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> China can't lose all business relationship with America And America can't afford to lose business with China. So China will make the calculation that it can

> China can't lose all business relationship with America And America can't afford to lose business with China. So China will make the calculation that it can get away with an invasion of Taiwan.

varispeed 4y ago
Probably Russia has made the same calculation about Germany. The biggest economy in Europe entirely dependent on Russian energy. If their "special operation" actually lasted a couple of weeks as they promised (it's hard to believe Germany didn't know about this way in advance), it is unlikely Europe, under German leadership, would have done anything apart from token sanctions. The contributing factor was of course the US and NATO projecting weakness after debacle in Afghanistan. Putin high on his own delusions, surrounded by yes-men, thought that was the once in a lifetime opportunity to pounce. If European economies weren't so dependent on Russian energy supplies, this war could probably have ended much quicker and thousands wouldn't have died needlessly.
- herbst 4y ago
  > unlikely Europe, under German leadership Wait what?
  - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
    Germany's the richest EU country and doesn't hesitate to throw its weight around to get things done their way which is why many refer to the EU as having a German leadership and it's why many other EU countries are unhappy as some German policies are highly unpopular at EU level (supporting illegal mass migration, anti-nuclear "green" stance while burning gas and coal, long term pro-Russian stance, etc.), as are their politicians at EU level like Ursula who have a track record of incompetence and corruption yet are still in power.
    - herbst 4y ago
      That doesn't make Germany the leader of the EU and even less Europe. They play an way to important role but EU, gladly, doesn't allow defacto leaders
      - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
        It still has way more influence than any other EU member and can push its internal agenda more easily. And since it's also the biggest market in the EU, whatever quirky internal rules and regulations Germany has, get pretty much automatically carried out at EU level by any and all companies looking to do business in the EU.
- caskstrength 4y ago
  > it's hard to believe Germany didn't know about this way in advance Considering that their spy chief was caught "pants down" in Kyiv when invasion started [0] and had to be evacuated by special forces it is highly likely they had no clue. Unless of course they intentionally orchestrated the whole debacle to look like they didn't know, but that sounds more like a conspiracy theory... [0]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/special-forces-evacuated-german-spy-chief-ukraine-focus-magazine-2022-02-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/special-forces-evacuate...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
qwytw 4y ago
Will they also include the fact that it's extremely hard to execute a naval invasion without absolute air and sea superiority in that calculation? They would probably do worse than Russia did in Ukraine even without direct American involvement. China could only feasibly annex Taiwan peacefully (at least in the foreseable future)
- jamiek88 4y ago
  The window for China to successfully execute an amphibious assault on Taiwan is closed. It would be a cluserfuck of the highest order. It would also be telegraphed years in advance just by the sheer number of troops and landing craft needed and they would not have air or naval superiority in any realistic scenario. Taiwan is heavily defended. Taiwan can be destroyed (nukes) but cannot be annexed by force in any realistic assessment of capability.
  - ijidak 4y ago
    What about a siege? The more I look at it, the more the ancient siege seems more likely than an invasion. China doesn't want to destroy Taiwan. Plus, destroying non-Taiwanese vessels and planes trying to break the siege seems like it would be more palatable to Chinese leaders' domestic audience. China seemed to do a dress rehearsal for this strategy a month or two ago.
    - CamperBob2 4y ago
      The US would recreate the Berlin Airlift in that case. If China wants to shoot down US military cargo aircraft, well... they might as well have launched a full-scale invasion. It will cost them just as much.
      - sudosysgen 4y ago
        The Chinese would just bomb the airfields in Taiwan.
      - refurb 4y ago
NovemberWhiskey 4y ago
If you look at the iPhone, China's contribution is basically only final assembly. The parts that are being assembled actually come from US/Japan/Korea/Taiwan - so it's not quite as straightforward as it seems.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  PRC went from capturing $8 in final assembly fees on iphone3s to ~$100 / ~25% of BOM cost of iPhone X. More highend PRC components are making their way as well (hence YMTC about to get boot). PRC is also like 1/3 of semi market (400B), that's a lot of western semi R&D that industrial policy like 52B CHIPs act spread over multiple years isn't close to replacing.

> China can't lose all business relationship with America And America can't afford to lose business with China. So China will make the calculation that it can get away with an invasion of Taiwan.

varispeed 4y ago

Probably Russia has made the same calculation about Germany. The biggest economy in Europe entirely dependent on Russian energy. If their "special operation" actually lasted a couple of weeks as they promised (it's hard to believe Germany didn't know about this way in advance), it is unlikely Europe, under German leadership, would have done anything apart from token sanctions. The contributing factor was of course the US and NATO projecting weakness after debacle in Afghanistan. Putin high on his own delusions, surrounded by yes-men, thought that was the once in a lifetime opportunity to pounce. If European economies weren't so dependent on Russian energy supplies, this war could probably have ended much quicker and thousands wouldn't have died needlessly.

herbst 4y ago
> unlikely Europe, under German leadership Wait what?
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  Germany's the richest EU country and doesn't hesitate to throw its weight around to get things done their way which is why many refer to the EU as having a German leadership and it's why many other EU countries are unhappy as some German policies are highly unpopular at EU level (supporting illegal mass migration, anti-nuclear "green" stance while burning gas and coal, long term pro-Russian stance, etc.), as are their politicians at EU level like Ursula who have a track record of incompetence and corruption yet are still in power.
  - herbst 4y ago
    That doesn't make Germany the leader of the EU and even less Europe. They play an way to important role but EU, gladly, doesn't allow defacto leaders
    - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
      It still has way more influence than any other EU member and can push its internal agenda more easily. And since it's also the biggest market in the EU, whatever quirky internal rules and regulations Germany has, get pretty much automatically carried out at EU level by any and all companies looking to do business in the EU.
caskstrength 4y ago
> it's hard to believe Germany didn't know about this way in advance Considering that their spy chief was caught "pants down" in Kyiv when invasion started [0] and had to be evacuated by special forces it is highly likely they had no clue. Unless of course they intentionally orchestrated the whole debacle to look like they didn't know, but that sounds more like a conspiracy theory... [0]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/special-forces-evacuated-german-spy-chief-ukraine-focus-magazine-2022-02-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/special-forces-evacuate...
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

qwytw 4y ago

Will they also include the fact that it's extremely hard to execute a naval invasion without absolute air and sea superiority in that calculation? They would probably do worse than Russia did in Ukraine even without direct American involvement. China could only feasibly annex Taiwan peacefully (at least in the foreseable future)

jamiek88 4y ago
The window for China to successfully execute an amphibious assault on Taiwan is closed. It would be a cluserfuck of the highest order. It would also be telegraphed years in advance just by the sheer number of troops and landing craft needed and they would not have air or naval superiority in any realistic scenario. Taiwan is heavily defended. Taiwan can be destroyed (nukes) but cannot be annexed by force in any realistic assessment of capability.
- ijidak 4y ago
  What about a siege? The more I look at it, the more the ancient siege seems more likely than an invasion. China doesn't want to destroy Taiwan. Plus, destroying non-Taiwanese vessels and planes trying to break the siege seems like it would be more palatable to Chinese leaders' domestic audience. China seemed to do a dress rehearsal for this strategy a month or two ago.
  - CamperBob2 4y ago
    The US would recreate the Berlin Airlift in that case. If China wants to shoot down US military cargo aircraft, well... they might as well have launched a full-scale invasion. It will cost them just as much.
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      The Chinese would just bomb the airfields in Taiwan.
    - refurb 4y ago

NovemberWhiskey 4y ago

If you look at the iPhone, China's contribution is basically only final assembly. The parts that are being assembled actually come from US/Japan/Korea/Taiwan - so it's not quite as straightforward as it seems.

dirtyid 4y ago
PRC went from capturing $8 in final assembly fees on iphone3s to ~$100 / ~25% of BOM cost of iPhone X. More highend PRC components are making their way as well (hence YMTC about to get boot). PRC is also like 1/3 of semi market (400B), that's a lot of western semi R&D that industrial policy like 52B CHIPs act spread over multiple years isn't close to replacing.