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The window for China to successfully execute an amphibious assault on Taiwan is closed. It would be a cluserfuck of the highest order. It would also be telegr

The window for China to successfully execute an amphibious assault on Taiwan is closed. It would be a cluserfuck of the highest order. It would also be telegraphed years in advance just by the sheer number of troops and landing craft needed and they would not have air or naval superiority in any realistic scenario. Taiwan is heavily defended. Taiwan can be destroyed (nukes) but cannot be annexed by force in any realistic assessment of capability.

ijidak 4y ago
What about a siege? The more I look at it, the more the ancient siege seems more likely than an invasion. China doesn't want to destroy Taiwan. Plus, destroying non-Taiwanese vessels and planes trying to break the siege seems like it would be more palatable to Chinese leaders' domestic audience. China seemed to do a dress rehearsal for this strategy a month or two ago.
- CamperBob2 4y ago
  The US would recreate the Berlin Airlift in that case. If China wants to shoot down US military cargo aircraft, well... they might as well have launched a full-scale invasion. It will cost them just as much.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    The Chinese would just bomb the airfields in Taiwan.
  - refurb 4y ago
    I’m not even sure that would be needed. Just send a US ship with escort to Taiwan. China would have to attack US military ships to stop it. I doubt it would happen.
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      That's not what they're going to do. They're going to lay thousands of smart mines. The US military ships will have to either spend weeks demining, shoot down Chinese mine-layers and fire the first shot, commit suicide, or give up.
      - refurb 4y ago
        Sure, then the US can just demine the area. It won't take weeks to clear a path.
        sudosysgen 4y ago
        I don't think you understand how modern naval mines work. In relatively shallow waters, bottom mines can be employed, which are not visible on sonar, and they use a variety of sensors so that it is incredibly difficult to trick them into detonating. Others burrow underground at higher depths still and then fire a torpedo at passing ships. So generally modern mines have to be disabled one-by-one, and without firing on Chinese forces, the Chinese would be laying more mines than the US Navy can disable. It will definitely take weeks if a path is ever completed. Even fairly primitive mines in relatively smaller numbers (scarcely more than a thousand - China has at least 100,000) in the Iraq War were able to score a mission kill and a major hit on US ships. And that was without US ships actually docking in Iraq. Do you know how long it took to sweep just over 1000 of those quite primitive mines in Iraq? Around 3 months.
        refurb 4y ago
        No doubt it took long to sweep those mines in Iraq, but apparently it didn't stop the US Navy from participating in both Iraq Wars?
        sudosysgen 4y ago
        The US Navy just stayed beyond the range of the mines, they really didn't need to get through.
throwaway2037 4y ago
I think a naval blockade is most likely. If they block all ships in and out (except food), then the Taiwan economy will crumble. Taiwan will be forced to negotiate for a peaceful annexation. Also, they will take the islands very close to Fujian province on Day One. Just like Russia took Crimea. If the US military tries to interfere, China will threaten to nuke the US, so US military will back down. There will be a global depression for many reasons: (1) no chip exports from TSMC, (2) the whole industrialised world will try to decouple from China ASAP -- like Russia but with 100x economic impact. To be clear: I don't like any of these scenarios, but this is my "real politik" view. None of it would be rational for Mainland China, but it is a dictatorship. Dictators don't play by the rules.
- another2another 4y ago
  I think what you're saying is that Taiwan should invest in a fleet of submarines that can keep their ports free from blockade.
  - throwaway2037 4y ago
    I did some Google searches. Taiwan has been trying for years to buy more modern subs. All attempts fails. They are now developing a domestic solution. Read more here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Defense_Submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Defense_Submarine
  - jimmydorry 4y ago
    Taiwan can't, but didn't I hear about one of their neighbours doing such a thing? Oh yeah... Australia. Funnily enough, the contract for the next-gen fleet they were building with France got cancelled and re-made with the US + UK, which is an interesting coincidence considering who the largest non-Chinese force in that region is.
    - throwaway2037 4y ago
      About your last clause: <<which is an interesting coincidence considering who the largest non-Chinese force in that region is>> I assume you are referring to the United States. Is the US military based in East Asia larger than Japan Self-Defence Forces? Honestly, I'm not sure. JSDF is much larger than most people realize. And to be clear, the UK has almost no presence in East Asia now. Every few years, they have a global tour, but nothing else. And regarding the Australia submarine deal, France would only build diesel-electric subs. US+UK promised to help Australia build nuclear subs. To me, that is the #1 reason why Australia cancelled the France deal. I am sure they negotiated for months behind the scenes to upgrade to nuclear. When rejected, they announced the Ausuk deal.

ijidak 4y ago

What about a siege? The more I look at it, the more the ancient siege seems more likely than an invasion. China doesn't want to destroy Taiwan. Plus, destroying non-Taiwanese vessels and planes trying to break the siege seems like it would be more palatable to Chinese leaders' domestic audience. China seemed to do a dress rehearsal for this strategy a month or two ago.

CamperBob2 4y ago
The US would recreate the Berlin Airlift in that case. If China wants to shoot down US military cargo aircraft, well... they might as well have launched a full-scale invasion. It will cost them just as much.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  The Chinese would just bomb the airfields in Taiwan.
- refurb 4y ago
  I’m not even sure that would be needed. Just send a US ship with escort to Taiwan. China would have to attack US military ships to stop it. I doubt it would happen.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    That's not what they're going to do. They're going to lay thousands of smart mines. The US military ships will have to either spend weeks demining, shoot down Chinese mine-layers and fire the first shot, commit suicide, or give up.
    - refurb 4y ago
      Sure, then the US can just demine the area. It won't take weeks to clear a path.
      - sudosysgen 4y ago
        I don't think you understand how modern naval mines work. In relatively shallow waters, bottom mines can be employed, which are not visible on sonar, and they use a variety of sensors so that it is incredibly difficult to trick them into detonating. Others burrow underground at higher depths still and then fire a torpedo at passing ships. So generally modern mines have to be disabled one-by-one, and without firing on Chinese forces, the Chinese would be laying more mines than the US Navy can disable. It will definitely take weeks if a path is ever completed. Even fairly primitive mines in relatively smaller numbers (scarcely more than a thousand - China has at least 100,000) in the Iraq War were able to score a mission kill and a major hit on US ships. And that was without US ships actually docking in Iraq. Do you know how long it took to sweep just over 1000 of those quite primitive mines in Iraq? Around 3 months.
        refurb 4y ago
        No doubt it took long to sweep those mines in Iraq, but apparently it didn't stop the US Navy from participating in both Iraq Wars?
        sudosysgen 4y ago
        The US Navy just stayed beyond the range of the mines, they really didn't need to get through.

throwaway2037 4y ago

I think a naval blockade is most likely. If they block all ships in and out (except food), then the Taiwan economy will crumble. Taiwan will be forced to negotiate for a peaceful annexation. Also, they will take the islands very close to Fujian province on Day One. Just like Russia took Crimea. If the US military tries to interfere, China will threaten to nuke the US, so US military will back down. There will be a global depression for many reasons: (1) no chip exports from TSMC, (2) the whole industrialised world will try to decouple from China ASAP -- like Russia but with 100x economic impact. To be clear: I don't like any of these scenarios, but this is my "real politik" view. None of it would be rational for Mainland China, but it is a dictatorship. Dictators don't play by the rules.

another2another 4y ago
I think what you're saying is that Taiwan should invest in a fleet of submarines that can keep their ports free from blockade.
- throwaway2037 4y ago
  I did some Google searches. Taiwan has been trying for years to buy more modern subs. All attempts fails. They are now developing a domestic solution. Read more here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Defense_Submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Defense_Submarine
- jimmydorry 4y ago
  Taiwan can't, but didn't I hear about one of their neighbours doing such a thing? Oh yeah... Australia. Funnily enough, the contract for the next-gen fleet they were building with France got cancelled and re-made with the US + UK, which is an interesting coincidence considering who the largest non-Chinese force in that region is.
  - throwaway2037 4y ago
    About your last clause: <<which is an interesting coincidence considering who the largest non-Chinese force in that region is>> I assume you are referring to the United States. Is the US military based in East Asia larger than Japan Self-Defence Forces? Honestly, I'm not sure. JSDF is much larger than most people realize. And to be clear, the UK has almost no presence in East Asia now. Every few years, they have a global tour, but nothing else. And regarding the Australia submarine deal, France would only build diesel-electric subs. US+UK promised to help Australia build nuclear subs. To me, that is the #1 reason why Australia cancelled the France deal. I am sure they negotiated for months behind the scenes to upgrade to nuclear. When rejected, they announced the Ausuk deal.