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CIA Thought Putin Would Quickly Conquer Ukraine. Why Did They Get It So Wrong?

7 points by mikece 4y ago

hindsightbias 4y ago
Any reading of the agencies annual public congressional reports told us the Soviets were 9’ tall in 1989. They might be slightly more grounded in reality than Putin.
draw_down 4y ago
Kukumber 4y ago
conquer? Putin never wanted to "conquer" Ukraine, their goal was pretty simple, uncorrupt and denazify the donbas and prevent NATO from spreading their anti-russia propaganda https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/04/welcome-to-the-most-corrupt-nation-in-europe-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/04/welcome-to-the-... I can smell the similar "china invade taiwan" american propaganda
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > Putin never wanted to "conquer" Ukraine He invaded and annexed Ukrainian territory, and setup supposed “breakaway” groups in other parts of Ukrainian territory (established by Russian military and Russia-directed Wagner mercenaries) in direct response to a pro-Russian government being deposed in 2014, and made fairly explicit that he intended to remove and replace the new government with the escalation in 2022. > their goal was pretty simple, uncorrupt and denazify the donbas No, their own (laughable, given the Russian-sponsored Sparta group) statement was that they intended to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine (not Donbas) after characterizing the Ukrainian government as a Nazi regime.
  - Kukumber 4y ago
    > He invaded and annexed Ukrainian territory, and setup supposed “breakaway” groups in other parts of Ukrainian territory (established by Russian military and Russia-directed Wagner mercenaries) in direct response to a pro-Russian government being deposed in 2014, and made fairly explicit that he intended to remove and replace the new government with the escalation in 2022. Why it is wrong when it's Russia, but totally ok when it is the US? How Zelensky became president? how Ursula listens to whatever they told them to do, and how we miraculously found American/British/Israeli mercenaries fighting in Ukraine? It's all a one-sided fairy tale > No, their own (laughable, given the Russian-sponsored Sparta group) statement was that they intended to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine (not Donbas) after characterizing the Ukrainian government as a Nazi regime. Who to trust? The Guardian isn't a reliable source? Ukraine being a corrupt country was a made up story?
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > Why it is wrong when it's Russia, but totally ok when it is the US? The US hasn’t forcibly annexed any territory since the first decade of the 20th Century.
      - Kukumber 4y ago
        They did, they just smarter than Russia Russia is too stupid, they fell into the NATO's trap Unless Putin works with NATO and the goal is something that goes beyond Ukraine, the unification of Europe perhaps
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        > They did, they just smarter than Russia Care to explain this?.
        Kukumber 4y ago
        Open a map, and count how many countries with US military base https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_military_bases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_military...
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        Having a military base is not the same as annexing a country, if this is the best that Russian propaganda can do they are really scraping the barrel now. I mean, would you really compare Russias genocide, rape and torture of the Ukrainians to America having a military force in and protecting another country?.
        Kukumber 4y ago
        > I mean, would you really compare Russias genocide, rape and torture of the Ukrainians to America having a military force in and protecting another country?. The US military did the exact same atrocities and war crimes in both Irak and Afghanistan, and let's not forget about Guantanamo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_war_crimes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_war_crimes Every wars are crimes, none should be started in the first place
morpheos137 4y ago
Putin never said he intended to conquer Ukraine. This is a western meme, strawman.
- jmpman 4y ago
  http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67843 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67843 “To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation. It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory.“ I interpret his speech as stating that Russia’s intention is to destroy the Ukraine military, and remove its government. Russia then plans to install their own government. Is that not “intended to conquer”? Am I misinterpreting his intention?
  - morpheos137 4y ago
    Conquer usually implies to occupy and take possession.
    - jmpman 4y ago
      So, the US didn’t conquer Iraq?
- hackerlight 4y ago
  He lies all the time. Ignore what he says. Look at his actions. Sending troops to Kyiv shows what he intended (even if he failed, in the end).

7 points by mikece 4y ago

Any reading of the agencies annual public congressional reports told us the Soviets were 9’ tall in 1989. They might be slightly more grounded in reality than Putin.

draw_down 4y ago

Kukumber 4y ago

conquer? Putin never wanted to "conquer" Ukraine, their goal was pretty simple, uncorrupt and denazify the donbas and prevent NATO from spreading their anti-russia propaganda https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/04/welcome-to-the-most-corrupt-nation-in-europe-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/04/welcome-to-the-... I can smell the similar "china invade taiwan" american propaganda

dragonwriter 4y ago
> Putin never wanted to "conquer" Ukraine He invaded and annexed Ukrainian territory, and setup supposed “breakaway” groups in other parts of Ukrainian territory (established by Russian military and Russia-directed Wagner mercenaries) in direct response to a pro-Russian government being deposed in 2014, and made fairly explicit that he intended to remove and replace the new government with the escalation in 2022. > their goal was pretty simple, uncorrupt and denazify the donbas No, their own (laughable, given the Russian-sponsored Sparta group) statement was that they intended to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine (not Donbas) after characterizing the Ukrainian government as a Nazi regime.
- Kukumber 4y ago
  > He invaded and annexed Ukrainian territory, and setup supposed “breakaway” groups in other parts of Ukrainian territory (established by Russian military and Russia-directed Wagner mercenaries) in direct response to a pro-Russian government being deposed in 2014, and made fairly explicit that he intended to remove and replace the new government with the escalation in 2022. Why it is wrong when it's Russia, but totally ok when it is the US? How Zelensky became president? how Ursula listens to whatever they told them to do, and how we miraculously found American/British/Israeli mercenaries fighting in Ukraine? It's all a one-sided fairy tale > No, their own (laughable, given the Russian-sponsored Sparta group) statement was that they intended to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine (not Donbas) after characterizing the Ukrainian government as a Nazi regime. Who to trust? The Guardian isn't a reliable source? Ukraine being a corrupt country was a made up story?
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > Why it is wrong when it's Russia, but totally ok when it is the US? The US hasn’t forcibly annexed any territory since the first decade of the 20th Century.
    - Kukumber 4y ago
      They did, they just smarter than Russia Russia is too stupid, they fell into the NATO's trap Unless Putin works with NATO and the goal is something that goes beyond Ukraine, the unification of Europe perhaps
      - _kbh_ 4y ago
        > They did, they just smarter than Russia Care to explain this?.
        Kukumber 4y ago
        Open a map, and count how many countries with US military base https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_military_bases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_military...
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        Having a military base is not the same as annexing a country, if this is the best that Russian propaganda can do they are really scraping the barrel now. I mean, would you really compare Russias genocide, rape and torture of the Ukrainians to America having a military force in and protecting another country?.
        Kukumber 4y ago
        > I mean, would you really compare Russias genocide, rape and torture of the Ukrainians to America having a military force in and protecting another country?. The US military did the exact same atrocities and war crimes in both Irak and Afghanistan, and let's not forget about Guantanamo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_war_crimes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_war_crimes Every wars are crimes, none should be started in the first place

morpheos137 4y ago

Putin never said he intended to conquer Ukraine. This is a western meme, strawman.

jmpman 4y ago
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67843 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67843 “To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation. It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory.“ I interpret his speech as stating that Russia’s intention is to destroy the Ukraine military, and remove its government. Russia then plans to install their own government. Is that not “intended to conquer”? Am I misinterpreting his intention?
- morpheos137 4y ago
  Conquer usually implies to occupy and take possession.
  - jmpman 4y ago
    So, the US didn’t conquer Iraq?
hackerlight 4y ago
He lies all the time. Ignore what he says. Look at his actions. Sending troops to Kyiv shows what he intended (even if he failed, in the end).