5 ms·

> getting into a car accident is north of 1% 1% of what?

MonkeyClub 4y ago
Of the trips you’ll have. Or “one in a hundred”. It means that in out of a hundred trips, it’s pretty certain one will involve an accident.
- kleinsch 4y ago
  Which is completely fabricated. Quick Google search has 1/366 for every 1000 miles you drive. https://ehlinelaw.com/blog/odds-of-being-injured-car-accident https://ehlinelaw.com/blog/odds-of-being-injured-car-acciden...
  - z2h-a6n 4y ago
    Note: marcinzim was referring to the probability of "getting into an accident". It's not clear what the law firm you link is referring to since their source doesn't cite their sources properly, but it looks like they might have been referring to the probability of being injured in a car accident. Even so, I'm not sure where they get their numbers or exactly what the numbers are supposed to refer to. See the sibling comments for some references to statistics that are very different from those that the law firm seems to have gotten from an insurance company.
- 8jef 4y ago
  If you're a mediocre to average inexperienced driver, think one in ten. Well trained and experienced drivers don't crash. Two rules for anyone reading: [1]: never, ever, be in the way of anyone - don't ever be an obstacle to traffic flow; [2]: if you abide to [1], consider you're the only sain person on the road who really knows how to drive, all others don't - everyone around is a danger to you, so be hyper vigilant, always.
  - MonkeyClub 4y ago
    Solid advice, which has gotten me out of more than one right spot. In general, be polite and out of the way (both on the road and in life), and you’ll avoid most scratches and crashes. And presuming everyone (else) is probably nuts doesn’t hurt either :)
- alwa 4y ago
  Are you sure? If I drive once a day, to and from a single place, that suggests I’m involved in (365*2/100)= 7 car accidents a year. That seems high, no? Per a quick glance at NHTSA’s summary figures [1] I wonder if the previous poster is referring to the “1000 injured per 100,000 drivers” figure. Which divides out to 1% I guess, a little more in past years. But that’s a little awkward to express in plain language, in that one wreck can injure lots of people, and people can get injured who are not drivers (drivers comprise around half of the injuries, it looks like, from higher up in the table). Although the total number of crashes (including the large majority that don’t involve injuries) still looks pretty wild as a proportion of licensed drivers. If I were trying to raise concern about cars, I’d point to that ratio of 1 collision (of any sort) for every 43 licensed drivers every year. [1] https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf
  - hedora 4y ago
    Assuming each collision involves two parties, 1 in 43 means about 1 in 21 people are driving during a collision each year. That seems about right. It’s one (probably minor) car accident per driver every 20 years.
  - z2h-a6n 4y ago
    > Are you sure? If I drive once a day, to and from a single place, that suggests I’m involved in (365*2/100)= 7 car accidents a year. That seems high, no? That's partially because MonkeyClub didn't do the math correctly. If the accident rate is really 1% of trips (which seems doubtful), there is a 99% chance of an accident free trip, a (99%)^N chance of N accident free trips, and a 1 - (99%)^N chance of one or more accidents occurring in N trips. For N = 100, this is 63%, and for N = 365*2 this is 99.9%. As you mention, the data from the NHTSA seem to indicate a much lower accident/injury rate. Based on this data from the NHTSA [0], and going back to 2018 to avoid any pandemic-related effects on the statistics, it looks like there was on average only 1 (police-reported) crash per 481 thousand vehicle-miles, or one crash involving an injury or fatality per 1.7 million vehicle-miles. [0] https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf, other formats and more data available here: https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm
- sowbug 4y ago
  Probability pedant here. This is not entirely incorrect, at least to the extent it suggests that there's a matching relationship between the two 100s in 1/100 chance and 100 trials. If there is a 1% chance of something happening during an independent event, then to calculate the probability of it happening at least once across N events, you must use the formula 100% - 99%^N, where the 99% was derived from 100% minus the "1% chance" in the original scenario. So a 1% chance across 100 trials is 63.4% likely to happen. Look up the Birthday Paradox for more.

Of the trips you’ll have. Or “one in a hundred”. It means that in out of a hundred trips, it’s pretty certain one will involve an accident.

kleinsch 4y ago
Which is completely fabricated. Quick Google search has 1/366 for every 1000 miles you drive. https://ehlinelaw.com/blog/odds-of-being-injured-car-accident https://ehlinelaw.com/blog/odds-of-being-injured-car-acciden...
- z2h-a6n 4y ago
  Note: marcinzim was referring to the probability of "getting into an accident". It's not clear what the law firm you link is referring to since their source doesn't cite their sources properly, but it looks like they might have been referring to the probability of being injured in a car accident. Even so, I'm not sure where they get their numbers or exactly what the numbers are supposed to refer to. See the sibling comments for some references to statistics that are very different from those that the law firm seems to have gotten from an insurance company.
8jef 4y ago
If you're a mediocre to average inexperienced driver, think one in ten. Well trained and experienced drivers don't crash. Two rules for anyone reading: [1]: never, ever, be in the way of anyone - don't ever be an obstacle to traffic flow; [2]: if you abide to [1], consider you're the only sain person on the road who really knows how to drive, all others don't - everyone around is a danger to you, so be hyper vigilant, always.
- MonkeyClub 4y ago
  Solid advice, which has gotten me out of more than one right spot. In general, be polite and out of the way (both on the road and in life), and you’ll avoid most scratches and crashes. And presuming everyone (else) is probably nuts doesn’t hurt either :)
alwa 4y ago
Are you sure? If I drive once a day, to and from a single place, that suggests I’m involved in (365*2/100)= 7 car accidents a year. That seems high, no? Per a quick glance at NHTSA’s summary figures [1] I wonder if the previous poster is referring to the “1000 injured per 100,000 drivers” figure. Which divides out to 1% I guess, a little more in past years. But that’s a little awkward to express in plain language, in that one wreck can injure lots of people, and people can get injured who are not drivers (drivers comprise around half of the injuries, it looks like, from higher up in the table). Although the total number of crashes (including the large majority that don’t involve injuries) still looks pretty wild as a proportion of licensed drivers. If I were trying to raise concern about cars, I’d point to that ratio of 1 collision (of any sort) for every 43 licensed drivers every year. [1] https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf
- hedora 4y ago
  Assuming each collision involves two parties, 1 in 43 means about 1 in 21 people are driving during a collision each year. That seems about right. It’s one (probably minor) car accident per driver every 20 years.
- z2h-a6n 4y ago
  > Are you sure? If I drive once a day, to and from a single place, that suggests I’m involved in (365*2/100)= 7 car accidents a year. That seems high, no? That's partially because MonkeyClub didn't do the math correctly. If the accident rate is really 1% of trips (which seems doubtful), there is a 99% chance of an accident free trip, a (99%)^N chance of N accident free trips, and a 1 - (99%)^N chance of one or more accidents occurring in N trips. For N = 100, this is 63%, and for N = 365*2 this is 99.9%. As you mention, the data from the NHTSA seem to indicate a much lower accident/injury rate. Based on this data from the NHTSA [0], and going back to 2018 to avoid any pandemic-related effects on the statistics, it looks like there was on average only 1 (police-reported) crash per 481 thousand vehicle-miles, or one crash involving an injury or fatality per 1.7 million vehicle-miles. [0] https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf, other formats and more data available here: https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm
sowbug 4y ago
Probability pedant here. This is not entirely incorrect, at least to the extent it suggests that there's a matching relationship between the two 100s in 1/100 chance and 100 trials. If there is a 1% chance of something happening during an independent event, then to calculate the probability of it happening at least once across N events, you must use the formula 100% - 99%^N, where the 99% was derived from 100% minus the "1% chance" in the original scenario. So a 1% chance across 100 trials is 63.4% likely to happen. Look up the Birthday Paradox for more.