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Extinction level event is precisely what I am looking at. It’s funny to me that even here in HN people don’t get this at all. They fall behind simple truisms “

Extinction level event is precisely what I am looking at. It’s funny to me that even here in HN people don’t get this at all. They fall behind simple truisms “automation only increases jobs”. It’s almost as if they’ve forgotten Trump got elected because vast swathes of America were deindustrialised and that led to a collapse to the quality of life in those regions. On research that I’ve read, automation has definitely decreased the number of industrial jobs in America. Those people, some in large numbers, never found other jobs that were as well paying. But like David Simon always says “American distopia doesn’t sell in America”.

robertlagrant 4y ago
People theoufht the same with advancements in agritech 150 years ago. If 30% of the population isn't out in the fields, they'll be unemployed forever. Turns out we invent new jobs all the time. Whether they're worth taking Vs doing something more similar to your current job but for a bit less money is an individual's choice, of course.
- kranke155 4y ago
  The average height of Englishmen actually went down during the industrial revolution (presumably) due to malnutrition. New histories of the period think of it as potentially as one of the few times we know where there was an enormous economic boom alongside a general collapse of quality of life. Ir could be we are looking at something similar at the moment with the digital revolution. Yes eventually we all retrain and the effect will be nil, but in the in-between time, a lot of people might suffer immensely.
  - robertlagrant 4y ago
    I used that giant example a bit comically, perhaps. We're not talking about rapidly retraining a huge, illiterate, agriculture-focused workforce, with utterly game-changing technology. We're talking about things that can be eased into, by white collar workers. And the numbers affected are nothing like the industrial revolution's either.
    - kranke155 4y ago
      Im not sure for how long that will hold up if we end up automating all vehicle driving, image generation and robotising large parts of our workforce.
      - robertlagrant 4y ago
        Driving is certainly a more significant workforce than image generation, but that seems to be a completely separate area of research.
        kranke155 4y ago
        Certainly. What I mean is - I didn’t expect image generative AI to get good this quickly. Before DallE I didn’t expect it to happen at all - I had no idea it was possible until it happened and I was forced to face it. Driving seems like a tough nut to crack, but what if we suddenly start obliterating multiple areas of human employment one after the other? Ones we haven’t even thought of?

robertlagrant 4y ago

People theoufht the same with advancements in agritech 150 years ago. If 30% of the population isn't out in the fields, they'll be unemployed forever. Turns out we invent new jobs all the time. Whether they're worth taking Vs doing something more similar to your current job but for a bit less money is an individual's choice, of course.

kranke155 4y ago
The average height of Englishmen actually went down during the industrial revolution (presumably) due to malnutrition. New histories of the period think of it as potentially as one of the few times we know where there was an enormous economic boom alongside a general collapse of quality of life. Ir could be we are looking at something similar at the moment with the digital revolution. Yes eventually we all retrain and the effect will be nil, but in the in-between time, a lot of people might suffer immensely.
- robertlagrant 4y ago
  I used that giant example a bit comically, perhaps. We're not talking about rapidly retraining a huge, illiterate, agriculture-focused workforce, with utterly game-changing technology. We're talking about things that can be eased into, by white collar workers. And the numbers affected are nothing like the industrial revolution's either.
  - kranke155 4y ago
    Im not sure for how long that will hold up if we end up automating all vehicle driving, image generation and robotising large parts of our workforce.
    - robertlagrant 4y ago
      Driving is certainly a more significant workforce than image generation, but that seems to be a completely separate area of research.
      - kranke155 4y ago
        Certainly. What I mean is - I didn’t expect image generative AI to get good this quickly. Before DallE I didn’t expect it to happen at all - I had no idea it was possible until it happened and I was forced to face it. Driving seems like a tough nut to crack, but what if we suddenly start obliterating multiple areas of human employment one after the other? Ones we haven’t even thought of?