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India's demographic outlook is far better than China's for the next two decades. I expect Apple is anticipating the resultant societal disruption and is trying
by causi 4y ago
India's demographic outlook is far better than China's for the next two decades. I expect Apple is anticipating the resultant societal disruption and is trying to get out ahead of it.
- kzrdude 4y agoIs a growing population better with the resource constraints that are arriving?
- causi 4y agoChina's issue is that people who are too old to be productive still need to be fed, clothed, housed, doctored. An inverted population pyramid is not a good thing, no matter what the resource situation is.
- bobkazamakis 4y agoah yes, an exclusively china issue.
- quasarsunnix 4y agoTo be fair to the post you're replying to China's demographic issues are more pronounced and likely to occur much sooner than most other large economies. The biggest issue being that they have never normalized immigration when they needed to like many western economies started to do in the 70s.
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 4y agoWell, they had a unique one-child policy for over three decades, and are only now starting to feel the ramifications. In China, the children are expected to take care of their parents in their twilight years, and the husband is typically expected to provide for the wife and kid(s), so you basically have 1 dude providing for 8 people: himself + his wife + 2 kids + his parents + his wife's parents. Any way you cut it, China is due for ~35 years of an absolutely horrendous labor participation rate. And unlike developed nations with declining birthrates, it's unlikely immigrants will be able to take up the slack, as extreme xenophobia is omnipresent in China and her population is absolutely massive.
- causi 4y agoNo, it's an issue in many countries. You will note, however, that this post regards China and India, and my comment was a comparison between the two. Pay attention.
- volkl48 4y agoIf you are looking for lots of prime-age workers to assemble stuff in a factory cheaply.....Yes? Which is better in terms of the well-being of the population and all that is a separate question.
- pkaye 4y agoIndia has a fertility rate of 2.2 which is just at replacement level.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoIts below replacement level now, according to the latest survey. That 2.2 number is from the 2015 survey.
- bergenty 4y agoIt’s under replacement as of 2020, probably even lower now.
- at-w 4y agoChina has been below 2.2 in 1990 and has remained well below that since, while continuing to have a growing population. If you're looking even three or four decades ahead it's not a huge problem for India.
- BurningFrog 4y agoHumans and their minds are the greatest resource of all.
- sbaiddn 4y agoThe world's population's fertility is falling and will probably go bellow replacement soon. That takes care of the resource problem. So if one subset has a large fertility they eventually inherit the Earth since the neighboring countries will be empty, or will have changed their fertility course.
- bergenty 4y agoIndia’s birthdate is under replacement rate as of 2020. Doesn’t that mean the population is no longer growing?
- dis-sys 4y ago> India's demographic outlook is far better than China's for the next two decades. this is pretty much a polite way of saying indians are dying much younger while giving birth to more.
- bergenty 4y agoNot by much, the age expectancy is 70 vs 76
- eldaisfish 4y agoWhat use is a large population that is poorly educated and financially constrained? China's forays on the world stage are because of money and its increasingly wealthy, educated population.
- ctrbg 4y ago> China's forays on the world stage are because of money and its increasingly wealthy, educated population. That's a very reductionist point of view which glosses over history.
- sfeqcq 4y ago> What use is a large population that is poorly educated and financially constrained? Sounds like China in the 1980s, when Apple first began manufacturing in China...
- AnAfrican 4y agoChina's population in the 1980 was poor but was much better educated than most countries at the same GDP level. And a larger part of the population got basic education. This is important when you have to read instructions. (meanwhile India's literacy rate is at the level of a middle of pack African country)
- sfeqcq 4y ago“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” :)
- MangoCoffee 4y ago>China's forays on the world stage are because of money and its increasingly wealthy, educated population. Deng Xiaoping started Chinese economic reform. You might want to check out China before Deng. its a poorly educated and financially constrained country. Do you need an educated labor force to assemble iPhone?
- 4y ago
- dirtyid 4y agoIndian demographics is FAR worse than China's going forward. Her demographic divident is mostly done / wasted - the few affluent and educated states are aging out, massively overpopulated, under-educated and poor states are younger but have little prospects with atrocious labour particapation rate. That's a far bigger recipe for disaster than PRC who at ~5x per capita wealth and massive savings rate to manage demographic transition. Reality is, India demographics is less blessing and more curse, she has to tackle a far larger overpopulation crisis with fewer resources and opportunities. Her economic growth / ability to generate new jobs has rarely kept up with population growth, and with automation, offshoring spreading out to smaller countries, there won't be same amount of manufacturing jobs to elevate India as it did PRC. India looks to be destined to get old while staying lower middle-income VS PRC who will at least enter high income. And once the old start dying in PRC , there will be huge amounts of generational wealth transfers that analysts predict will increase / sustain highend consumption. What Apple is really anticipating is being squeezed out due to geopolitics and rise in domestic PRC luxury brands. That said, still India has 1.4B people and aggressive tariff policies to encourage local assembly / sales, but in terms of market power, there will be more high income PRC nationals vs Indians for Apple tax tier products, and that won't meaningfully converge unless India goes all in on income disparity.
- bamboozled 4y agoWhy are you referring to India using human pronouns ? He/her? You can just say “India”.
- mperham 4y agoApproximately 80% of the planet does not speak English at all. Be kind.
- bamboozled 4y agoI speak multiple languages and I was asking a question, not trying to be unkind. I asked the question because their English seemed so good to me that it seemed intentional, it also seemed unusual.
- seydor 4y agoafrica's is even 'better' . More people doesnt mean better