6 ms·

I’m going to post an Ask HN about what am I supposed to do when I’m “disrupted”. I work in film / video / CG where the bread and butter is short form advertisin

I’m going to post an Ask HN about what am I supposed to do when I’m “disrupted”. I work in film / video / CG where the bread and butter is short form advertising for Youtube, Instagram and TV. It’s painfully obvious that in 1 year the job might be exceedingly more difficult than it is now.

naillo 4y ago
Whatever insights and expertize you've gained up until now can probably be used to gain enough of a competitive advantage in this future industry to be employed. I doubt the people that will spend their time on this professionally will be former coders etc. (I've seen the stable diffusion outputs that coders will tweet. It's a good illustration that taste is still hugely important.)
- joshuahaglund 4y ago
  I like your optimism but OP's job is to take text instructions and turn them into video, for advertisements. If Google (who already control so much of the advertising space) can take text instructions and turn them into advertisements, what's left for OP to do here? Even if there's some additional editing required this seems like it will greatly reduce the hours an editor is needed. And it can probably iterate options and work faster than a human.
  - simonw 4y ago
    Maybe OP's future involves being able to do their work 10x faster, while producing much higher quality results than people who have been given access to a generative AI model without first spending a decade+ learning what makes a good film clip. The optimistic view of all of this is that these tools will give people with skill and experience a massive productivity boost, allowing them to do the best work of their careers. There are plenty of pessimistic views too. In a few years time we'll be able to look back on this and see which viewpoints won.
    - gjs278 4y ago
  - pyfork 4y ago
    OP probably does more than it seems by interpreting what their client is asking for. Clients ask for some weird shit sometimes, and being able to parse the nonsense and get to the meat is where a lot of skill comes into play. I think Cleo Abrams on YT recently tackled this exact question. She tried to generate art using DALL-E along with a professional artist, and after letting the public vote blindly, the pro artist clearly 'made' better content, even though they were both just typing into a text prompt. Here's the link if you're interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiJeB2NJy1A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiJeB2NJy1A I could see a lot of digital artists actually getting better at their job because of this, not getting totally displaced.
- altcognito 4y ago
  I think there will be tons of jobs that resemble software development for proper, quick high quality generation of video/images. That being said, it’s possible that it won’t pay anywhere near what you’re used to. Either way, it will probably be a solid decade before you’ve really felt the pain for disruption. MP3s, which were a far more straightforward path to disruption took at least that long from conception.
  - jstummbillig 4y ago
    > That being said, it’s possible that it won’t pay anywhere near what you’re used to. Also won't nearly require the amount of work it used to.
jeffbee 4y ago
When you animate a horse, does it have 5 legs with weird backwards joints? If not, your job is probably safe for now.
- kranke155 4y ago
  How long do you think until the horse looks perfect? 12 months? 5 years? I’m still 30 and I don’t see how my industry won’t be entirely disrupted by this within the next decade. And that’s my optimistic projection. It could be we have amazing output in 24 months.
  - bitL 4y ago
    It's not about random short clips - imagine introducing a character like Mickey Mouse and reusing him everywhere with the same character - my guess is it's going to take a while until "transfer" like that will work reliably.
    - fragmede 4y ago
      Dreambooth and Texual inversion is already here, and it's been just over a month since Stable Diffusion was released, so I'd bet on sooner rather than later. https://github.com/XavierXiao/Dreambooth-Stable-Diffusion https://github.com/XavierXiao/Dreambooth-Stable-Diffusion https://textual-inversion.github.io/ https://textual-inversion.github.io/
  - visarga 4y ago
    IT has been disrupting itself for six decades and there are more developers than ever, with high pay.
  - Vetch 4y ago
    Have to temper expectations with fact that a generated video of a thing is also a recording of a simulation of the thing. For long video, you'd want everything from temporal consistency and emotional affect maintenance to conservation of energy, angular momentum and respecting this or that dynamics. A bunch of fields would be simultaneously impacted. From computational physics to 3D animation (if you have a 3D renderer and video generator, you can compose both). While it's not completely unfounded to extrapolate that progress will be as fast as with everything prior, consequences would be a lot more profound while complexities are much compounded. I down weight accordingly even though I'd actually prefer to be wrong.
metadat 4y ago
Here's the link to kranke155's submission: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33099182 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33099182
Keyframe 4y ago
What happened to volume of web and graphic designers when templates+wordpress hit them?
- jstummbillig 4y ago
  A lot of additional work, because the industry was growing like crazy in tandem.
  - visarga 4y ago
    Exactly. We have a blindspot, we can't imagine second and higher order effects of a new technology. So we're left with first order effects which seem pessimistic for jobs.
    - jstummbillig 4y ago
      I don't think what happened around WP to designers is a strong indicator of what's necessarily gonna happen here. It certainly could play out similarly but, at some point, if all the work in a field from now on only requires 1/100 of manual labor, people will probably go out of work.
      - kranke155 4y ago
        This pretty much seems like the self driving car for my industry. I just don’t see how I can remain a truck driver when the AI is going to come for free with the Car. But yeah I’ll figure something out.
- yehAnd 4y ago
  We employed a bunch of people to enter data into a template. Bit of an apples/oranges comparison to tech that will (eventually) generate endless supply of content with less effort than writing a Tweet. The era of inventing layers of abstraction and indirection that simplify computer use down to structured data entry is coming to an end. A whole lot of IT jobs are not safe either. Ops is a lot of sending parameters over the wire to APIs for others to compute. Why hire them when “production EKS cluster” can output a TF template?
echelon 4y ago
Start making content and charging for it. You no longer need institutional capital to make a Disney- or Pixar-like experience. Small creators will win under this new regime of tools. It's a democratizing force.
- visarga 4y ago
  > It's a democratizing force. I'm wondering why the open source community doesn't get this. So many voices were raised against Codex. Now artists against Diffusion models. But the model itself is a distillation of everything we created, it can compactly encode it and recreate it in any shape and form we desire. That means everyone gets to benefit, all skills are available for everyone, all tailored to our needs.
  - echelon 4y ago
    > all skills are available for everyone Exactly this! We no longer have to pay the 10,000 hours to specialize. The opportunity cost to choose our skill sets is huge. In the future, we won't have to contend with that horrible choice anymore. Anyone will be able to paint, play the piano, act, code, and more.
- yehAnd 4y ago
  Outcome uncertain. Why would I need to buy content when I can generate my own with a local GPU? Eventually the data model will be abstracted into deterministic code using a seed value; think implications of E=mc^2 being unpacked. The only “data” to download will be the source. And the real world politics have not gone anywhere; none of us own the machines that produce the machines to run this. They could just sell locked down devices that will only iterate on their data structures. There is no certainty “this time” we’ll pop “the grand illusion.”
- kranke155 4y ago
  This is true and a good point.
boh 4y ago
There's a huge gap between "that's pretty cool" and a feature length film. People want to create specific stories with specific scenes in specific places that look a specific way. A "Couple kissing in the rain " prompt isn't going to produce something people are going to pay to see. It's more likely that you're still going to be filming/editing/animating but will have an AI layer on top that produces extra effects or generates pieces of a scene. Think "green screen plus", vs fully AI entertainment. People will over-hype this tech like they did with voice and driverless cars but don't let it scare you. Everything is possible, but it's like a person from the 1920's telling everyone the internet will be a thing. Yes it's correct, but also irrelevant at the same time. You already have AI assisted software being used in your industry. Just expect more of that and learn how to use the tools.
- oceanplexian 4y ago
  I actually think it's the opposite, AI will probably be writing the stories and humans might occasionally film a few scenes. ~95% of TV shows and movies are cookie-cutter content, with cookie-cutter acting and production values, with the same hooks and the same tropes regurgitated over and over again. Heck they can't even figure out how to make new IP so they keep making reruns of the same old stuff like Star Wars, Marvel, etc, and people eat it right up. There's nothing better at figuring out how to maximize profit and hook people to watch another episode than a good algorithm.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - kranke155 4y ago
    The first thing to go away will be short content. Instagram and YouTube ads will be AÍ generated. The thing is - that’s the bread and butter of the industry
  - trention 4y ago
    Why would I want to watch AI-generated content?
inerte 4y ago
It depends where you are in the industry. If you're on the creative, storyboard, come up with ideas and marketing side, you will be fine. If you're in actual production, booking sets, unfolding stairs to tape infinite background, picking up the best looking fruits in the grocery store... yeah, not looking good. Go up in the value chain and learn marketing, how to tell stories, etc... you don't want to be approached by clients telling you what you should be doing, you want to be approached and being asked what the clients should be doing.
- kranke155 4y ago
  Absolutely that is my plan. But I fear for my colleagues in other areas. A lot of them are not seeing the (now clearly) exponential improvement curve and they wouldn’t even take this discussion seriously. They’ll just throw it away off hand. But I’ve run my own business and I know what the pressures are. A lot of people working today will not be working in 10 years in my industry, period.
adamsmith143 4y ago
Learn how to use these models is the easiest answer. Prompt Engineering (getting a model to output what you actually want) is going to be something of an art form and I would expect it to be in demand.
- kranke155 4y ago
  I really don’t think the skillset moat will be comparable. It took me 10 years to go from young lad studying film at school to delivering content for major clients like Apple. Knowing my industry (profits squeeze everywhere) I think they’ll get young interns to do AI prompt engineering.
ijidak 4y ago
It won't be easy. But below are my thoughts: #1: Master these new tools #2: Build a workflow that incorporates these tools #3: Master storytelling #4: Master ad tracing and analytics #5: Get better at marketing yourself so that you stand out The market for your skillset may shrink, but I doubt it will disappear... Think about it this way... Humans in cheaper countries are already much more capable than any AI we've built. Yet, even now, There are practical limits on outsourcing. It's hard for me to see how this will be much different for creative work. It's one thing to casually look at images or videos, when there is no specific money-making ad in mind. But as soon as someone is spending thousands to run an ad campaign, just taking whatever the AI spits out is unlikely to be the real workflow. I guess I'm suggesting a more optimistic take... View it as a tool to learn and incorporate in your workflow I don't know if you gain much by stressing too much about being replaced. And I'm not even sure that's reality. I'm almost certain, most of the humans to lose their jobs will be people who either because of fear or stubbornness refuse to get better, refuse to incorporate these tools, and are thus unable to move up the value chain.
- alcover 4y ago
  Get better [...] so that you stand out Please bear with me but this kind of advice is often a bit puzzling to me. I suppose you don't know the person you're replying to, so I read your advice as a general one - useful to anyone in the parent's position. If you were close to her, it would make sense to help her 'stand out' in detriment - logically - to strangers in her field. But here you're kind of helping every reader stand out. I realise this comment is a bit vain. And I like the human touch of you helping a stranger.
  - PinkMilkshake 4y ago
    I [...] don't [...] like [...] helping a stranger. That's not very nice. The world would be a better place if we helped strangers more.
    - ricardobeat 4y ago
      That's a good one, but if you read his comment thoroughly, it is about the illogicality of 'everyone standing out', not the 'get better' part.
odessacubbage 4y ago
i really think it's going to take much longer than people think for this technology to go from 'pretty good' to actually being able to meet a production standard of quality with little to no human involvement. at this point, cleaning up after an ai is still probably more labor intensive than simply using the cheatcodes that already exist for quick and cheap realism. i expect in the midterm, diffusion models will largely exist in the same space as game engines like unity and unreal where it's relatively easy for an illiterate like me to stay within the rails and throw a bunch of premade assets together but getting beyond NINTENDO HIRE THIS MAN! and the stock 'look' of the engine still takes a great deal of expertise. >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1Y_d_Lhp60 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1Y_d_Lhp60
victor9000 4y ago
Don't watch from the sidelines. Become adept at using these tools and use your experience to differentiate yourself from those entering the market.
karmasimida 4y ago
I think short advertisements would be affected most by this, it seems. But here is the catch, there is the same last mile problem for those AI models. Currently it feels like the model can achieve like 80%-90% what a trained human expert can do, but the last 10-20% would extra extra hard to reach human fidelity. It might take years, or it might never happen. That being said, I think anyone who doubts AI-assisted creative workflow is a fuzz is deadly wrong, anyone who refuses those shiny new tools, is likely to be eliminated by sheer market dynamics. They can't compete on the efficiency of it.
dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago
Adapt, it's what humans excel at. Instead of feeling threatened by the new tools, think about how you can use them to enable your work. One of the ironies* of these tools is that they only work because there is so much existing material they can be trained on. Absent that they wouldn't exist. That makes me think: why not think about how to train your own models than entail your own style? Is that practical, how can you make it work and how might you deploy that in your own work? Something that everyone is sticking their heads in their sand about is the real possibility that training models on copyrighted work is a copyright violation. I can't see how such a mechanical transformation of others' work is anything but. People accept violating one person's copyright is a thing but if you do it at scale it somehow isn't. * ironic because they seem creative but they create nothing by themselves, they merely "repackage" other people's creativity.
Thaxll 4y ago
It won't be ready anytime soon imo, looks impressive but who can use that? 512*512 of bad quality, weird looking AI with those moving part that you find everywhere in AI generated art etc ...
j_k_eter 4y ago
I first predicted this tech 5 years ago, but I thought it was 15 years out. What I just said is beginning to happen with pretty much everything. There's a third sentence, but if I write it 10 people will gainsay me. If I omit it, there's a better chance that 10 people will write it for me.
baron816 4y ago
Quite the opposite: you’re going to be in even higher demand and will make more money. Yes, it will be possible for one person to do the work of many, but that just means each person becomes more valuable. It’s also a law in economics that supply often drives demand, and that’s definitely the case in your field. Companies and individuals will want even more of what you want. It’s not like laundry detergent (one can only consume so much of that). There’s almost no limit to how much of what you supply that people could consume. The way I see it, your output could multiply 100 fold. You could build out large, complex projects that used to take massive teams all by yourself, and in a fraction of the time. Companies can than monetize that for consumers. AI is just a tool. Software engineers got rich when their tools got better. More engineers entered the field, and they just kept getting richer. That’s because the value of each engineer increased as they became more productive, and that value helped drive demand.
operator-name 4y ago
A 1 year timespan seems deeply optimistic. Creativity is still hugely important, as is communicating with clients. From what I see, these technologies have just lowered the bar for everyone to create someone, but creating something good still takes thought, time, effort and experience, especially in the advertising space. AI in the near term is never going to be able to translate client requirements either. The feedback cycle, iterations, managing client expectations, etc.
seydor 4y ago
the principle of least action says you will move to adjacent territory. either you become and advertiser, or you learn to make these models

naillo 4y ago

Whatever insights and expertize you've gained up until now can probably be used to gain enough of a competitive advantage in this future industry to be employed. I doubt the people that will spend their time on this professionally will be former coders etc. (I've seen the stable diffusion outputs that coders will tweet. It's a good illustration that taste is still hugely important.)

joshuahaglund 4y ago
I like your optimism but OP's job is to take text instructions and turn them into video, for advertisements. If Google (who already control so much of the advertising space) can take text instructions and turn them into advertisements, what's left for OP to do here? Even if there's some additional editing required this seems like it will greatly reduce the hours an editor is needed. And it can probably iterate options and work faster than a human.
- simonw 4y ago
  Maybe OP's future involves being able to do their work 10x faster, while producing much higher quality results than people who have been given access to a generative AI model without first spending a decade+ learning what makes a good film clip. The optimistic view of all of this is that these tools will give people with skill and experience a massive productivity boost, allowing them to do the best work of their careers. There are plenty of pessimistic views too. In a few years time we'll be able to look back on this and see which viewpoints won.
  - gjs278 4y ago
- pyfork 4y ago
  OP probably does more than it seems by interpreting what their client is asking for. Clients ask for some weird shit sometimes, and being able to parse the nonsense and get to the meat is where a lot of skill comes into play. I think Cleo Abrams on YT recently tackled this exact question. She tried to generate art using DALL-E along with a professional artist, and after letting the public vote blindly, the pro artist clearly 'made' better content, even though they were both just typing into a text prompt. Here's the link if you're interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiJeB2NJy1A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiJeB2NJy1A I could see a lot of digital artists actually getting better at their job because of this, not getting totally displaced.
altcognito 4y ago
I think there will be tons of jobs that resemble software development for proper, quick high quality generation of video/images. That being said, it’s possible that it won’t pay anywhere near what you’re used to. Either way, it will probably be a solid decade before you’ve really felt the pain for disruption. MP3s, which were a far more straightforward path to disruption took at least that long from conception.
- jstummbillig 4y ago
  > That being said, it’s possible that it won’t pay anywhere near what you’re used to. Also won't nearly require the amount of work it used to.

jeffbee 4y ago

When you animate a horse, does it have 5 legs with weird backwards joints? If not, your job is probably safe for now.

kranke155 4y ago
How long do you think until the horse looks perfect? 12 months? 5 years? I’m still 30 and I don’t see how my industry won’t be entirely disrupted by this within the next decade. And that’s my optimistic projection. It could be we have amazing output in 24 months.
- bitL 4y ago
  It's not about random short clips - imagine introducing a character like Mickey Mouse and reusing him everywhere with the same character - my guess is it's going to take a while until "transfer" like that will work reliably.
  - fragmede 4y ago
    Dreambooth and Texual inversion is already here, and it's been just over a month since Stable Diffusion was released, so I'd bet on sooner rather than later. https://github.com/XavierXiao/Dreambooth-Stable-Diffusion https://github.com/XavierXiao/Dreambooth-Stable-Diffusion https://textual-inversion.github.io/ https://textual-inversion.github.io/
- visarga 4y ago
  IT has been disrupting itself for six decades and there are more developers than ever, with high pay.
- Vetch 4y ago
  Have to temper expectations with fact that a generated video of a thing is also a recording of a simulation of the thing. For long video, you'd want everything from temporal consistency and emotional affect maintenance to conservation of energy, angular momentum and respecting this or that dynamics. A bunch of fields would be simultaneously impacted. From computational physics to 3D animation (if you have a 3D renderer and video generator, you can compose both). While it's not completely unfounded to extrapolate that progress will be as fast as with everything prior, consequences would be a lot more profound while complexities are much compounded. I down weight accordingly even though I'd actually prefer to be wrong.

metadat 4y ago

Here's the link to kranke155's submission: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33099182 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33099182

Keyframe 4y ago

What happened to volume of web and graphic designers when templates+wordpress hit them?

jstummbillig 4y ago
A lot of additional work, because the industry was growing like crazy in tandem.
- visarga 4y ago
  Exactly. We have a blindspot, we can't imagine second and higher order effects of a new technology. So we're left with first order effects which seem pessimistic for jobs.
  - jstummbillig 4y ago
    I don't think what happened around WP to designers is a strong indicator of what's necessarily gonna happen here. It certainly could play out similarly but, at some point, if all the work in a field from now on only requires 1/100 of manual labor, people will probably go out of work.
    - kranke155 4y ago
      This pretty much seems like the self driving car for my industry. I just don’t see how I can remain a truck driver when the AI is going to come for free with the Car. But yeah I’ll figure something out.
yehAnd 4y ago
We employed a bunch of people to enter data into a template. Bit of an apples/oranges comparison to tech that will (eventually) generate endless supply of content with less effort than writing a Tweet. The era of inventing layers of abstraction and indirection that simplify computer use down to structured data entry is coming to an end. A whole lot of IT jobs are not safe either. Ops is a lot of sending parameters over the wire to APIs for others to compute. Why hire them when “production EKS cluster” can output a TF template?

echelon 4y ago

Start making content and charging for it. You no longer need institutional capital to make a Disney- or Pixar-like experience. Small creators will win under this new regime of tools. It's a democratizing force.

visarga 4y ago
> It's a democratizing force. I'm wondering why the open source community doesn't get this. So many voices were raised against Codex. Now artists against Diffusion models. But the model itself is a distillation of everything we created, it can compactly encode it and recreate it in any shape and form we desire. That means everyone gets to benefit, all skills are available for everyone, all tailored to our needs.
- echelon 4y ago
  > all skills are available for everyone Exactly this! We no longer have to pay the 10,000 hours to specialize. The opportunity cost to choose our skill sets is huge. In the future, we won't have to contend with that horrible choice anymore. Anyone will be able to paint, play the piano, act, code, and more.
yehAnd 4y ago
Outcome uncertain. Why would I need to buy content when I can generate my own with a local GPU? Eventually the data model will be abstracted into deterministic code using a seed value; think implications of E=mc^2 being unpacked. The only “data” to download will be the source. And the real world politics have not gone anywhere; none of us own the machines that produce the machines to run this. They could just sell locked down devices that will only iterate on their data structures. There is no certainty “this time” we’ll pop “the grand illusion.”
kranke155 4y ago
This is true and a good point.

boh 4y ago

There's a huge gap between "that's pretty cool" and a feature length film. People want to create specific stories with specific scenes in specific places that look a specific way. A "Couple kissing in the rain " prompt isn't going to produce something people are going to pay to see. It's more likely that you're still going to be filming/editing/animating but will have an AI layer on top that produces extra effects or generates pieces of a scene. Think "green screen plus", vs fully AI entertainment. People will over-hype this tech like they did with voice and driverless cars but don't let it scare you. Everything is possible, but it's like a person from the 1920's telling everyone the internet will be a thing. Yes it's correct, but also irrelevant at the same time. You already have AI assisted software being used in your industry. Just expect more of that and learn how to use the tools.

oceanplexian 4y ago
I actually think it's the opposite, AI will probably be writing the stories and humans might occasionally film a few scenes. ~95% of TV shows and movies are cookie-cutter content, with cookie-cutter acting and production values, with the same hooks and the same tropes regurgitated over and over again. Heck they can't even figure out how to make new IP so they keep making reruns of the same old stuff like Star Wars, Marvel, etc, and people eat it right up. There's nothing better at figuring out how to maximize profit and hook people to watch another episode than a good algorithm.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- kranke155 4y ago
  The first thing to go away will be short content. Instagram and YouTube ads will be AÍ generated. The thing is - that’s the bread and butter of the industry
- trention 4y ago
  Why would I want to watch AI-generated content?

inerte 4y ago

It depends where you are in the industry. If you're on the creative, storyboard, come up with ideas and marketing side, you will be fine. If you're in actual production, booking sets, unfolding stairs to tape infinite background, picking up the best looking fruits in the grocery store... yeah, not looking good. Go up in the value chain and learn marketing, how to tell stories, etc... you don't want to be approached by clients telling you what you should be doing, you want to be approached and being asked what the clients should be doing.

kranke155 4y ago
Absolutely that is my plan. But I fear for my colleagues in other areas. A lot of them are not seeing the (now clearly) exponential improvement curve and they wouldn’t even take this discussion seriously. They’ll just throw it away off hand. But I’ve run my own business and I know what the pressures are. A lot of people working today will not be working in 10 years in my industry, period.

adamsmith143 4y ago

Learn how to use these models is the easiest answer. Prompt Engineering (getting a model to output what you actually want) is going to be something of an art form and I would expect it to be in demand.

kranke155 4y ago
I really don’t think the skillset moat will be comparable. It took me 10 years to go from young lad studying film at school to delivering content for major clients like Apple. Knowing my industry (profits squeeze everywhere) I think they’ll get young interns to do AI prompt engineering.

ijidak 4y ago

It won't be easy. But below are my thoughts: #1: Master these new tools #2: Build a workflow that incorporates these tools #3: Master storytelling #4: Master ad tracing and analytics #5: Get better at marketing yourself so that you stand out The market for your skillset may shrink, but I doubt it will disappear... Think about it this way... Humans in cheaper countries are already much more capable than any AI we've built. Yet, even now, There are practical limits on outsourcing. It's hard for me to see how this will be much different for creative work. It's one thing to casually look at images or videos, when there is no specific money-making ad in mind. But as soon as someone is spending thousands to run an ad campaign, just taking whatever the AI spits out is unlikely to be the real workflow. I guess I'm suggesting a more optimistic take... View it as a tool to learn and incorporate in your workflow I don't know if you gain much by stressing too much about being replaced. And I'm not even sure that's reality. I'm almost certain, most of the humans to lose their jobs will be people who either because of fear or stubbornness refuse to get better, refuse to incorporate these tools, and are thus unable to move up the value chain.

alcover 4y ago
Get better [...] so that you stand out Please bear with me but this kind of advice is often a bit puzzling to me. I suppose you don't know the person you're replying to, so I read your advice as a general one - useful to anyone in the parent's position. If you were close to her, it would make sense to help her 'stand out' in detriment - logically - to strangers in her field. But here you're kind of helping every reader stand out. I realise this comment is a bit vain. And I like the human touch of you helping a stranger.
- PinkMilkshake 4y ago
  I [...] don't [...] like [...] helping a stranger. That's not very nice. The world would be a better place if we helped strangers more.
  - ricardobeat 4y ago
    That's a good one, but if you read his comment thoroughly, it is about the illogicality of 'everyone standing out', not the 'get better' part.

odessacubbage 4y ago

i really think it's going to take much longer than people think for this technology to go from 'pretty good' to actually being able to meet a production standard of quality with little to no human involvement. at this point, cleaning up after an ai is still probably more labor intensive than simply using the cheatcodes that already exist for quick and cheap realism. i expect in the midterm, diffusion models will largely exist in the same space as game engines like unity and unreal where it's relatively easy for an illiterate like me to stay within the rails and throw a bunch of premade assets together but getting beyond NINTENDO HIRE THIS MAN! and the stock 'look' of the engine still takes a great deal of expertise. >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1Y_d_Lhp60 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1Y_d_Lhp60

victor9000 4y ago

Don't watch from the sidelines. Become adept at using these tools and use your experience to differentiate yourself from those entering the market.

karmasimida 4y ago

I think short advertisements would be affected most by this, it seems. But here is the catch, there is the same last mile problem for those AI models. Currently it feels like the model can achieve like 80%-90% what a trained human expert can do, but the last 10-20% would extra extra hard to reach human fidelity. It might take years, or it might never happen. That being said, I think anyone who doubts AI-assisted creative workflow is a fuzz is deadly wrong, anyone who refuses those shiny new tools, is likely to be eliminated by sheer market dynamics. They can't compete on the efficiency of it.

dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago

Adapt, it's what humans excel at. Instead of feeling threatened by the new tools, think about how you can use them to enable your work. One of the ironies* of these tools is that they only work because there is so much existing material they can be trained on. Absent that they wouldn't exist. That makes me think: why not think about how to train your own models than entail your own style? Is that practical, how can you make it work and how might you deploy that in your own work? Something that everyone is sticking their heads in their sand about is the real possibility that training models on copyrighted work is a copyright violation. I can't see how such a mechanical transformation of others' work is anything but. People accept violating one person's copyright is a thing but if you do it at scale it somehow isn't. * ironic because they seem creative but they create nothing by themselves, they merely "repackage" other people's creativity.

Thaxll 4y ago

It won't be ready anytime soon imo, looks impressive but who can use that? 512*512 of bad quality, weird looking AI with those moving part that you find everywhere in AI generated art etc ...

j_k_eter 4y ago

I first predicted this tech 5 years ago, but I thought it was 15 years out. What I just said is beginning to happen with pretty much everything. There's a third sentence, but if I write it 10 people will gainsay me. If I omit it, there's a better chance that 10 people will write it for me.

baron816 4y ago

Quite the opposite: you’re going to be in even higher demand and will make more money. Yes, it will be possible for one person to do the work of many, but that just means each person becomes more valuable. It’s also a law in economics that supply often drives demand, and that’s definitely the case in your field. Companies and individuals will want even more of what you want. It’s not like laundry detergent (one can only consume so much of that). There’s almost no limit to how much of what you supply that people could consume. The way I see it, your output could multiply 100 fold. You could build out large, complex projects that used to take massive teams all by yourself, and in a fraction of the time. Companies can than monetize that for consumers. AI is just a tool. Software engineers got rich when their tools got better. More engineers entered the field, and they just kept getting richer. That’s because the value of each engineer increased as they became more productive, and that value helped drive demand.

operator-name 4y ago

A 1 year timespan seems deeply optimistic. Creativity is still hugely important, as is communicating with clients. From what I see, these technologies have just lowered the bar for everyone to create someone, but creating something good still takes thought, time, effort and experience, especially in the advertising space. AI in the near term is never going to be able to translate client requirements either. The feedback cycle, iterations, managing client expectations, etc.

seydor 4y ago

the principle of least action says you will move to adjacent territory. either you become and advertiser, or you learn to make these models