In no particular order: - Russia overestimated their position - Russia believed the war would be over in a few days (which many in the West also believed) -

In no particular order: - Russia overestimated their position - Russia believed the war would be over in a few days (which many in the West also believed) - Russia assumed Europe would keep buying their oil (which has happened to an extent) - Russia believes they can "out-suffer" the West and we will crack after a few months - Russia believed the West was too polarized to reach consensus on an effective response In short, Russia had a bad read on the situation and shot themselves in the foot. They thought they were in a position to impose their will without a fight or a significant response from the West. We have seen a little bit of the same attitude from China the past several years - decadent West on the decline, democracy is flawed, etc. - but I have to think they are smart enough to realize they have been underestimating us. At a minimum, I think it pushes back their timeline for when they believed they would become the world's premier power. Hopefully, that buys us all some time to cool off and find diplomatic solutions.