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Have no clue why this is being downvoted... I agree. You could have used nicer words though.
by baxtr 4y ago
Have no clue why this is being downvoted... I agree. You could have used nicer words though.
- hef19898 4y agoBecause it such a hindsight 20/20 comment providing an easy answer to a complex question, all by providing an easy scapegoat. So, IMHO, it is shallow, and bad for HN standards, comment.
- baxtr 4y agoDidn't people, even Trump, say before that it is a bad idea to have only a single provider for a very important resource?
- hef19898 4y agoAnd, mind you, we don't have an availability problem, we have a price problem. One that is caused by Russia's refusal to sell gas to Europe, one that hurts energy intensive industries at a time energy markets in general are disturbed to unrelated reasons, right after a pandemic that disrupted supply chains in the middle of global inflation. But yeah, Germany's refusal to buy gas from the US after Trump said they should is the root cause of all of that.
- baxtr 4y agoAren't availability and price correlated?
- hef19898 4y agoSure, so? Prices are back to pre war levels apparently and gas kept flowing the whole time. It was simply more expensive in the last months.
- baxtr 4y agoOh yes, sure. But of course the entire switch created a lot of stress, uncertainty, anxiety and so on. It is impossible to measure the real costs of that switching. But I bet they were very high. Having a basis, where one supplier/resource never accounts for more than let's say 20% makes a system much more resilient. I think it is "just" simple math, that was ignored before because it was cheap and easy at the time.
- baxtr 4y agoBtw: it’s even worse than that. The perceived dependency allowed Russia to think that they can get away… they thought they could blackmail the West.
- croes 4y agoDidn't Trump prevent other providers by killing the Iran deal? One could have so nicely pitted Russia against Iran. But Trump wanted to sell US oil
- timeon 4y agoI wonder if people are going to be this 'clever' about 'made in china' when shit will hit the fan. But I know that Europe is easier target in Anglo-sphere.
- throwaway894345 4y agoI don’t buy this at all. What’s complex about weaning the continent off of Russian energy 8 years ago rather than all at once in a few years’ time? How is “dependence on Russian energy” a scapegoat? And the “hindsight is 20/20” action would have been arming Ukraine to the hilt 8 years ago—weaning off of Russian energy requires no such hindsight.
- hef19898 4y agoYou are aware that the Russian invasion was stopped, and Russia is being driven back? That was, oartly, due to weapons deliveries from the West and NATO, which includes all major EU countries. Keeping gas from Russia flowing kept a door open for Putin and prevented escalation. Which, in my book, are good things. Now Europe is getting gas from other souces, albeit more expensive ones. And the EU alone is delivering 2.5 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine. Once this war is over, I am all for normalized relations with Russia, because those make long term peace easier. Propably not worling under a Russian leadership that intentionally choose war.
- throwaway894345 4y ago> You are aware that the Russian invasion was stopped, and Russia is being driven back? That was, oartly, due to weapons deliveries from the West and NATO, which includes all major EU countries. Yes, I am aware. I didn't contend that Europe isn't doing anything to resist Russia, I'm alleging that increasing energy dependence on Russia was a mistake, especially after the 2014 invasion. > Keeping gas from Russia flowing kept a door open for Putin and prevented escalation. Big "citation needed" here. As far as I can tell, "keeping gas flowing" (to the extent that it is) is directly paying for the war (notably Russian gas is bought and paid for in Rubles, helping to prop up the Ruble's value)--quite the opposite of "preventing escalation".
- the_third_wave 4y agoBeing a European (Dutchman living in Sweden) I have the privilege of speaking from my lived experience (right?) so... It is not as if there were no warning signs, nor warnings. No, this is really the effect of a myopic view on energy production and consumption pushed mostly by the "green" parties, movement and lobby. The main culprit here is Germany with their "green" politicians insisting on closing nuclear power plants as if this were some religious edict but many other European countries as well as the EU are to blame for this lack of insight.
- hef19898 4y agoGas accounts for 15% of Germanies electricity production, it was a consevative government, CDU-led, that implemented the last nuclear exit plans. It is the Greens that kept nuclear plants running until next year. It is the Greens that push for more military aid for Ukraine, it is a Green Minister who is getting gas reservoirs filled up faster than planned. As another commenter pointed out, gas prices are back to pre war levels by now. Context matters, nothing haooens in a vacuum.
- the_third_wave 4y agoThe problem in Germany is not just the reliance on natural gas but the removal of the reliable base load due to policy - nuclear and coal - and now out of necessity - natural gas. Wind and solar can not provide the base load without sufficient storage which, as of yet, is unavailable. This has left Germany without a reliable base load infrastructure and with that dependent on imports plus the remaining base load infrastructure.
- hef19898 4y agoWhen was the last blackout in Germany that was not caused by a natural disaster? I cannot remember any in the last decades. And electricity for industrial customers was historically among the lower ones in Europe, consumer pruces are more expensive due to the way Germany, again implemented by conservative governments, financed the build out of renewables. And despite all the issues in thr last months, there were no blackouts, gas kept coming in and industry carried on.