3 ms·
I guess an alternate view is that Putin may use nukes as an instrument of terror. The Japanese surrendered in WWII because of the terror of a new large scale u
by rapjr9 4y ago
I guess an alternate view is that Putin may use nukes as an instrument of terror. The Japanese surrendered in WWII because of the terror of a new large scale unknown weapon being demonstrated. Using nukes against Ukraine's larger cities that are far away from the front lines would not immediately endanger Russian troops. Putin also has not sent all of his forces to Ukraine, he's kept much of the best near him. It seems likely he still has way more troops at his command at home than anyone who might oppose him would. He seems to be taking extreme precautions against covid for himself (and also likely against assassination.)
On the other hand, I like this political analysis. It occurs to me that Russia must now be experiencing a manpower shortage. They have sent something like 150,000? troops to Ukraine and a lot of them got killed or wounded. They are rounding up 300,000 more, taking them away from jobs and families. Estimates are that 500,000 men have fled the country (to avoid the draft, and the IT workers and others got out early). That has got to make a huge dent in workers in Russia. They are not going to be able to build things, to keep their economy fully functioning, when the most fit people they have are being pulled away into war. And more are being pulled into manufacturing weapons to support the war.
It is a huge squandering of people power and resources, and it has got to be having devastating effects already. The pandemic has and is creating a shortage of workers in the US and must have done the same in Russia; imagine if the US also had a war going where we sent three quarters of a million troops to train and fight while also converting some industries to war production! There would be shortages of workers, services, and products. Inflation would increase. There have to be repercussions in Russia currently because of this, which would have an effect on the political calculations.
- hackandthink 4y agoYesterday I heard from some IT guys from Saint Petersburg, now working in Spain. Smart and lucky guys! "It's up to you not to heed the call-up" "Maybe I wanna see the wheatfields Over Kiev and down to the sea All the young people down the ages They gladly marched off to die" The Clash - The Call Up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ScaGjwkg2Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ScaGjwkg2Y
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago>Putin also has not sent all of his forces to Ukraine, he's kept much of the best near him. No he hasn't, he's used all his best already. Wagner is still active in Ukraine. Not using your best forces makes zero strategic sense. Why wouldn't they use their best and just prolong the war by loosing slowly instead of going for a quick victory? The quicker you can win a war, there better it is for you. The "Russia hasn't sent its best yet and is saving them for later" is just a pro-Kremlin meme to try to justify the sorry state and lack of performance of the Russian military.
- rapjr9 4y agoPutin would never leave Moscow and himself unprotected. There have always been missile installations and mobile missile systems near key infrastructure in Russia, and those have not left the country. There are forces guarding the Kremlin, the oligarchs, and key facilities. Those were not sent off to Ukraine. It makes zero strategic sense to leave your homeland unprotected. There are still substantial forces left in Russia.
- alexvoda 4y agoWe have confirmed proof that Putin sent people originally assigned to those missile installations you mentioned to instead be cannon fodder in Ukraine. He is leaving plenty of places less protected (probably woth the exception of Moscow). Also, not all fighting skills are transferable. Some were not sent and probably wont be sent to Ukraine (except as cannon fodder) because there is nothing usefull they can do. If Russia still had unused human resources they would not be drafting at an enormous internal stability cost.