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Well if not now, then when? Putin is literally moving his nuclear arsenal into position to turn Ukraine into waste and says he's not bluffing.

IAmGraydon 4y ago
The nuclear train article that has been going around has been debunked by none other than the Director of the CIA.
- parker_mountain 4y ago
  Prominent news organizations, such as CBS and Newsweek, have reported on the nuclear train (albeit, referring to it as "not independently verified"). If you're going to claim that it was debunked by the Director of the CIA, you're going to need to provide a link, please - ideally to a credible news organization or the CIA itself. I did a quick google and it came up with nothing, so it's very possible I'm not searching in the right way.
  - gruez 4y ago
    > Prominent news organizations, such as CBS and Newsweek, have reported on the nuclear train (albeit, referring to it as "independently verified"). I'm not sure what articles you're referring to, but the first CBS article I found[1] says it could not be "independently verified". >A video shared online of a train in Russia carrying equipment belonging to a Russian military unit that handles nuclear weapons should be taken as a message to the West, a military analyst says. The video, which a U.S. official told CBS News could not be independently confirmed, shows an armored personnel carrier with a cannon attached, as well as another vehicle belonging to the unit, being transported on the train, the analyst said. The newsweek article[2] doesn't mention any sort of verification, and is repeating whatever the polish military analyst says. [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-nuclear-weapons-train-video/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-nuclear-weapons-train-vi... [2] https://www.newsweek.com/nukes-nuclear-weapon-train-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-fear-attack-latest-update-1748798 https://www.newsweek.com/nukes-nuclear-weapon-train-russia-u...
    - IAmGraydon 4y ago
      Thank you. People like the above poster are justifiably scared, but it's important to maintain rationality in times like these instead of going into hyper-vigilance mode and seeing every crazy Twitter post as confirmation of the apocalypse.
  - IAmGraydon 4y ago
    The entire world is looking for a reason to freak out, so they're seeing big, scary shapes in the clouds. Most mass media would love to see the masses freak out, so the problem is exacerbated. The entire train claim came from some nobody in Poland who had no idea about the context of what they were looking at. This train track is commonly active, and even more so during Russia's nuclear training exercises that occur every autumn. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6605262 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6605262 >"We don't see any practical evidence today in the U.S. intelligence community that he's moving closer to actual use, that there's an imminent threat of using tactical nuclear weapons," CIA director William Burns told CBS News Monday. >"What we have to do is take it very seriously, watch for signs of actual preparations." The nuclear train story came out Sunday and this quote is from Bill Burns on Monday.
    - parker_mountain 4y ago
      >"We don't see any practical evidence today in the U.S. intelligence community that he's moving closer to actual use, that there's an imminent threat of using tactical nuclear weapons," CIA director William Burns told CBS News Monday. is different than "that is not a train used by the nuclear organization, they are not moving weapons, etc " He specifically does not address the claim. Which to me, is a red flag of lying by omission. Personally, I never took the initial story super seriously, and view articles like this suspiciously.
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    Only slightly off topic but Newsweek was purchased by a weird Korean cult similar in structure to Scientology, so you should move them off your "prominent news org" mental map. Several of the higher ups at the org are under federal indictment and the current owner/operator who came in with the cult seems to be a bit of a psychopath. https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/03/newsweek-ibt-olivet-david-jang/ https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/03/newsweek-ibt-olive...
- pGuitar 4y ago
  lol, who believes the CIA? AKA the Lying agency....
  - IAmGraydon 4y ago
    Ahh a conspiracy theorist. You must know all of their dark plans that the sheeple could never see. How original of you. The world definitely needs more people like you.
    - pGuitar 4y ago
doodlesdev 4y ago
- IAmGraydon 4y ago
  This is the kind of low effort garbage reply that belongs on Reddit.
pshc 4y ago
Person who is definitely not bluffing: “I’m not bluffing.”
rsuelzer 4y ago
The west makes the critical mistake of seeing this conflict as about Ukraine. Putin sees the war as a single front in a much larger pending conflict with the west. He firmly believes this conflict must occur for Russia to have a place in the future geopolitical order 100 years from now. In his mind, there is no distinction, or tactical advantage, between using a nuclear weapon in Poland versus Ukraine. I argue, Putin is far more likely to use a nuclear weapon against a NATO target in a Baltic state than use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. A nuclear attack on a Baltic state would be far more palatable to the Russian people versus using a nuclear weapon against people who are viewed as "Russian". More importantly, he thinks about history in terms of decades and centuries. Using a nuclear weapon within what he considers Russian territory is untenable in the broad historical arc he has created.
- throw_nbvc1234 4y ago
  Launching a nuke only makes sense if Putin just wants to try and end the world? A tactical nuke isn't likely to change the strategic direction of the war, it's just escalation for the sake of escalation. He's already losing the war. Launching a nuke in Ukraine or NATO does not mean that NATO respond with nukes. They can respond with conventional weapons and end the war within a week. Plus there's a non-zero chance that the chain of command refuses to carry out the order and undermines all internal authority that Putin has.
  - rsuelzer 4y ago
    I agree, NATO will never respond with nukes, even if a nuke is launched directly into NATO territory. NATO understands this is a 0 sum outcome. And it's not needed. I think the risk is that those around Putin (regime), and Putin himself to an extent, believe that a world without Russia is not worth having. And to the regime, Putin is Russia and Russia is Putin. The question is, if there is a 100% chance that should he lose this conflict that his regime will collapse and a 99% chance that Russia could survive a nuclear war on equal footing with the west which will he choose? Even a full scale nuclear war will not end the world, many millions, likely billions will survive. It will just be nothing like the world before.
goldcd 4y ago
They key to bluffing, is to not say you're bluffing.

IAmGraydon 4y ago

The nuclear train article that has been going around has been debunked by none other than the Director of the CIA.

parker_mountain 4y ago
Prominent news organizations, such as CBS and Newsweek, have reported on the nuclear train (albeit, referring to it as "not independently verified"). If you're going to claim that it was debunked by the Director of the CIA, you're going to need to provide a link, please - ideally to a credible news organization or the CIA itself. I did a quick google and it came up with nothing, so it's very possible I'm not searching in the right way.
- gruez 4y ago
  > Prominent news organizations, such as CBS and Newsweek, have reported on the nuclear train (albeit, referring to it as "independently verified"). I'm not sure what articles you're referring to, but the first CBS article I found[1] says it could not be "independently verified". >A video shared online of a train in Russia carrying equipment belonging to a Russian military unit that handles nuclear weapons should be taken as a message to the West, a military analyst says. The video, which a U.S. official told CBS News could not be independently confirmed, shows an armored personnel carrier with a cannon attached, as well as another vehicle belonging to the unit, being transported on the train, the analyst said. The newsweek article[2] doesn't mention any sort of verification, and is repeating whatever the polish military analyst says. [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-nuclear-weapons-train-video/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-nuclear-weapons-train-vi... [2] https://www.newsweek.com/nukes-nuclear-weapon-train-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-fear-attack-latest-update-1748798 https://www.newsweek.com/nukes-nuclear-weapon-train-russia-u...
  - IAmGraydon 4y ago
    Thank you. People like the above poster are justifiably scared, but it's important to maintain rationality in times like these instead of going into hyper-vigilance mode and seeing every crazy Twitter post as confirmation of the apocalypse.
- IAmGraydon 4y ago
  The entire world is looking for a reason to freak out, so they're seeing big, scary shapes in the clouds. Most mass media would love to see the masses freak out, so the problem is exacerbated. The entire train claim came from some nobody in Poland who had no idea about the context of what they were looking at. This train track is commonly active, and even more so during Russia's nuclear training exercises that occur every autumn. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6605262 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6605262 >"We don't see any practical evidence today in the U.S. intelligence community that he's moving closer to actual use, that there's an imminent threat of using tactical nuclear weapons," CIA director William Burns told CBS News Monday. >"What we have to do is take it very seriously, watch for signs of actual preparations." The nuclear train story came out Sunday and this quote is from Bill Burns on Monday.
  - parker_mountain 4y ago
    >"We don't see any practical evidence today in the U.S. intelligence community that he's moving closer to actual use, that there's an imminent threat of using tactical nuclear weapons," CIA director William Burns told CBS News Monday. is different than "that is not a train used by the nuclear organization, they are not moving weapons, etc " He specifically does not address the claim. Which to me, is a red flag of lying by omission. Personally, I never took the initial story super seriously, and view articles like this suspiciously.
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  Only slightly off topic but Newsweek was purchased by a weird Korean cult similar in structure to Scientology, so you should move them off your "prominent news org" mental map. Several of the higher ups at the org are under federal indictment and the current owner/operator who came in with the cult seems to be a bit of a psychopath. https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/03/newsweek-ibt-olivet-david-jang/ https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/03/newsweek-ibt-olive...
pGuitar 4y ago
lol, who believes the CIA? AKA the Lying agency....
- IAmGraydon 4y ago
  Ahh a conspiracy theorist. You must know all of their dark plans that the sheeple could never see. How original of you. The world definitely needs more people like you.
  - pGuitar 4y ago

doodlesdev 4y ago

IAmGraydon 4y ago
This is the kind of low effort garbage reply that belongs on Reddit.

pshc 4y ago

Person who is definitely not bluffing: “I’m not bluffing.”

rsuelzer 4y ago

The west makes the critical mistake of seeing this conflict as about Ukraine. Putin sees the war as a single front in a much larger pending conflict with the west. He firmly believes this conflict must occur for Russia to have a place in the future geopolitical order 100 years from now. In his mind, there is no distinction, or tactical advantage, between using a nuclear weapon in Poland versus Ukraine. I argue, Putin is far more likely to use a nuclear weapon against a NATO target in a Baltic state than use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. A nuclear attack on a Baltic state would be far more palatable to the Russian people versus using a nuclear weapon against people who are viewed as "Russian". More importantly, he thinks about history in terms of decades and centuries. Using a nuclear weapon within what he considers Russian territory is untenable in the broad historical arc he has created.

throw_nbvc1234 4y ago
Launching a nuke only makes sense if Putin just wants to try and end the world? A tactical nuke isn't likely to change the strategic direction of the war, it's just escalation for the sake of escalation. He's already losing the war. Launching a nuke in Ukraine or NATO does not mean that NATO respond with nukes. They can respond with conventional weapons and end the war within a week. Plus there's a non-zero chance that the chain of command refuses to carry out the order and undermines all internal authority that Putin has.
- rsuelzer 4y ago
  I agree, NATO will never respond with nukes, even if a nuke is launched directly into NATO territory. NATO understands this is a 0 sum outcome. And it's not needed. I think the risk is that those around Putin (regime), and Putin himself to an extent, believe that a world without Russia is not worth having. And to the regime, Putin is Russia and Russia is Putin. The question is, if there is a 100% chance that should he lose this conflict that his regime will collapse and a 99% chance that Russia could survive a nuclear war on equal footing with the west which will he choose? Even a full scale nuclear war will not end the world, many millions, likely billions will survive. It will just be nothing like the world before.

goldcd 4y ago

They key to bluffing, is to not say you're bluffing.