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> this are locked into local minimum Merely having statistics won't lead you to local optima, it's the incentive structure. Public companies need to have a pos
by ReaLNero 4y ago
> this are locked into local minimum
Merely having statistics won't lead you to local optima, it's the incentive structure. Public companies need to have a positive second derivative on their revenue, which trickles down to PMs and directors doing anything in their power to improve the quarterly numbers at long-term costs.
- criddell 4y ago> Public companies need to have a positive second derivative on their revenue I don't think that's true. In fact I don't think very many public companies have accelerating revenue.
- wlesieutre 4y agoYeah that's more of a startup mentality where you're trying to prove to your next round of investors that your growth is going to be 10x then 100x then 1000x and will then eat an entire industry. If someone's buying Meta stock at this point it's pretty obviously not on an infinite growth trajectory.
- bombcar 4y agoI suspect they're still pretending it has growth left; once it's clear that they DO NOT have much growth left, the stock will slowly settle to a "reasonable" p/e. Or suddenly plummet to one, who knows.
- orangepurple 4y ago> the stock will slowly settle to a "reasonable" p/e Which law of physics is this the result of?
- bombcar 4y agoIf there’s no growth forecasted investors are less likely to bid the stock up, as other investments may do better. Note that “reasonable” may not be Buffet’s desired p/e.
- orangepurple 4y agoI never heard of this casino house rule
- reducesuffering 4y agoYou mean like a P/E of 11.6 while the rest of the total US market is 20? Ya I'll take those almost 2x earnings.