y ago
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erikmolin 4y ago
Ok, here's one with a log scale so you can clearly see the exponential trend line https://spectrum.ieee.org/chart-behind-the-three-decade-collapse-of-lithium-ion-battery-costs https://spectrum.ieee.org/chart-behind-the-three-decade-coll...
- melling 4y ago
  “Between 1991 and 2018, the average price of the batteries that power mobile phones, fuel electric cars, and underpin green energy storage fell more than thirtyfold” THIRTY FOLD ISNT EXPONENTIAL. Please reevaluate the plan. It likely contains a lot of optimism and a few required miracles
  - evilsetg 4y ago
    > THIRTY FOLD ISNT EXPONENTIAL. A * exp(b * t) = A / 30 => b = - log( 30 ) / t As far as I can see a thirty fold decrease does fit into any exponential curve if you have the right rate constants or times, so I don't really get what you mean with that.
epistasis 4y ago
The data is right there, it's on an exponential cost decrease. Very weird to be pointed directly at the data and deny that it says exactly what it says. You say that "nobody likes to be proven wrong" but I in fact do like to be proven wrong. The "nobody" appears to only apply to yourself.