4 ms·

He might be demonstrating he's willing to use them and not talking empty words.

by bitL 4y ago

nyokodo 4y ago
If he uses them then the other powers will need to severely hurt Russia directly otherwise they’d be encouraging Pakistan or India to exchange nukes, North Korea on the south or on Japan, or China on Taiwan or anyone. This would cause WWIII sooner or later so best to risk it sooner by punishing Russia to discourage the guarantee of it later. Basically, the use of nukes at all no matter what kind is a violation of MAD. If Putin wants to do that then we’d need to be back to thinking he’s suicidal, which we don’t. He wants us to give in so he can salami tactic his way into Poland, Moldova, and the Baltic states which would also lead to WWIII so we might as well keep helping the Ukrainians and steer down Putin back to the pre-2014 Russian border because if that doesn’t work then it’s WWIII anyway.
- bitL 4y ago
  I don't think he cares about conquering Poland, he's not even interested in conquering Western Ukraine (that used to be Poland before WW2). If there is any nuke targeted at a NATO country I bet the first will be Poland just to make the rest of NATO think through if Poland is worth full nuclear war or not. Russia has the escalate-deescalate doctrine anyway. Nobody is going to punish Russia militarily, that would be a suicide for any country that would attempt it. The only way out of this mess is diplomacy and not further escalation from both sides as we see. I think the current world "leaders" lost their minds already and are far from statesmen of old that were willing to compromise on their objectives in order to prevent the unthinkable.
  - nyokodo 4y ago
    > I don't think he cares about conquering Poland. he's not even interested in conquering Western Ukraine (that used to be Poland before WW2). Who’s buying that line after columns of Russian troops tried to blitzkrieg Kyiv earlier in the war? Not to mention that eastern Ukraine is useless to Russia from a strategic perspective. They need to secure the Polish gap, the entirety of the Carpathian Mountains down to the Bessarabian gap, and across to the Baltic coast through the Baltic States. That shrinks the Russian border down to a limited and highly defensible size. Putin has long bemoaned that Russia gave all that up when the Soviet Union split up.
- chasd00 4y ago
  How would Putin even deploy nukes on the battlefield? Are their any targets large enough to warrant a tactical nuke strike? I don’t see it increasing his chances of winning. He could hit Kiev with strategic nukes I guess but he dooms all of Russia no matter what. Really, his nukes are useless here. He gains nothing by using them and risks everything.
  - bitL 4y ago
    Tactical nukes are 1-7x Hiroshima so they are by no means small ones. One can demolish a large city. Strategic nukes are for taking down whole countries at once.

He might be demonstrating he's willing to use them and not talking empty words.

by bitL 4y ago

He might be demonstrating he's willing to use them and not talking empty words.

If he uses them then the other powers will need to severely hurt Russia directly otherwise they’d be encouraging Pakistan or India to exchange nukes, North Korea on the south or on Japan, or China on Taiwan or anyone. This would cause WWIII sooner or later so best to risk it sooner by punishing Russia to discourage the guarantee of it later. Basically, the use of nukes at all no matter what kind is a violation of MAD. If Putin wants to do that then we’d need to be back to thinking he’s suicidal, which we don’t. He wants us to give in so he can salami tactic his way into Poland, Moldova, and the Baltic states which would also lead to WWIII so we might as well keep helping the Ukrainians and steer down Putin back to the pre-2014 Russian border because if that doesn’t work then it’s WWIII anyway.

bitL 4y ago
I don't think he cares about conquering Poland, he's not even interested in conquering Western Ukraine (that used to be Poland before WW2). If there is any nuke targeted at a NATO country I bet the first will be Poland just to make the rest of NATO think through if Poland is worth full nuclear war or not. Russia has the escalate-deescalate doctrine anyway. Nobody is going to punish Russia militarily, that would be a suicide for any country that would attempt it. The only way out of this mess is diplomacy and not further escalation from both sides as we see. I think the current world "leaders" lost their minds already and are far from statesmen of old that were willing to compromise on their objectives in order to prevent the unthinkable.
- nyokodo 4y ago
  > I don't think he cares about conquering Poland. he's not even interested in conquering Western Ukraine (that used to be Poland before WW2). Who’s buying that line after columns of Russian troops tried to blitzkrieg Kyiv earlier in the war? Not to mention that eastern Ukraine is useless to Russia from a strategic perspective. They need to secure the Polish gap, the entirety of the Carpathian Mountains down to the Bessarabian gap, and across to the Baltic coast through the Baltic States. That shrinks the Russian border down to a limited and highly defensible size. Putin has long bemoaned that Russia gave all that up when the Soviet Union split up.
chasd00 4y ago
How would Putin even deploy nukes on the battlefield? Are their any targets large enough to warrant a tactical nuke strike? I don’t see it increasing his chances of winning. He could hit Kiev with strategic nukes I guess but he dooms all of Russia no matter what. Really, his nukes are useless here. He gains nothing by using them and risks everything.
- bitL 4y ago
  Tactical nukes are 1-7x Hiroshima so they are by no means small ones. One can demolish a large city. Strategic nukes are for taking down whole countries at once.