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The risk of my home catching on fire each year due to any electrical issue is 0.04%. The risk of me dying or being injured due to such an issue is 0.00004%. Th

The risk of my home catching on fire each year due to any electrical issue is 0.04%. The risk of me dying or being injured due to such an issue is 0.00004%. That includes not just home electronics but every possible wiring and electrical insanity. For comparison, my risk of getting into a car accident is north of 1% and the risk of dying in a car accident is around 0.02%. So in other words compared to all the other risks out there home electronics are very safe.

pennaMan 4y ago
I would like to know where you got the hat you are pulling those numbers out of
- marcinzm 4y ago
  You're free to Google the numbers yourself or provide your own rather than starting with insults. For the record the fire numbers are roughly the same between the ESFI, NFPA and FEMA.
FeepingCreature 4y ago
Assume you have 30 electrical devices in operation. Assume the cost of your house is $1mil. Then avoiding that fire should be worth ~$13 per device. However, the device manufacturer would not need to bear that cost, meaning it goes unpaid.
- marcinzm 4y ago
  You'd be correct if every house fire totaled the property and the average house price was a million. It seems house fires cause $1.5billion in property damage per year in the US and there are 360k of them. Assuming electrical fires are twice as damaging as the average fire we end up with a cost of $10k per fire. That works out to around 15 cents per electronic device in your example. Even that is a high estimate since I believe only a minority of electrical fires are due to consumer electronics (versus things like faulty or old wiring).
  - jonhohle 4y ago
    Narrator : A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one. Woman on Plane : Are there a lot of these kinds of accidents? Narrator : You wouldn't believe. Woman on Plane : Which car company do you work for? Narrator : A major one.
    - com2kid 4y ago
      Meanwhile in reality, cars undergo multiple recalls every year to fix a myriad of issues. Reputational damage is so high from consumer deaths now days, the balance sheet comes out in favor of fixing issues.
      - toast0 4y ago
        Cost of settlements went way up too.
      - jack_pp 4y ago
        replace cars with drugs and it's the same old story
    - MonkeyClub 4y ago
      The first rule of recalls is we don’t talk about recalls.
    - therealjumbo 4y ago
      Do you have inside knowledge of how the recalls are done? It's a lot more complicated than that: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/05/04/the-engineers-lament https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/05/04/the-engineers-... Even to the point where an actual horrific accident doesn't necessarily mean that vehicle is any more dangerous than other vehicles on the road, they just don't have that exact failure mode but do kill people nonetheless. And no amount of money is going to buy perfect safety either. As always, engineering is all about tradeoffs, no way around it. Car companies have dropped the ball on safety in several cases, but just because somebody died, doesn't mean they did.
dbttdft 4y ago
They're still broken. Not an argument.
- nixpulvis 4y ago
  See that's a "feature" though. Now you need to buy another device. There's not as large of an incentive for product durability and repairability today as there was or should be.
- tacker2000 4y ago
  Who defines broken? Thats a feature, not a bug.
sicp-enjoyer 4y ago
> getting into a car accident is north of 1% 1% of what?
- MonkeyClub 4y ago
  Of the trips you’ll have. Or “one in a hundred”. It means that in out of a hundred trips, it’s pretty certain one will involve an accident.
  - kleinsch 4y ago
    Which is completely fabricated. Quick Google search has 1/366 for every 1000 miles you drive. https://ehlinelaw.com/blog/odds-of-being-injured-car-accident https://ehlinelaw.com/blog/odds-of-being-injured-car-acciden...
    - z2h-a6n 4y ago
      Note: marcinzim was referring to the probability of "getting into an accident". It's not clear what the law firm you link is referring to since their source doesn't cite their sources properly, but it looks like they might have been referring to the probability of being injured in a car accident. Even so, I'm not sure where they get their numbers or exactly what the numbers are supposed to refer to. See the sibling comments for some references to statistics that are very different from those that the law firm seems to have gotten from an insurance company.
  - 8jef 4y ago
    If you're a mediocre to average inexperienced driver, think one in ten. Well trained and experienced drivers don't crash. Two rules for anyone reading: [1]: never, ever, be in the way of anyone - don't ever be an obstacle to traffic flow; [2]: if you abide to [1], consider you're the only sain person on the road who really knows how to drive, all others don't - everyone around is a danger to you, so be hyper vigilant, always.
    - MonkeyClub 4y ago
MonkeyClub 4y ago
What is more, these are all things that would befall _you_, rather than the manufacturer, so as GP said, it’s A-OK.
kbelder 4y ago
>The risk of my home catching on fire each year due to any electrical issue is 0.04%. The risk of me dying or being injured due to such an issue is 0.00004%. You mean you'll only die or get injured in one out of a thousand home fires? That seems really low. But I'm picking nits.

pennaMan 4y ago

I would like to know where you got the hat you are pulling those numbers out of

marcinzm 4y ago
You're free to Google the numbers yourself or provide your own rather than starting with insults. For the record the fire numbers are roughly the same between the ESFI, NFPA and FEMA.

FeepingCreature 4y ago

Assume you have 30 electrical devices in operation. Assume the cost of your house is $1mil. Then avoiding that fire should be worth ~$13 per device. However, the device manufacturer would not need to bear that cost, meaning it goes unpaid.

marcinzm 4y ago
You'd be correct if every house fire totaled the property and the average house price was a million. It seems house fires cause $1.5billion in property damage per year in the US and there are 360k of them. Assuming electrical fires are twice as damaging as the average fire we end up with a cost of $10k per fire. That works out to around 15 cents per electronic device in your example. Even that is a high estimate since I believe only a minority of electrical fires are due to consumer electronics (versus things like faulty or old wiring).
- jonhohle 4y ago
  Narrator : A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one. Woman on Plane : Are there a lot of these kinds of accidents? Narrator : You wouldn't believe. Woman on Plane : Which car company do you work for? Narrator : A major one.
  - com2kid 4y ago
    Meanwhile in reality, cars undergo multiple recalls every year to fix a myriad of issues. Reputational damage is so high from consumer deaths now days, the balance sheet comes out in favor of fixing issues.
    - toast0 4y ago
      Cost of settlements went way up too.
    - jack_pp 4y ago
      replace cars with drugs and it's the same old story
  - MonkeyClub 4y ago
    The first rule of recalls is we don’t talk about recalls.
  - therealjumbo 4y ago
    Do you have inside knowledge of how the recalls are done? It's a lot more complicated than that: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/05/04/the-engineers-lament https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/05/04/the-engineers-... Even to the point where an actual horrific accident doesn't necessarily mean that vehicle is any more dangerous than other vehicles on the road, they just don't have that exact failure mode but do kill people nonetheless. And no amount of money is going to buy perfect safety either. As always, engineering is all about tradeoffs, no way around it. Car companies have dropped the ball on safety in several cases, but just because somebody died, doesn't mean they did.

dbttdft 4y ago

They're still broken. Not an argument.

nixpulvis 4y ago
See that's a "feature" though. Now you need to buy another device. There's not as large of an incentive for product durability and repairability today as there was or should be.
tacker2000 4y ago
Who defines broken? Thats a feature, not a bug.

sicp-enjoyer 4y ago

> getting into a car accident is north of 1% 1% of what?

MonkeyClub 4y ago
Of the trips you’ll have. Or “one in a hundred”. It means that in out of a hundred trips, it’s pretty certain one will involve an accident.
- kleinsch 4y ago
  Which is completely fabricated. Quick Google search has 1/366 for every 1000 miles you drive. https://ehlinelaw.com/blog/odds-of-being-injured-car-accident https://ehlinelaw.com/blog/odds-of-being-injured-car-acciden...
  - z2h-a6n 4y ago
    Note: marcinzim was referring to the probability of "getting into an accident". It's not clear what the law firm you link is referring to since their source doesn't cite their sources properly, but it looks like they might have been referring to the probability of being injured in a car accident. Even so, I'm not sure where they get their numbers or exactly what the numbers are supposed to refer to. See the sibling comments for some references to statistics that are very different from those that the law firm seems to have gotten from an insurance company.
- 8jef 4y ago
  If you're a mediocre to average inexperienced driver, think one in ten. Well trained and experienced drivers don't crash. Two rules for anyone reading: [1]: never, ever, be in the way of anyone - don't ever be an obstacle to traffic flow; [2]: if you abide to [1], consider you're the only sain person on the road who really knows how to drive, all others don't - everyone around is a danger to you, so be hyper vigilant, always.
  - MonkeyClub 4y ago

MonkeyClub 4y ago

What is more, these are all things that would befall _you_, rather than the manufacturer, so as GP said, it’s A-OK.

kbelder 4y ago

>The risk of my home catching on fire each year due to any electrical issue is 0.04%. The risk of me dying or being injured due to such an issue is 0.00004%. You mean you'll only die or get injured in one out of a thousand home fires? That seems really low. But I'm picking nits.